SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/12
  
  

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Big Belmont Stakes Day for us here yesterday, as we had a profitable six pack, An Ice Cold $113 Exacta ( along with two boxes of $62 & $64 ), two Ice Cold Doubles of $41 & $37, an Ice Cold $258 Triple, and a successful Beatable Favorite.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/12

 

Race  1

1.Madame Rose

2.Belarus

3.Bunty Windemere

#6 MADAME ROSE is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but has outrun her odds when finishing in the superfecta in her last four starts when made available for purchase, and switches to Luzzi this afternoon, which is fine by us, as he's always been decent on the front end. #5 BELARUS takes the biggest drop in the game today, and Jose sees fit to stick around for today's 2nd off the layoff attempt. #1 BUNTY WINDEMERE has hit the board in one of two dirt tries and is another with some decent early zip. 

 

Race  2

1.Leviosa

2.Bells On Her Toes

3.Let's Be Clear

#6 LEVIOSA has disappointed in the last pair after reeling off three straight, but in all fairness, she broke tardily from the rail in one, and made her first start on the goo in the other. Chance to make amends with an outside draw & a reunion with Louie. #5 BELLS ON HER TOES found the line first in her only "true" second off the layoff engagement, and aside from that is 3:1-0-1 locally; interrupted hat trick well within reach today despite the classs hike. #1 LET'S BE CLEAR comes in today off a career best numero, and completed the exacta in her one dirt start with Franco in the irons.  NOTE: AS OF 8:53, #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  3

1.Hot Peppers

2.Diamond Collector

3.Gimmick

#5 HOT PEPPERS has been freshened up a bit since losing on the sand for the dirst time ( had won all three prior -- with one of those coming from off the bench ), and the recent work tells us they'll have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #2 DIAMOND COLLECTOR secured 20% of the pot the only time he was in this kind of layoff scenario, and seems to have a good rapport with Javy; we dig when a trainer isn't "a-scared" to make an equipment/medication change after a solid effort, and you'll see that the blinks are removed today. #1 GIMMICK is a fairly consistent sort whose lone bad efforts have come off a layoff, or in the debut. 

 

Race  4 

1.Vintage Girl

2.Runaway Rockette

3.Mandy Green

#6 VINTAGE GIRL gave an excellent account of herself when going over the gramma for the first time, and for all her efforts, ended up in a new barn afterwards. Lifetime best poly # just before that tells us that there's some upside with this one on the blades, and we're expecting another solid effort this afternoon. #7 RUNAWAY ROCKETTE was positively ghastly in the most recent, and Morley must've been ill, as he plunked down 30 large for her just before the race. The good news, tho, is that this one is hiked up in class, despite being out of jail, and gal runs sans eye cups for the first time. #2 MANDY GREEN was a good girl when scoring right outta the box, and despite missing the baccala in three starts since, improved from her first turf attempt to the next, and despite being on an 0-26 NYRA run of late, good guy Hennig is able to secure the services of the best rider in the country.  OFF TURF: 1-2-6-4-5  NOTE: #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.   NOTE: AS OF 10:28 MST, DUE TO THIS BEING OFF THE TURF, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-6-7.

 

Race  5

1.Evvie Jets

2.Capital Structure ( GB )

3.Giggle Factory

#1 EVVIE JETS more than outran her 35-1 offering when completing the superfecta at 35-1 when last in action, and did such despite running into trouble with Cancel in the irons ( "I'm shocked...shocked !!". ) As a matter of fact, this one has never been out of the top four on the verde, but still may be overlooked ia bit in this spot. #5 CAPITAL STRUCTURE has been beset by some layoff lines throughout her brief career, but has hit the board in both starts on the ITC, and barn knows how to have 'em prepped. #2 GIGGLE FACTORY ( Nooooo...not Giggles Flintstone, silly. ) is on a 4:2-2-0 run and the ol' grey mare's best work has come at today's distance of ground.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-6-4

 

Race  6 

1.Dancin in Dubai

2.Breaking Stones 

3.A Longlongtimeago

#1 DANCIN IN DUBAI went coast to coast like butter and toast in his lone start on a glib surface, and plunges for today's 2nd off the shelf engagement while picking up Saez. Slight edge in a heat with no first draft tossouts. #6 BREAKING STONES has partaken in the super in 5 of 6, and his finest fast track figaro came underneath this jock, when placing directly in front of a next out victor. West Point has run up the white flag on #5 A LONGLONGTIMEAGO, who went for 120K a long, long time ago, and attempts to recoup some of that with a visit to the basement. 

 

Race  7

1.Vienna Code

2.Malibu Curl

3.First to Act

#7 VIENNA CODE has an 8:2-0-2 at today's distance of ground ( 12:1-1-1 otherwise ), and we like that this one has the ability to send or rate just a bit. Timid choice in a tough race to sort out. #3 MALIBU CURL has been ITM in both starst this annnum, and could be sitting on a goodie for today's "3rd off the shelf/2nd time blinkers" spin. #1 FIRST TO ACT either appreciated the eye cups, new locale, or fast track when grabbing the sheepskin in Ozone Park back in mid April, but we're just betting it's a typical Shug runner improving over time. 

 

Race  8 

1.Cadeau de Paix

2.Freedomofthepress

3.Love's Misery

#10 CADEAU DE PAIX is an extremely consistent sort who is just as well bred for the green as the brown, and the form on the latter just before being given a break wasn't half bad. Seven year old is 4:1-1-1-1 when last to load, and owns a win off the bench while also having done okay beneath Franco. May be a bit of an overlay. #8 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS looks to possibly be another astute claim by Jimmy Ferraro, and was right up on a sizzling opening quarter 29 days back, abd we like that Saez saw enough to make a return engagement. #4 LOVE'S MISERY closed out the tri in her lone cutback attempt ( at 13-1 ) last year, and could be in the thick of things late in the game,  OFF TURF: 3-1-4-2-1A

 

Race  9 

1.Islandman

2.Thergoesmymiracle

3.Fiery Heart

#8 ISLANDMAN hung up an adj. 62.1 ( vs. slightly tougher ) the last time he went from one turn to two -- and did such at 82-1 in losing by just a tad over four lengths. Will need a lot of things to go his way to pick up the lion's share today, but TBH with y'all, it's a real uninspiring allotment, and we've taken wilder swings with worse. #9 THEREGOESMYMIRACLE nearly went all the way at 22-1 when last seen going 1X to 2X and runs sans blinkers for the first time; not hopeless at big balloons. #7 FIERY HEART has received the unkindest cut of all since last facing the starter 2+ months back, and has some famiiarity with today's helmsman.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-4(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 10:37 MST, DUE TO THIS BEING OFF THE TURF, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 11-4-9.

 

Belmont             ( Current ):63-260  ( $364.80 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-16 ( 25 % )  Favorites  Win %: 97-260 ( 37.3% ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )   Beatable   Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )   Favorites  Win %:  8-26   ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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