SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/16
  
  

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #3 Kershaw


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/16

 

Race  1

1.Wicked Lady

2.Let Her Inspire U

3.Mike's Little Diva

#1 WICKED LADY closed out the triple in the first two starts to her working life back in the fall, and as often happens with the youngsters, was sent to the sidelines for one reason or another. The good news is that this one is shipped northward to face Empire breds for the first time, and is backed by a nice Formulator stat as well. Over the last 60 months, McPeek is a poyfect three of three w/maiden special weight stock not receiving the wonder drug off sabbaticals of 71 days or more ( 8-1 or undah ), with payouts of $13 & $10 & $4. #6 LET HER INSPIRE YOU is another returning off an elongated absence, & although this one has immolated baccala in each & every start, it's difficult to ignore the adjusted figaros, as well as the 4 for 8 trainer stat which has Pletcher at just that with his local runners of this ilk getting juice for the first time ( 51+ days ), & there's a sub category of two fer two right here. #3 MIKE'S LITTLE DIVA starts tings out today, and has a maturity edge over the rest of the lot, while toting along a healthy 375 Tommy. 

 

Race  2

1.Red Revolution

2.Bold Victory

3.Top of the Mint

Not really feeling the heat here.  #2 RED REVOLUTION came from out of the clouds to miss by just a neck when showing directly behind a next out winner after a troubled start vs. weaker, and could handle these with a tidier onset, while catching a glib track for just the 2nd time. #5 BOLD VICTORY by no means disgraced himself when facing victors for the first time, and is at a slightly more palatable level today. #1 TOP OF THE MINT is reunited with the pilot from his only tally & is as good as any for the show bread. NOTE: AS OF 5:29 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  3

1.Jumpster

2.Dontbelate

3.Holdtheflight

#1 JUMPSTER was ( given the lousy pedigree ) poorly spotted on the gramma last out, and gets Rosario in the irons, which is nothing to sneeze at, as although Sciacca doesn't win much ( 7% ), he's won with his last three pairings w/Joel at 28-1 or less ( $8, $10 & $7 ) after being 0-7 in that category. Mild choice. #7 DONTBELATE was as tough as nails in besting cheaper on May Day, and did it from the outside, which is something he appears to dig ( 3:1-0-1 when breaking from the outermost two slots ). Tough to exclude. #5 HOLDTHEFLIGHT closed out the triple in his sole 2X to 1X try & we'll spot him there in this spot.  

 

Race  4 

1.Oak Loves a Fight ( AE )

2.Just a Nyquist

3.Miss Malala

#11 OAK LOVES A FIGHT (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that come to bear, would be taking the biggest drop in the game, while owning an adjusted figaro of 56 in her one turf route ( which sorta fits well here ). Meeeeeekest of selections. #4 JUST A NYQUIST has improved with each passing turf try, and while we'd be remiss in excluding, keep in mind that the worst of the three came over firm ground, so we'll leave beneath with what will likely be short odds. #3 MISS MALALA closed out the superfecta @ 100-1 in her one spin over firm going, and this one has shown decent improvement for Ferraro, who's known for that with his youngsters.  OFF TURF: 9-4-6-10-7  NOTE: AS OF 5:33 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR 2ND & 3RD SELECTIONS.

 

Race  5

1.Dancing Buck

2.Standup

3.Supply and Demand

#2 DANCING BUCK was a dead game wire to wire winner in his only 3rd off the bench engagement ( 95.6 adjusted BSF ), and placed by less than a deuce in a similar spot on the Widener just prior to that ( at 16-1, no less ). Not sure if this is the same animal as last year, so exercise some caution. #6 STANDUP has lost by a total of three lengths in his two "second off a L/O" attempts and looks to possibly be another solid claim by Jimmy, as this one has enough options left to recoup that 35K purchase price from two back. Encouraging to see Trevor stick around. #7 SUPPLY AND DEMAND went 8 wide in an 8 horse field last time out ( NURSE !! ), but still managed to secure 12% of the pot when showing two spots behind a next out winner. Sliding underneath because of the 7 hole.  OFF TURF: 1-4-8-9(MTO)-6  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch in Race 5, #3 will be our 3rd selection.

 

Race  6 

1.Big Bobby

2.Amundson

3.Jemography

#4 BIG BOBBY hasn't been seen since New Year's Day, but this one owns a win & a placing after a "true" break in the action, and Mott is a saucy 9:5-1-2-1 with Belmont based optional dirt stock off breaks of more than 51 or more days at 10-1 or lower ( $11, $6, $3, $5 & $4 ). #1A AMUNDSON found the line first in his sole start when made available for purchase, and positively loves it here, as the 9:4-0-2 BEL mark belies. #6 JEMOGRAPHY has been claimed half the time he's had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and why not, as this one is an exacta machine. Last four wins came beneath today'a jock, and we'll include. 

 

Race  7

1.No Burn

2.Hammerin Aamer

3.Regal Quality

#4 NO BURN all the way for the grand slam. #1 HAMMERIN AAMER owns a perfect "declining" mark on a fast track ( 40:11-7-5 ), has hit the board in his last septet, and is a snappy 4:3-0-1 when first to load; big shot should the top choice falter. #7 REGAL QUALITY is five of nine at the dist., and that's reason enough to include.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 KERSHAW, AS WE LIKE OUR TOP SELECTION THAT MUCH.

 

Race  8 

1.Bahamian Club ( Ire )

2.Linda's Gift

3.Caironi

#3 BAHAMIAN CLUB (IRE) was sent to the sidelines after scoring at first asking down in Oldsmar, but fear not, as Brown is near perfection ( 3 for 4 ) with 2nd time starters/2nd time stayers at this level, who won 70-180 days back ( $3, $4 & $5 ), with a sub category of 1-1 at this locale. #5 LINDA'S GIFT showed nice improvement when winning in her second outing, and while that could have partly been attributed to the Lasix addition, we'd be remiss in excluding -- especially as two of five returnees from that heat won their followups, with an avg. Beyer improvement of 6.3 pts. for the quintet. #4 CAIRONI undergoes some changes today ( Course, juice & eye cups ) and could perk up a bit.  OFF TURF: 1-5-4-2(MTO)-6(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Jullstone

2.Supply Chain

3.Scotto 

#9 JUULSTONE drops in class off a troubled trip while picking up Flavah Flav; unenthusiastic selection in the nitecap. #7 SUPPLY CHAIN ( Really ? ) is a $170,000 auction purchase who can be all yours for about 1/6th of that amount here, and while he must be kept in the mix, it would behoove you to take a looksie during the warmups. #10 SCOTTO hasn't made the races since turkey time, but is 3:1-0-1 off the pine, and Saez sees fit to climb aboard.  OFF TURF: 5(MTO)-3-4-1-2

 

Belmont             ( Current ): 65-269  ( $372.70 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-16 ( 25 % )  Favorites  Win %: 103-269 ( 38.3% ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )    Beatable   Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:  8-26    ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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