SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/24


Just about a breakeven day for us here, as we posted our 17,500th race analysis. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #3 Mrs. Boomer

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/24


Race  1

1.Bavarian Creme

2.Mrs. Boomer

3.Capital Gal

#6 BAVARIAN CREME more than outran her turf pedigree when going over the blades for the first time at the end of May, and if you wanted to feel free to prorate that to her best dirt figure ( hell -- even the average of her best two numbers ), then what you have is a # that supersedes anything that anyone in the race has put up. Factor in that this is a 4YO facing 3YO's ( which still means something this time of year ), and you have yourself a single to start out the Pick 5. BEATABLE FAVORITE/2ND CHOICE: #3 MRS. BOOMER was a decent runner up in a strung out field when starting things out on 5/21, and the pedigree tells us the result was likely not an aberration. Main threat to the above. #7 CAPITAL GAL catches a fast track for just the second time & draws ideally. 


Race  2


2.Seeds of Time


#1 MATOULA went coast to coast like butter and toast when facing cheaper ( from the wood ) at Philadelphia Park two dozen days ago, and not only is this miss two fer two right here, but one of those tallies came in her only second off the layoff attempt. Not too much speed signed on, so another wire job is well within reach. #6 SEEDS OF TIME is 3:1-1-0 off a break in the action, 10:3-3-1 right here, and totes the lightest impost of her career. #4 QUASAR has never seen these depths. 


Race  3

1.Most Wanted Man

2.Growth Capital

3.Pivotal Mission

#6 MOST WANTED MAN was in "tight" and "reserved" ( Hmmmmm..... ) in the Oldsmar curtain raising back in February, and was instantly sent to the sidelines & gelded afterwards. Blinks are now a part of the makeup, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a big move forward here. #3 GROWTH CAPITAL has closed out the exacta directly in front of next out winners in both starts to date, gets firm going for the 2nd time, and is now running with the eye cups. Logical, but not a standout here. #2 PIVOTAL MISSION hasn't been seen in a couple of Halloweens, but stakes placed runner was doing fine work way back when, and is another who's now sans tes-tee-klees.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-2-7


Race  4 

1.Sister Linda

2.Mia Bea Star


#6 SISTER LINDA returned off an elongated absence to score by a pole when having the Wonder Drug added, and while a bounce is always possible off something like that, we'd be remiss in excluding versus this lackluster bunch. #5 MIA BEA STAR has outran her odds in five of her last six, and could be coming late with any pace to cut into. #2 CARAGATE is on a 5:1-2-2 streak when going 1X & is reacquainted with the hood today while getting the big "L" for the 2nd time. 


Race  5

1.Lady Mine

2.Gambling Girl

3.Camm' Duke

#4 LADY MINE didn't display much when beginning his working life on the 3rd of the month, but in all fairness, this one is better suited for a fast track than one with moisture in it, and we like that there's no scary drop for this cheaply bred runner. FWIW, mommy was a lively runner up ( 70 ) in her second go round, & of the five remaining members of the family tree, three won at first asking, and two won their followups. Would love to see this one more forwardly spotted early on. #1 GAMBLING GIRL has a nicely tucked away bullet breeze amidst eight other ordinary morning moves, and boasts a 394 Tommy for the bow. #3 CAMM' DUKE has been doing okay in the A.M. and can land a piece. NOTE: AS OF 11;20, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'s 6 & 7 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTFULLY.


Race  6 

1.Pure Bode 

2.Finest Work

3.Khali Magic

#6 PURE BODE has the ability to rate or send, and got her Polaroid snapped the only time she was in a 2nd off the L/O spot. Slimmest of edges in a race with no first draft eliminations. #1 FINEST WORK is 4:2-0-2 on the lawn thus far, and that includes a tally in her lone sod sprint ( beneath today's pilot ). Seven returnees from that day have come back to amass a cumulative 7:1-2-1-1 ledger, but keep in mind that it came in just three sui generis events, and there's an avg. BSF improvement of 7.8 pts. per. #3 KHALI MAGIC completed the exacta at 30-1 the only time she went from brown to green, & has done just fine undernath today's jock.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-2-4(MTO)  


Race  7

1.Peruvian Boy

2.Mister Winston

3.Its All Relevant

#2 PERUVIAN BOY hasn't faced the starter in nearly four flips of the calendar, but is 1 for 5 off a respite ( 2-26 otherwise ) and has never seen these depths. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Weaver is a dreamy 4-6 with second off the claim local dirt stock who haven't been seen in 51-163 days ( $3, $4 x 2 & $7 ). Factor if ready. #6 MISTER WINSTON has the two race winning streak snapped when ambitiously spotted on 5/8, and is back where he should be this afternoon. Perhaps that stinker was used to throw off the scent at the claim box? #4 ITS ALL RELEVANT threw in a rare stinker last month, but was on a monster 18:13-2-1 run just prior to that, and deserves your attention.  NOTE: AS OF 1:59 A.M. THURSDAY WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  8 

1.Front Line Dancer

2.Lord Flintshire

3.Eddie the Great

#4 FRONT LINE DANCER either appreciated the layup, Lasix, blinkers, new jock, hood, or different venue when displaying marked improvement in getting the sheepskin on the 30th of May, and we'll lean his way once again. #5 LORD FLINTSHIRE was a going away winner the one time he was in a third off the bench engagement, and it occurred under today's pilot. 4YO has a nice mark in the Inner, and we like how he was a mite closer to the pace last out. #10 EDDIE THE GREAT was kept too far back by Rosario in the starter allowance deal, effectively losing all chance, and could rebound if able to use some early speed & get into the 1st flight heading to turn one.  OFF TURF: 3-2-10-1(MTO)-9


Race  9 

1.Mrs. Green

2.Wings Like Eagles

3.Gather the Facts

#3 MRS. GREEN was a mite tardy to the party when starting things out two fortnights back, but still managed to split the field at 23-1, and although she may have outperformed her pedigree that day, this $7,500 bred animal went for 32X that amount at Ocala, so has obviously been well meant all along. Mild choice. #8 WINGS LIKE EAGLES rallied nicely to pick up 3rd place bread down in Louisville in the debut, and gets an upgrade in the trainer dept. for today's followup. #12 GATHER THE FACTS adds blinkers off a legit placing in this event two months back, and makes sense.  OFF TURF: 4-7-6-1-2


Belmont             ( Current ): 72-316  ( $426.40 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-21 ( 19.1% ) Favorites  Win %: 116-316 ( 36.7% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )       Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )     Favorites  Win %:  8-26      ( 30.7% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout