Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis of Aqueduct's races, merely go back one page ( after Thursday ).
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
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Graded Stakes - 9/24 - Philadelphia Park - Pennsylvania Derby & Cotillion
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Race 11 |
1.Green Up |
2.Secret Oath |
3.Goddess of Fire |
#1 GREEN UP tries to get one for the thumb this afternoon, and as this one appears to be a completely different animal since stretching out to two turns, we feel it's most definitely within reach. Gal has the ability to send or rate just a bit, and with the lone other speedster breaking from the outside, Irad can try to send this one early on, and if T-Gaff is intent on gunning, then he can take to the two path & lay off her flank. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, T.P. Rolls right along with his graded sand stayers off breaks of 14-44 days @ 8-1 or less ( with Irad & without Lasix ), & the returns for that survey were $5, $3 x 3, $13 & $14. #6 SECRET OATH was by no means embarrassed in closing out the exacta in her last pair, and D.W. has a 4 fer 7 mark with those of this ilk who crashed the fiesta 22-50 days back @ 10-1 or undah ( $11, $8 & $3 x 2 ). #3 GODDESS OF FIRE ( 2nd part of the three headed Pletcher monster ) was a lively runner up in her sole "3rd off the bench" jammie, and seems like a nice "unders" candidate.
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Race 12 |
1.Tawny Port |
2.Cyberknife |
3.Taiba |
We LOVED the effort put forth by #7 TAWNY PORT in the Jim Dandy -- so much so that we wanted to see him back in the Travers. March foal was positively glued to the rail that afternoon, and it's worth noting that all the other dirt winners raced between the two & five paths. Despite that, he stayed on gamely, missing 2nd by only a half. This one has posted dirt Beyers of 86-90-94-99 without the wonder drug, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. From a trainer stat perspective, barn is a crisp 8:6-1-1 with graded stock going long on the main who were ITM 54-58 days back ( sans the "Big L" ) at 15-1 or beneath, and the return on investment for that sampling was $4.20. The more we type... #5 CYBERKNIFE comes in off a troika of successive career best figaros & is hard to knock. #8 TAIBA finished directly behind the above in his sole start off the pine, after being transferred back to Lidocaine Bob, and while logical, we'll keep beneath.
Aqueduct ( Current ): 12-49 ( $49.20 ) Beatable Favorites 1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %: 23-49 ( 46.9% ) ( As of Friday morning )
Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-37 ( $77 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-2 ( 50% ) Favorites Win %: 15-36 ( 41.7% )
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Saratoga ( Final ): 82-417 ( $760.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 7-27( 25.9% ) Favorites Win %: 153-417 ( 36.7% )
Belmont ( Final ): 88-420 ( $563.10 ) Beatable Favorites 7-28 ( 25% ) Favorites Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )
Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 34-134 ( $317.10 ) Beatable Favorites 2-8 ( 25% ) Favorites Win %: 42-134 ( 31.3% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% ) Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):
( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465 ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%) +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68 ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587 ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6% against a 15.6% takeout
Dirt Tracks 2013-22 (All Final):3433-17431 ($29438.80) Beatable Favorites : 417-1530( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6555-17441 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.8% takeout
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 3517-17999 ( $30,258 ) Beatable Favorites : 432-1598( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6565-17685 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9% against a 16.7% takeout
