Track: Aqueduct
Race Date: 12/31/2025
Prepared By: TrackSmart AI’s Advanced Artificial Intelligence Racing Engine
Every race features AI-driven pace projections, Top 3 win contenders, and upset alerts — designed exclusively for players at SaratogaBets, BataviaBets, EmpireCityBets, and Capital OTB.
Race 1 — SMdn 80k / $80,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #8
Combined Win % (Top 3): 80%
AI Pace Projection: A fast and contested pace scenario is projected with Combat Mission (#6) and Where's Your Boom (#7) engaging early. This creates a favorable setup for stalkers sitting just off the lead.
The Machine’s Selections
#3 — Twenty One Red
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 32%
Why the AI likes this horse: He presents a formidable profile with the highest TrackSmart Power rating in the field. The turf-to-dirt angle is significant here, supported by a strong speed figure of 87T and a highly effective trainer/jockey combination.
#6 — Combat Mission
TPN: 99 | Win Probability: 30%
Angle: Dropping from a $500k stakes race to a state-bred maiden creates a massive class advantage. He owns the top dirt speed figure in the group and shows clear intent with this placement.
#1 — Tizlawry
TPN: 92 | Win Probability: 18%
Angle: Despite a visually poor last effort, forensic analysis identifies a valid "Bad Trip" excuse due to an awkward start. His prior form on turf (83) suggests he fits competitively here if he breaks cleanly from the rail.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Twenty One Red offers the best value proposition against the likely favorite, Combat Mission. While Combat Mission has the class edge, Twenty One Red's surface switch and speed figures make him the tactical choice in a competitive opener.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #7 — Where's Your Boom
TPN: 91 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: Adds blinkers today and hails from an elite barn (55% win rate). He will be part of the early pace but needs to prove he can hold off the closers.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 2 — SMdn 80k / $80,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #6
Combined Win % (Top 3): 73%
AI Pace Projection: Pride of the Union (#4) projects to control the pace from the outside, pressing the likely early leader Bootsy's a Rascal (#3). The pace should be honest, potentially setting up a duel.
The Machine’s Selections
#4 — Pride of the Union
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 35%
Why the AI likes this horse: He dominates the Algo Ratings with the field's best speed figure (84) and a bullet workout indicating readiness. His tactical speed allows him to sit a perfect trip just off the early leader.
#2 — Mission Critical
TPN: 96 | Win Probability: 28%
Angle: A classic "Second Off Layoff" improver who showed massive progression in his last start. The addition of
an elite rider signals maximum intent from the barn.
#1 — Qbits
TPN: 67 | Win Probability: 10%
Angle: A first-time starter from a high-percentage barn with a solid pedigree. While giving up experience, he fits on paper as a logical fringe contender.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Pride of the Union is the clear horse to beat on figures and form. Mission Critical is the dangerous alternative who could take another step forward at a price, making them a strong exacta pairing.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #5 — Calvary Hill
TPN: 63 | Win Probability: 3%
Angle: Shows an improving speed pattern but still lags behind the top tier on raw numbers. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 3 — Alw 50000s / $65,000 / 6.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #5
Combined Win % (Top 3): 81%
AI Pace Projection: A fast pace is expected with multiple runners vying for the front. Sheer Will (#7) has the tactical speed to stalk the duel and pounce, while others may burn out early.
The Machine’s Selections
#2 — Will Not Be Swayed
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 33%
Why the AI likes this horse: Returns 2nd off a layoff with a proven ability to handle dirt, supported by elite connections. His back numbers are superior, and the pattern suggests a peak performance is due.
#7 — Sheer Will
TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 30%
Angle: Earned the highest last-out speed figure (92) in the field, validating his class despite the move up. He sits a perfect stalking trip and offers excellent value potential.
#3 — Maxaluna
TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 18%
Angle: A consistent runner coming off a win who fits well with this group. He should be in the mix late if the pace collapses.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Will Not Be Swayed and Sheer Will stand out above the rest. Will Not Be Swayed gets the nod on the "2nd Off Layoff" pattern, but Sheer Will is the faster horse recently and is a serious threat to win.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #6 — Sassy Princess
TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 15%
Angle: Makes a quick return to the races, signaling physical soundness. Her prior form stacks up well against the lower tier of this field.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 4 — SMC 30000 / $38,000 / 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #7
Combined Win % (Top 3): 73%
AI Pace Projection: Counter Move (#7) is the likely speed but is vulnerable late. Sabby Sunset (#2) and Good Cop (#6) will apply pressure, setting up the race for a stalker or closer.
The Machine’s Selections
#8 — Monte Avi
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 30%
Why the AI likes this horse: He triggers a powerful "2nd Off Layoff" angle combined with a significant jockey upgrade. His last race was a clear prep, and he sits on a big effort today at generous odds.
#6 — Good Cop
TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 28%
Angle: A consistent performer from a top barn who had a legitimate excuse (wide trip) in his last start. He figures to be right there at the finish.
