SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 9/5 - Closing Day - Happy Labor Day !!
  
  

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So so day for us yesterday, with a triad of winners, a $50 cold exacta, and our 1,600th Beatable Favorite selection was a successful one.

Heading into closing day, we're guaranteed to beat the takeout this meet ( with an outside shot at a flat bet profit ), have beaten the grain in our Beatable Favorites category once again, and made lots of new friends this summer, while hopefully imparting some handicapping wisdom along the way.

Thanks for everything.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Saratoga - Closing Day - Happy Labor Day !!

 

Race  1

1.Reign of Thunder

2.Lady Quinn

3.Camp Akeela

#3 REIGN OF THUNDER is one of many firsters starting things out in the final opener of the meet, and although this miss hasn't shown much in the A.M.'s, is the first foal to make it to the races out of a stakes winning dam who scored at first asking, and three other members of the family tree scored 1st time out, while a 4th was photogenic in her 2nd outing -- after being pinched & eased in the bow. Things to like at a big offering. #6 LADY QUINN popped & stopped in the overture, besting only a horse & an ambulance, but gets off the rail today and sheds some tonnage; never underestimate experience in a race such as this. #9 CAMP AKEELA showed little in the debut, but was well backed that day, and we like that there's no scary drop. 

 

Race  2

1.Hyper Speed

2.Eternal Glory 

3.Atlanta's Acuna

Yes, we're aware Zito is on an oh-for-102 streak, we're aware he hasn't won a race on this circuit in nearly two years, and that he hasn't scored with a first time starter OR in a maiden special weight race for at least five years, but if those skeins were to ever end, we could see it being in a race such as #2 HYPER SPEED. Firster is a half to a multiple stakes placed runner who was victorious in his initial dirt attempt, and three members of the family tree won their first or second or third starts, as well. Gelding gets in light, and from a non wagering standpoint, who wouldn't be happy to see Nick get in the winner's circle on closing day ?  #9 ETERNAL GLORY has a nicely hidden bullet breeze on the docket for today's initial foray to the frontside, owns a fat 421 Tommy, draws ideally, and is a half to stakes placed Stoney Bennett ( 17:6-4-2, 307K ). #5 ATLANTA'S ACUNA has a respectable worktab & would be no surprise. #7 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  3

1.Ocala Dream

2.Dynadrive

3.Emaraaty ( GB )

#1 OCALA DREAM has been flat as a pancake in the last pair, but slides inside today, and is a poyfect 2 for 2 when breaking from the innermost two slots in turf routes; chance to rebound. #3 DYNADRIVE has blown up the tote board in his recent duet, ( most recently, for us ) and as he has had two game placings in as many "3rd off the L/O" turf deals, we wouldn't be surprised to see another strong performance -- possibly at decent odds once again. #6 EMARAATY (GB) may come along for a share.  OFF TURF: 1-3-2-4-6

 

Race  4 

1.Mostly Harmless

2.Linn Pier 

3.Clara Belle 

#8 MOSTLY HARMLESS is a maiden facing winners, but has turf numbers that stand up quite well against the rest of the field, and would be absolutely no surprise in getting juice for the second time. #6 LINN PIER gets a positive upgrade in he trainer department, and is another winless runner that can spice things up going one turn on the verde for the 1st time. #4 CLARA BELLE has encountered some trouble in her last couple'a outings, and cuts back this afternoon. OFF TURF: 8-13(MTO)-1-3-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-11-6.

 

Race  5

1.Sister Supream 

2.New York Banker 

3.Spooky Road

#7 SISTER SUPREAM has partraken in the exacta in her last four dirt dashes over a glib surface, and is perfectly drawn for today's second off the layoff engagement. Mild choice in a race ( like many others today ) with no first draft eliminations. #2 NEW YORK BANKER has hit the skids of late & owns a 2 for 9 mark at today's distance of ground. #1 SPOOKY ROAD dropped & popped last out, and is now 2:1-1-0 on the main ( with both of those coming from "inside-ish" slots.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Lookin to Fly

