SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/19
  
  

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$15 winner & two Rolling Doubles of $155 & $152 yesterday.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #1 Any Minute ( but only if his entrymate declares )


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/19

 

Race  1

1.Saratoga Sky

2.Media Sensation

3.Pivotal Run

Draw a line through the debut of #4 SARATOGA SKY ( as Jimmy Ferraro is not known for having them fully cranked up at first asking ) and the most recent off the turf event, and what you're left with is a turf effort that yielded an adjusted number of 62.5. That # came despite encountering trouble, while wearing blinkers ( which are no longer a part of the makeup ), at a substantially higher level, and after a break in the action. From a DRF Formulator stat perspective, 7% outfit is a tidy 6:2-1-1 with locally based turf stayers at 30-1 or less ( 21-67 days ). The winners came back $18 & $15 and the runner up was 25-1. Johnny V. sees fit to hop aboard. With the exception of one running line from one other runner, #7 MEDIA SENSATION is considered a "Double Beyer Fig" play, in that his last two figaros lay over the rest of the allotment. Factor in a switch to the best rider in the game and a huge drop, and this one is a logical contender. #10 PIVOTAL RUN is in fact that aforementioned "one other runner", and should be left in the mix.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-6-7

 

Race  2

1.Fazaro

2.Prince of Fenton

3.Alite

#5 FAZARO has gone 34-45-61 in his troika of starts on a fast track, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. I would still give this one a shot on the gramma, as he's yet to catch firm ground, but having said that, looks solid w/today's surface switch & slide down the ladder. #3 PRINCE OF FENTON has been fairly steady in his three dirt engagements & returns at the same level from the race claimed seven weeks back. #4 ALITE is a professional maiden these days, but is in solid form these days, and Edmund Pringle ( one of the nicest cats you'd meet on the backside ) has hit the super with 11 of his last 15 dirt runners @ 13-1 or less ( non firsters ).  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 ANY MINUTE ( but only if his entrymate declares ).

 

Race  3

1.Nova Rags

2.He's in Charge 

3.Stage Left

#4 NOVA RAGS hasn't faced the starter in nearly the full length of the calendar, but won a stakes in his sole start off the bench, and Mott is a saucy 4 for 7 with optional sand sprinters ( 4 & up ) at BEL off breaks of 51+ days ( 11-1 or undah ). The payouts were $6, $8, $4 & $3, and we have no qualms with taking a shot at 4-1. #2 HE'S IN CHARGE has partaken in the superfecta in all his dirt starts but one, and well traveled runner makes his 12th start in his 8th different zip code. #1 STAGE LEFT is but a neck shy of being 2-2 in 3rd off the L/O jammies, and has also hit the board in four of five when first to load; digs the joint as well.

 

Race  4 

1.Marinara Sauced

2.Dakota Gold

3.Surprise Boss

#5 MARINARA SAUCED went from zero to hero when closing with a flourish ( picked up 20 lengths from the half to the line ). Fella ran the last 3/8th's in 35 & 4 that day -- which is definitely saying something, as the variant was an extremely heavy 30. Barn having a hell of a year ( even by their standards ), and 5-1 ? Sure !  #2 DAKOTA GOLD will take a ton of money off the back class & BSF's, but beware of the short price off an elongated absence. #8 SURPRISE BOSS is three fer three on the turf, and what the hell's wrong with that?   OFF TURF: 1-4-6-8-7

 

Race  5

1.Bella Conchita ( AE )

2.Synonymous

3.Kemba

#11 BELLA CONCHITA (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to make it over to the frontside this afternoon, but should that occur, would be made available for purchase for the 1st time, while possessing a nice body of work. From a ( limited ) trainer stat aspect, shedrow is two of three when putting their turf stayers up for sale for the first time ( 39 to 67 days ), w/ mutuels of $6 & $24. #4 SYNONYMOUS makes her 3rd start off the L/O & rates a shot if able to get back to the maiden breaker two back. #9 KEMBA is a nibbler by rote ( 18:1-4-5 ) and can land a share.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-1-2-3-6  NOTE: AS OF 11:54, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-9-4.

