TrackSmart AI: Cumulative Performance Report

Reporting Period: December 18, 2025 – February 7, 2026

Tracks: Gulfstream Park (GP), Aqueduct (AQU), Fair Grounds (FG), Tampa Bay Downs (TAM)

1. Executive Summary: February 7 Update

Volume Expansion: The dataset has expanded to 559 total races with the addition of the Saturday card at Tampa Bay Downs (11 races).
Performance Resilience: The cumulative Strike Rate rebounded to 4% (up from 76.1%). The model delivered an exceptional daily strike rate of 90.9% (10-for-11) at Tampa Bay, significantly outperforming the historical baseline.
Metric Adjustment: The Average Payout held steady at ~$8.41 (virtually unchanged). Tampa Bay provided solid value ($8.28 avg on hits), including two double-digit payouts ($11.60 and $18.20), balancing the lower-priced
Selection Shift: The "Top Pick" remained quiet with only 2 wins. However, the model’s secondary depth was the star of the day; the 2nd Selection captured 4 wins, including key strikes in the Stakes races, effectively driving the day's high accuracy.

The following table reflects the current cycle. All data prior to the Feb 5 update remains consolidated in "Prev. Totals."

AI Rank Wins % of Trend Note Hits
Top Pick (#1)	150	35.1%	Quiet: Continued to yield ground to secondary picks, landing only 2 wins at Tampa.
2nd Selection	127	29.7%	Surge: The primary driver of performance for the second straight day, delivering 4 wins at TAM (including two Stakes races).
3rd Selection	88	20.6%	High Value: Contributed 2 wins at TAM, including the day's highest AI payout ($18.20).
4th			Safety Net: Vital role today, catching the "Vulnerable Favorite" in Race 1 and a

Selection

14.5%

$10.80 winner in Race 3.

Metric Stat Description
Overall Accuracy	76.4%	(427/559 Races) Models winner in Top 4 selections across all conditions.
Top 2 Accuracy	49.6%	(277/559 Races) Primary or secondary choice wins just under half of all races.
Avg Payout (AI Hits)	~$8.41	Payouts remain stable with consistent value discovery at Tampa Bay ($8.28 avg).

Tampa Bay Downs (Stakes Dominance & Value)

Stakes Dominance: The AI performed exceptionally well in the feature races, identifying the winner within the Top 2 selections for all four stakes (Minaret, Suncoast, Pelican, and Sam F. Davis).
Vulnerable Favorite Survival: In Race 1, the AI flagged the eventual winner (#9) as a "Vulnerable Favorite" due to surface concerns but kept him ranked 4th due to This defensive ranking successfully saved the strike rate despite the negative trip projection.
Value Captures: The model successfully identified significant value overlays that the public underestimated, including Neshume ($18.20) in Race 8 (ranked 3rd) and Concrete Glory ($14.40) in Race 10 (ranked 2nd).
Missed Winner Analysis (Race 9):
The Miss: The AI missed Kokomotion ($23.80), a First Time Starter (FTS).
The Cause: The model penalized the FTS status heavily because the trainer's stats were weaker compared to elite barns (like Chad Brown) in the same The horse was marked as a "Non-Contender" despite a "sharp workout" note.
Adjustment: In future maiden turf routes, the "sharp workout" variable will be weighted more heavily against trainer percentages to better identify live longshot debut runners.