2.Tales of Makenna

3.Fist Full of Dice

#7 LOOKIN TO FLY was fanned extremely wide in the most recent, and although she finished eighth that day, lost by just a bit over two lengths. Mare is 3rd off the shelf here, and lost by just a nose & a head in both similar returns, and the 2:1-0-1 boxscore on the Mellon only adds to the allure. #8 TALES OF MAKENNA has gotten smacked around pretty good of late, but may surprise some folks with a tidier sojourn in this second off the bench heat. #4 FIST FULL OF DICE ( "I don't want this kid looking at that face." ) improved by about 7.9% from a Beyer Speed Figure aspect the only time he went from a 2nd off the shelf to a 3rd of the shelf spot, and could jazz things up a touch.  OFF TURF: 3-4-5-7-13(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Lt. Mitchell

2.Ulumalu

3.Wanna Winna

#5 LT. MITCHELL has a few decent workouts on the tab for today's lid lifter, and owns some decent pedigree as well. 10% clan is on a nifty 12:4-1-3 run with dirt firsters at 29-1 or less ( $10, $17, $23 & $8 x 2, and that includes having gone two for two at the meet. If we can get Luzzi ( winless up here & 4% up here ) & Zito home on the same day, hang up our plaque across the street. #4 ULUMALU ( located on the Big Island ) got beaten up pretty good when facing the starter for the first time, and now goes T to D & 2X to 1X while switching to the main. #9 WANNA WINNA ( chicken dinna ) worked 48 & 4 out of the gate on 8/23 ( 4th best of 29 ), and went for more than 6 times the stud fee at auction.  NOTE: AS OF 11:30, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.War Stopper

2.Grumps Little Tots

3.Gentleman Joe

#5 WAR STOPPER has been kept in jail since the August 17th purchase, and comes right back at the same level from that day's showing. Chestnut chap is one of two in 2nd off the respite spots, and jockey/trainer combo are three fer four on the local sand, with payoffs of $15, $30 & $5 !!  #4 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS is a steady if unspectacular sort who has been in the superfecta in 8 of his last nine. #1 GENTLEMAN JOE is a nibblah by rote ( 35:5-10-6 ), and drops in class off the purchase. 

 

Race  9 

1.Rally Squirrel

2.Voliero

3.Sonic Speed

#4 RALLY SQUIRREL is lucky he didn't lose his nuts after that last stinker, but poses a threat if able to get back to the prior troika. #5 VOLIERO is protected against the claim after being snapped out of a $35,000 event, and could fare better off that disappointment if able to save some ground. #6 SONIC SPEED as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 6-2-9-1-4

 

Race  10

1.Cocktail Moments

2.Big City Momma

3.Shalimar Gardens

#1 COCKTAIL MOMENTS put forth a nice showing when facing Grade Three gals in her lone start off a hibernation, and as this one has been away for three months, you'd have to think something went awry in that odds on defeat. #6 BIG CITY MOMMA has yet to miss a super and should be left in the hopper. #5 SHALIMAR GARDENS was a well clear runner up the only time she cut back in distance, and has won her last pair outside of stakes ranks. 

 

Race  11

1.Forte

2.Bourbon Bash

3.Gulfport

#2 FORTE was a hum drum 4th in the Sanford, but returnees from that race have gone 8:2-1-2-1 in their ( six different ) return affairs, with the two wins occurring in stakes. You rarely see Pletcher runners put forth back to back stinkers, so we're expecting a bettor effort in today's Hopeful. #3 BOURBON BASH improved by about 15% when blitzing special weight foes on Bijou Day, and we see no reason to leave out. #4 GULFPORT has yet to miss the money, and who are we to rock that boat? 

 

Race  12

1.Libery Flame 

2.Cupid's Heart 

3.Toscanova Beauty

Final race of the meet, and we want to thank y'all for your continued loyalty & patronage througought not just this meet, but over the last nine years. Let's go out with a bang !!  #3 LIBERTY FLAME hasn't been seen since finishing up the track in the Stallion Stakes, but has been given some time to sort things out, and was a strong runner up in her one try off a break in the action. #1 CUPID'S HEART hasn't been seen since turkey time, but has been working lights out for the comebacker, and is administered the wondah drug for the first time. #2 TOSCANOVA BEAUTY closes out our race, day, week, and meet here at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Raceway and Capital OTB.  See y'all at "Belmont at Aqueduct" in a week and a half !!  NOTE: ASOF 11:34, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-11-7.   AS OF 12:39, #1 IS NOW OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  8-32      ( $73.90 )  Beatable    Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )    Favorites  Win %:  11-30     ( 36.3% )

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Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3433-17431 ($29438.80)  Beatable Favorites : 417-1530( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6555-17441 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3517-17999   ( $30,258 )   Beatable Favorites : 432-1598( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6565-17685 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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