#2 — Sabby Sunset
TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 15%
Angle: Reliable speed figures make him a solid contender for the exotics. He runs his race every time and fits the class level perfectly.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Monte Avi is the sharp value play, offering a prime wagering opportunity on the drop-down and rider switch. Good Cop is the logical danger and arguably the safest horse to hit the board.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #7 — Counter Move
TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: Taking a massive class drop which is a double-edged sword; dangerous if right, but risky. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 5 — Mdn 85k / $85,000 / 1 1/8 Mile (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #2
Combined Win % (Top 3): 80%
AI Pace Projection: A moderate pace is expected with limited true early speed. This favors horses with tactical ability like Hadrian's Wall (#2) who can secure position without being used hard.
The Machine’s Selections
#2 — Hadrian's Wall
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 40%
Why the AI likes this horse: He posted a debut speed figure (90) that is vastly superior to his rivals. With elite connections and a pedigree screaming for this distance, he looks like a standout.
#1 — Ottinho
TPN: 93 | Win Probability: 25%
Angle: Overcame a troubled start in his debut to run a respectable figure. With a clean break from the rail, he is the primary threat to the top choice.
#7 — Double Act
TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 15%
Angle: A well-bred colt from a top stable who ran a strong number two starts back. He fits the class profile and should improve.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Hadrian's Wall is the day's most probable winner based on raw performance data. He simply ran faster in his debut than any other horse in this field has ever run.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #6 — Gulfy
TPN: 91 | Win Probability: 10%
Angle: Had a legitimate excuse in his last start and owns competitive back numbers. A live longshot for the bottom of vertical wagers.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 6 — Clm 30000b / $43,000 / 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #3 Combined Win % (Top 3): 73%
AI Pace Projection: Kerness K (#4) projects as the controlling speed in a race lacking other confirmed front-runners. If he breaks cleanly, he could prove elusive.
The Machine’s Selections
#4 — Kerness K
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 35%
Why the AI likes this horse: He enters 3rd off a layoff with a dominant speed figure on his resume (90) that crushes this field. The pace scenario sets up perfectly for him to wire the group.
#9 — Tarpaulin
TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 20%
Angle: Ignore the "Fell" comment in his last running line; his prior form is right in step with this group. He offers tremendous value as the public likely overreacts to the trouble line.
#2 — Re Markably
TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 18%
Angle: Drops significantly in class from Allowance company. While the drop is steep, his back class makes him a mandatory inclusion in exotics.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Kerness K has a massive speed advantage and likely creates his own trip. Tarpaulin is the clever play underneath or as an upset candidate given his hidden form.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #7 — Let It Ride
TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: Recent change to a high-percentage barn known for moving horses up. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 7 — SOC 45000n2x / $82,000 / 6.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #4
Combined Win % (Top 3): 70%
AI Pace Projection: A pace meltdown is projected. Multiple high-speed runners are likely to duel aggressively, setting the table perfectly for a closer to pick up the pieces late.
The Machine’s Selections
#2 — Munnings Express
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 32%
Why the AI likes this horse: A reliable runner coming in 2nd off a layoff after a sharp win. He has the tactical versatility to sit just behind the suicidal pace and strike first.
#5 — Kay Cup
TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 20%
Angle: Adds blinkers today, signaling aggressive intent. While he has burned money as a favorite recently, his speed figures remain top-tier for this level.
#1 — Mommasgottagun
TPN: 95 | Win Probability: 18%
Angle: Returns 2nd off a layoff for a top barn and gets a favorable inside post. He projects to save ground and capitalize on the expected pace collapse.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Munnings Express is the most reliable option in a chaotic race. However, the projected meltdown makes closers like Mommasgottagun and the deep-closing alternate Intentious very dangerous at prices.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#8 — Intentious
TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: A closer who benefits most from the projected hot pace. If the leaders collapse, he is the one most likely to run them down.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 8 — Clm 10000 / $28,000 / 6.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #1
Combined Win % (Top 3): 62%
AI Pace Projection: Amundson (#9) has superior natural speed and class. He should be able to clear the field or sit a comfortable pressing trip, controlling the race throughout.
The Machine’s Selections
#9 — Amundson
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 35%
Why the AI likes this horse: He is the class of the field, dropping aggressively to the bottom claiming level. His speed figures this year are superior to anything his rivals can produce.
#8 — Emerald Forest
TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 15%
Angle: A consistent veteran taking a logical class drop. He runs the same race every time and is the most likely runner to complete the exacta.
#12 — O P Firecracker
TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: Adds blinkers and possesses enough back class to wake up in this spot. The outside post is a hurdle, but the price should be fair.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Amundson is the day's strongest conviction play. The class relief is substantial, and if he retains any of his back form, he wins this for fun.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #10 — Sin Nombre
TPN: 73 | Win Probability: 8%
Angle: Fits on speed figures but contends with a low-percentage trainer.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
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