SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/17
  
  

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Just a couple of average winners & a Beatable Favorite for us here yesterday. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #6 Frosted Bourbon  Race 9 - #11 Bointheback


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/17

 

Race  1

1.Contemporary Art

2.Sahlabiya

3.Personal Best

#2 CONTEMPORARY ART was a gamely runner up in a blanket three horse finish when beginning her working life on Mayday, and the monstrous turf pedigree tells us that the end result was likely not an aberration. January foal should appreciate the stretchout, and Prat fills in for Irad, who's overseas. #4 SAHLABIYA showed just behind the above in the aforementioned bow, and while this one does get a three slot swing in the post position dept., it appears that Flavah Flav had his choice of animals here, and he wisely takes the Bobby Flay runner; looks to be the only one with a chance of upsetting the apple cart. #1 PERSONAL BEST showed marked improvement from her first start to the next, & sheds 2 lb.'s while sliding in a couple'a spots & catching firm ground for the first time.  OFF TURF: 5-4-6-7(MTO)-3

 

Race  2

1.King Moonracer

2.Box of Joe

3.Fast N Fearious

Three solid sets of DRF Formulator statistics, so let's get to 'em directly.  #6 KING MOONRACER: Weaver is a dreamy 4 for 8 with allowance turf dashers off sabbaticals of 68-300 days ( $11 x 2, $32 & $18 ), with a sub category of uno por uno right here. #10 BOX OF JOE: Falcone has his talons out with freshly purchased sod sprinters off absences of < 54 days ( $4, $11 & $9 ). #9 FAST N FEARIOUS: Atras has won with half of his six turf dashers who won less than three fortnights back ( 7-1 or undah ), with parimutuel returns of 7-1 or less ( $5, $11 & $7 ).  OFF TURF: 7-1(MTO)-2(MTO)-3(MTO)-8

 

Race  3

1.Game Theory

2.Simple Sugar

3.Della Lute

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #5 GAME THEORY has outran his odds in his last duet -- hitting the board in each --, and Jones ( merely a 4% conditioner on the norm ) is a sublime 9:4-3-1-1 w/Elmont based dirt entrants at this level who were 1-2-3 36 days ago or less ( $19, $15, $5 7 $7 ). Should be no worse than 3rd here, but Harkie, yo. #2 SIMPLE SUGAR has yet to miss a superfecta on the sand, & just posted a lifetime best # with the re-addition of blinkers. #3 DELLA LUTE has never seen these depths, and has been working decently at a private training center ( for what it's worth ).  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 FROSTED BOURBON has never Beyered higher than a 36 on the dirt, and not quite sure why she was made the favorite.

 

Race  4 

1.Except Temptation

2.Miss Tapirado

3.Eylara ( Ire )

#4 EXCEPT TEMPTATIONS has partaken in the exacta in her last quintet, and from a trainer stat perspective, Albertrani more than triples his normative 12% batting average with allowance turf stock going long against this type beneath the 12-1 watermark ( < 68 days ). The payouts for that survey were a juicy $25, $7, $24, $11 & $12, and there's a sub category of two for two in the Inner. #6 MISS TAPIRADO has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but got her photo taken in her lone try on a firm course; factor if sound. #5 EYLARA (IRE) exits a race where the two who finished directly in front of her returned victress', and rates a puncher's chance.  OFF TURF: 10-2-7(MTO)-3-5

 

Race  5

1.Barbara

2.Highway Queen

3.Write This Down 

Perfect race to go walk the Marmot.   #5 BARBARA ( "That's Babra !!" ) was a gamely runner up when last putting her tootsies on the verde, and won by a country mile the last time she was made available for purchase. Meeeeek selection. #2 HIGHWAY QUEEN scored by a handful in her lone "3rd off the shelf" attempt, and it's encouraging to see the jock stick around, despite the recent flop. #6 WRITE THIS DOWN as bad as bad as any for the show bread.  OFF TURF: 7-5-2-11(MTO)-12(MTO)

 

Race  6 

1.Quality Stones 

2.Khali Magic

3.Pretty Clever

Another race where our listed troika should suffice.  While this may appear to be a hike in class for #1 QUALITY STONES after being claimed for a dime last month, we consider it to be a lateral move at the very worst. Having said that, this one appears to be the clear speed here, and drops a whopping seven pounds off a win --- something we always dig. Obviously, it's all about the break with the bug getting the call. #4 KHALI MAGIC has been extremely consistent over her last seven outings ( 7:2-3-2 ), and has done fine work both at this trip & over this strip. Logical. #2 PRETTY CLEVER has yet to miss the money since switching shedrows and would be no surprise. 

 

Race  7

1.Jannie Mae

2.Mondeuse 

3.Crosstalk

#9 JANNIE MAE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) hasn't faced the starter since turkey time, but takes the biggest drop in the biz & gets the "Big L" for the 1st time. Demand some value in a race that's difficult to hug. #2 MONDEUSE has been a part of the super in both "second off the shelf" heats, and placed in her one start when loading first, Factor in three showings from as many sod sprints ( sans the debut ), and you have the makings of live runner here. #5 CROSSTALK can be forgiven the most recent, ( as she was carried out from the 11 hole ), and merely by doing that, you'd be staring at a pair of decent running lines. Good guy Duggan clicking at an obscene 32% for the year, but yet can't seem to get more horses, because he's not "Big" enough. What a joke.  OFF TURF: 2-1-8-5-4  NOTE: AS OF 5:43 P.M. THURSDY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  8 

1.Fire Sword

2.Three Two Zone

3.Happy Farm

#3 FIRE SWORD hasn't been seen in more than eight flips of the calendar, but owns an unblemished three for three record off "legit" breaks in the action, and one of those wins came underneath Johnny V.; fella got the job done the only time he had a "For Sale" stickah attached to his rump as well. #2 THREE TWO ZONE posted a lifetime best figaro in the most recent, and did such despite being "whipless" late in the game. Bounce always possible, but how do we dismiss? #1 HAPPY FARM is 11:5-4-1 at Big Sandy, and that's all I have to say about that. 

 

Race  9 

1.Flintshire's Rock

2.Addicted to You

3.Southern Civility

#5 FLINTSHIRE'S ROCK has been positively ghastly in her last four sojourns to the frontside, but there's a bullet breeze from Maryland on display for today's comebacker, and best effort came beneath today's helmsman. #9 ADDICTED TO YOU has a few decent adj, BSF's ( for this grouping ) on the page, and could offer some value. #8 SOUTHERN CIVILITY loses the eye cups & picks up Javy for today's second start off the bench. Meh.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-16(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 BOINTHEBACK  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont             ( Current ): 67-278  ( $387.70 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-17 ( 23.5 % )  Favorites  Win %: 106-278 ( 38.1% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )       Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )        Favorites  Win %:  8-26    ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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