SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont at Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 9/22
  
  

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #7 Ein Gedi ( Ire )


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont at Aqueduct - 9/22

 

Race  1

1.Lemon Bomb ( AE )

2.Every Time ( AE )

3.Galileo's Jewel ( Ire )

#13 LEMON BOMB (AE) is on the outside looking in, and to be honest with you, we don't see them shipping this one 400 miles in case three horses are scratched, however, June foal would be drawing well, and although the turf pedigree is still unproven at this point, the 470 Tomlinson for the trip is ten points away from the max, and sometimes it's speed that wins these deals -- not necessarily bloodlines. #14 EVERY TIME (AE) ( "Every time you two -- every time!" ) is another who needs a lot of help to make it over to the frontside, but flashed some zip first time out & cuts back today. #3 GALILEO'S JEWEL (IRE) begins her working life today and is monstrously bred for this sorta deal.  OFF TURF: 11(AE)-4-3-9-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, OUR SELECTIONS ARE 9-10-1.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 EIN GEDI (IRE)  NOTE: AS OF 1:38, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-2-4.

 

Race  2

1.Belarus

2.Preposterous

3.Monshun

#6 BELARUS played the fade against softer up north, but cuts back to one turn thus afternoon, and 14% Gus is a nifty 6 for 9 wit =h mid level dirt stock in the 33-49 day bracket, with healthy payouts of $7 x 2, 11, $20, $12 & $14. Note that the J/T combo are on a 4:2-1-1 run of late ( $6 x 2 ). #1 PREPOSTEROUS has yet to finish out of the superfecta on the sand, and is confidently hiked in class off the recent purchase. #5 MONSHUN is up for grabs for the first time and has done well off the bench. 

 

Race  3

1.Rocky Sky ( Ire ) 

2.Creative Cairo

3.Wicked Groove

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #6 ROCKY SKY (IRE) has a nice collection of figaros and has been out of the super but once in nine starts. Reunited today with Prat, who will likely give her a better trip, with the outside slot & truncated field. #2 CREATIVE CAIRO outran her odds up north when besting half of the field at 25-1, and should be in the thick of things once again. #3 WICKED GROOVE bested slightly weaker 26 days in the rear, and Irad picks up the mount as Franco sticks with 'Cairo.  OFF TURF: 7(MTO)-5-6-2-3  NOTE: AS OF 1:42, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-2-7.  NOTE: THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  4 

1.Excalibrate

2.With Know Name

3.M.C. Double R

#10 EXCALIBRATE had blinkers added in the most recent, and although she was up the track once again, there was improved speed shown that afternoon. With the positively awful turf pedigree, we'd like to think the first two starts were meant to give her some experience & bottom, as not only does she switch over to what will likely be her preferred surface down the road, but draws ideally as well. Note that all members of the family tree performed admirably on the brown stuff, and 7% shotcaller is two of six w/maiden claiming dirt dashers who are NOT getting the wonder drug off breaks of 1-33 days ( 58-1 or undah ), with returns of $7 & $15. Things to like in a field with a lot to be desired. #2 WITH KNOW NAME showed precipitous improvement 2nd time out, and barn is 4-10 with dirt stock taking the biggest drop in the game off absences of 50 days or lower ( no juice ), @ 12-1 or beneath ( $3, $8, $11 & $4 ). #1A M.C. DOUBLE R is another available for purchase for the 1st time, and goes over a fast track for the second time. 

 

Race  5

1.Silver Skillet

2.Three Unions

3.Disruption

#3 SILVER SKILLET was a mite green in the bow, but there's been a nice move since, and see below for a synopsis of returnees from that affair. #1 THREE UNIONS gave a good account of herself in the turf debut, and as she's seemingly better bred for the main, we can see a move forward here. #4 DISRUPTION displayed little first time out, but we like that there's no scary drop for an owner not afraid to do such, and six comebackers from that day have amassed a cumulative 6:2-1-1-0 mark from just four sui generis races. This one's a half to present day, Graded Stakes placed runner Kept Waiting, who's 5:2-1-1-1 on the sand, netting more than 150 large. 

 

Race  6 

1.Swashbuckle

2.Deep Cover

3.Me 'n Sap

#8 SWASHBUCKLE is a fairly consistent sort who encountered some trouble in a race that has since yielded two next out winners ( from five runners & four different races, with an avg. BSF improvement of nine pts. per; could be right there with a tidier sojourn. #5 DEEP COVER overcame some trouble to pick up 20% of the pot a month ago, and we see no reason to exclude in this spot. #6 ME 'N SAP is conditioned by a fella who's 2 of 6 with optional sod sprinters who scored less than three dozen days back.  OFF TURF: 3-10(MTO)-4-1-11(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 1:46, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-3-9.   NOTE: THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  7

1.Except Temptation

2.Maybe Later

3.I'm Buzzy 

#11 EXCEPT TEMPATATION (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to face the starter this afternoon, but should that come to bear, would be brought over by a bossman with a nice DRF Formulator stat in play, as over the last 60 months, Albertrani is 12:6-1-2 with allowance/optional turf routers off L/O's of < 40 days ( 40-1 or beneath ), with FAT payouts of $7, $4, $11, $42, $41 & $40. #4 MAYBE LATER bested softer on the first of the month, and could be in the mix once again, despite the rise in class. #8 I'M BUZZY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 10-5-6-2-14(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:57, #5 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.  NOTE: AS OF 1:50, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-5-14. 

 

Race  8 

1.Mosienko

2.To a T

3.Snicket

#6 MOSIENKO shoots for the hat trick here, and as she's coming in off a career best figaro, we'd say it's well within reach. Should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there. #3 TO A T came along nicely to pick up second place money in a near identical spot up in the Adirondacks, and gal has done her best work at this tricky distance. #2 SNICKET is 3 for 7 at today's trip compared to being oh-fer-17 otherwise, and that's reason enough to include. 

 

Race  9 

1.Always Connected

2.Birthday Time 

3.Temerity

#1 ALWAYS CONNECTED hasn't been in action in quite some time, but 16% Weaver just about doubles that batting average with those going short on the gramma off sabbaticals of 65 days or more, who ARE receiving the miracle drug ( 25-1 or beneath ), with a positive ROI in that regards. #9 BIRTHDAY TIME has done some nice work since being transitioned to the blades, and is now back down to the level claimed from two starts back. #6 TEMERITY loses the eye cups while taking the biggest drop in the biz; gets in light as well.  OFF TURF: 1-4-3-2-7  NOTE: AS OF 1:54, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-7-9.

 

Aqueduct               ( Current ):  10-40   ( $41.60 )  Beatable  Favorites      1-3    ( 33.3% )  Favorites  Win %:   17-40    ( 42.5% )    ( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  9-37      ( $77 )       Beatable    Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )      Favorites  Win %:  15-36     ( 41.7% )

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Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3433-17431 ($29438.80)  Beatable Favorites : 417-1530( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6555-17441 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3517-17999   ( $30,258 )   Beatable Favorites : 432-1598( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6565-17685 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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