 

Race  6 

1.Awesome Indra

2.Bustin Bay

3.Prairie Fire

#7 AWESOME INDRA has been quite the popular item at the claim box, as this one has changed addresses after 10 of last 12 starts when eligible for such, and with good cause, as this one always tries her darnedest. Two for three locally, 14:4-5-3 at the trip ( with one of those scores coming in her one pairing with Irad ( who may have to serve a suspension for another flagrant foul, over in Ascot, so check the changes ), and 2-2 when breaking from the oustside, only adds to the 3-6 barn stat w/ first off the claim dirt stock at this level ( 51-65 days ). ( Sorry about that run on sentence. ) #5 BUSTIN BAY is another steady sort who changes hands a lot, and we see no reason to leave out. #4 PRAIRIE FIRE is 4:1-2-0 in 2nd off the L/O spots and absolutely loves it here. 

 

Race  7

1.Grape Nuts Warrior

2.Uncle Curly

3.Danzigwiththestars

#9 GRAPE NUTS WARRIOR hasn't been loaded in the gate since turkey time, but last start was a win ( beneath today's jock ) & he showed in his one start on the Inner. Most timid of selections. #1 UNCLE CURLY has a 5:2-1-0 mark when beginning from the innermost two slots, and is doing good things these days. #4 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS was photogenic in his only "third off the respite" try, and that win ( & one more ) came underneath Looie.  OFF TURF: 10-5-6(MTO)-2-4

 

Race  8 

1.Copper Town 

2.Money in the Bank

3.Absentee

#7 COPPER TOWN is 4:3-0-1 at Big Sandy, 2 for 4 in second starts of a layoff, 2:1-1-0 at today's dx., won his only start w/today's helmsman, and most importantly, this lightly raced eight year old "horse" ( You hang on to those brass one's, Mister Copper !! ) will be led over by a trainer who's 8:6-1-0 with mid level dirt dashers off sabbaticals of 51-63 days ( $5 x 2, $6, $7, $9 & $11 ). What's not to like? #1 MONEY IN THE BANK ( who should be no worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit ), has won all three starts right here and is but a neck shy of a poyfect 5 for 5 when first to load ( with just ONE win overlapping )...that's all I have to say about that. #6 ABSENTEE got his Polaroid taken the last time he had a "For Sale" stickah attached to his butt, and has recently lost his procreating abilities. Completes the triad we'll be using. 

 

Race  9 

1.Half Birthday

2.Shinfull

3.Galaxina

#8 HALF BIRTHDAY gave a decent account of himself when tangling with victresses for the first time, in showing on this oval, and as she's clearly taken to the green stuff, we're seeing the potential for further improvement in this wide open co-feature. There was a voided claim last out, so take a loooong look in the paddock. #10 SHINFULL improved by about 18.3% from her first start to the next, and you're getting 20-1 on an improving runner with Prat hopping on. #4 GALAXINA has done very little wrong thus far, but is poorly bred for this sorta deal; mixed signals, but hoping the dirt speed carries her a long way.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6(MTO)-8-10

 

Race  10

1.Brennan's War

2.Relate

3.Secret Sanctuary

Not really feeling the love here, so tread lightly.  #7 BRENNAN'S WAR nearly went all the way in an identical spot on the 28th of May and makes all kinds of sense once again. #2 RELATE hasn't been seen since late February, but has faced several next out winners & is entered with a tag for the first time. May perk up. #3 SECRET SANCTUARY undergoes a gamut of changes for today's secondary start ( First time sprint, first time gelding, first time blinkers,  first time tag, apprentice to journeyman ) and would need but to find one of those palatable to make some noise here.  OFF TURF: 2-1-12-7-8

  
Belmont             ( Current ): 69-297  ( $406.20 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-19 ( 21.1 % )  Favorites  Win %: 109-297 ( 36.6% ) ( As of Sunday morning ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )       Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )        Favorites  Win %:  8-26    ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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