TrackSmart AI: Cumulative Performance Report
Reporting period through – February 1, 2026
Tracks: Gulfstream Park (GP), Aqueduct (AQU), Fair Grounds (FG), Tampa Bay Downs (TAM)
1. Executive Summary: February 1 Update
- Volume Expansion: The dataset has crossed the 500-race milestone, reaching 509 total races with the addition of Sunday cards at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay
- Performance Resilience: The cumulative Strike Rate remains robust at 8%, slightly adjusted from 77.0% as a near-perfect performance at Tampa Bay (8 of 9 winners) balanced a challenging, chaos-filled afternoon at Gulfstream Park (5 of 9 winners).
- Metric Adjustment: The Average Payout settled at ~$8.35. While Gulfstream produced some higher-priced upsets that the model missed, the winners identified at Tampa Bay were primarily logical favorites, keeping the average
2. Daily Performance Breakdown
The following table reflects the current weekly cycle starting January 28, 2026. All data prior to this date is consolidated in "Previous Totals."
|
Date |
Track |
Total Races |
Top 4 Strike Rate |
1st Pick |
2nd Pick |
3rd Pick |
4th Pick |
Avg Payout (AI Hits) |
|
Prev. Totals |
ALL |
432 |
77.3% |
122 |
94 |
67 |
51 |
~$8.65 |
|
Jan 28 |
TAM |
9 |
88.9% |
1 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
$10.19 |
|
Jan 29 |
FG |
9 |
77.8% |
2 |
3 |
0 |
2 |
$7.43 |
|
Jan 29 |
GP |
10 |
80.0% |
4 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
$7.55 |
|
Jan 30 |
TAM |
9 |
55.6% |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
$5.04 |
|
Jan 30 |
GP |
10 |
60.0% |
1 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
$6.27 |
|
Jan 31 |
GP |
12 |
75.0% |
4 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
$4.62 |
|
Feb 01 |
GP |
9 |
55.6% |
3 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
$6.40 |
|
Feb 01 |
TAM |
9 |
88.9% |
5 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
$5.58 |
|
NEW TOTALS |
ALL |
509 |
76.8% |
143 |
115 |
76 |
57 |
~$8.35 |
3. Winner Distribution by Rank (Cumulative)
|
AI Rank |
Wins |
% of Hits |
Trend Note |
|
(#1) Top Pick |
143 |
36.6% |
Dominant Performance: surged today with 8 total wins across both tracks, including 5 at Tampa Bay alone. |
|
2nd Selection |
115 |
29.4% |
Steady Contribution: added 3 wins today, serving as a reliable backup at Gulfstream (Races 1 & 3). |
|
3rd Selection |
76 |
19.4% |
Quiet Day: No wins recorded in this slot today; winners tended to be either top choices or deeper alternates. |
|
4th Selection |
57 |
14.6% |
Vital Safety Net: Provided 2 crucial wins at Tampa Bay (Races 2 & 8), catching winners the primary logic nearly missed. |
4. Cumulative Statistics Summary
|
Metric Stat Description |
||
|
Overall Accuracy |
76.8% |
(391/509 Races) Models winner in Top 4 selections across all conditions. |
|
Top 2 Accuracy |
50.7% |
(258/509 Races) Primary or secondary choice wins more than half of all races. |
|
Avg Payout (AI Hits) |
~$8.35 |
Payouts stabilized by a mix of favorites at Tampa and mid-range winners at GP. |
5. Daily Observations: February 1 Insights
Tampa Bay Downs (Favorites & Logic)
- Near-Perfect Calibration: The AI was exceptionally sharp at Tampa Bay, correctly identifying 8 of 9 The "Top Pick" was particularly potent, winning 5 times (Races 1, 3, 4, 5, 6).
- Alternate Value: The "Alternate Selection" (Scratch Protection/4th Pick) proved essential in Races 2 and 8, catching winners that were slightly lower on the Power probability curve but fundamentally sound.
- One Outlier: The only miss was Race 9, where a massive longshot ($49.60) returning from a long layoff defeated the logic-based selections.
Gulfstream Park (Pace & Trip Dynamics)
- Strong Start, Chaotic Finish: The model performed well early, identifying logical winners in Races 1, 2, 3, 4, and However, the later races saw significant deviation from projected scripts.
- Pace Projection Adjustments: The model struggled with "pace meltdown" projections in the later In Race 5 and Race 8, the AI anticipated a collapse that would favor closers, but tactical speed/stalkers held up better than expected.
- Chaos Result: Race 6 featured a massive upset ($69.60) by a 33-1 longshot making a wide move that was not visible in the fundamental figures or back-class ratings.
