SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/11 - Belmont Stakes Day
  
  

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Wherever you're taking in the festivities today, remember -- no drinking & driving.  If you can afford to bet our losers -- you can afford the cab ! 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Rce 11 - #1 We the People


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/11 - Belmont Stakes Day

 

Race  1

1.My Last Mission

2.Win for Gold

3.Safalow's Mission

#3 MY LAST MISSION went coast to coast like butter and toast when facing what we would consider to be a tougher allotment on the 20th of May ( a career best effort ), and aside from that , this one is backed by a solid trainer stat as well. Over the last 1,826 days, Vazquez ( 12% on the norm ) is 5 of 12 with male allowance dirt stock who won <43 days back & are 10-1 or less ( $7, $10, $14, $5 & $3 ). #7 WIN FOR GOLD has outrun his odds in both starts to date ( a win & a placing ) and barn is three of six with local male dirt runners at this level who crashed the fiesta 10-49 days back ( no blinkers ) w/payouts of $7 & $3 x 2 ). #4 SAFALOW'S MISSION will be brought over by a trainer who's 2-6 with allowance dirt entrants at BEL, who got the diploma 6-50 days back. 

 

Race  2

1.Uncle Moonlight

2.Set Sail

3.Bright Future

We don't have the best of reads on this deal, so tread lightly.  #2 UNCLE MOONLIGHT lost by less than a length in his lone second off the layoff affair, and got the job done the only time when breaking from the innermost two slots. Lightly raced 5YO has done well beneath today's pilot and has done well at today's trip. #3 SET SAIL went 85-89 in his only two starts on firm ground, so who quite knows where his ceiling is in that regards. #1A BRIGHT FUTURE could have just that, as he was visually impressive when winning the bow down in Hallandale Beach back in March. Factor if fully cranked up. 

 

Race  3

1.Echo Zulu

2.Matareya

3.Dream Lith

First graded race on the day, and we've narrowed down this handful to our listed troika. #5 ECHO ZULU had no palpable excuse for playing the fade in Louisville, but was an unblemished 5 for 5 prior to that ( which includes three wins going 1X, with one of those coming right here. Draws ideally for today's 3rd off the L/O try & can make amends. #4 MATAREYA has really hit her groove of late ( win in three straight ), and we like that those scores came at increasing class levels. Obvious threat to the above. #1 DREAM LITH won her only one turn try over a fast track and can land a share. 

 

Race  4 

1.Leggs Galore

2.Wakanalka ( Ire ) 

3.Regal Glory

#1 LEGGS GALORE has made every call a winning one over her last triad ( one of those came when going from one turn to two ), is three for three in second off the bench engagements, and won her only start when first to load. Things to like at a price. #5 WAKANAKA (IRE) has fared decently since arriving in the States, and is 3:2-1-0 in 2nd off the respite jammies; could be rolling late should any pace duel develop. #2 REGAL GLORY has the sort of "declining" mark that we love to see ( 18:11-4-0 ), as it shows she has a schnoz for the line, and must be left in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 1-3-2-5-4

 

Race  5

1.Max Player

2.Lone Rock

3.Fearless

#2 MAX PLAYER has only beaten home the chase ambulance over his last pair, but we can sometimes be forgiven of pre & post layoff running lines,  and fella has done well here in the past while owning a 2:1-0-1 ledger in 2nd off the absence deals. Meeeeeeeek selection. #2 LONE ROCK is one of the best claims we've ever seen, as after being snagged for 40 large at the end of 2020, this chap has gone on to bank more than a million dollars. Gelding has won his last septet when breaking from the innermost three slots, and is also nearly as perfect at today's trip ( 6:5-1-0 ). #7 FEARLESS has hit the board in nine straight & has a 3:2-1-0 record when beginning from the outermost post. 

 

Race  6 

1.Jack Christopher

2.Chasing Time

3.Provocatuer

#1 JACK CHRISTOPHER returned off an elongated sabbatical to run his streak of perfection to 3 for 3, with one of those tallies coming right here in Elmont. With just one other speedster signed on, it looks like it's this one's race to lose. #5 CHASING TIME adds blinkers today, and could complete a "short & long" exactor ( for those north of the border ). #6 PROVOCATEUR is seemingly improving over time, and comes in off of four consecutive exacta finishes.

 

Race  7

1.Clairiere

2.Letruska

3.Malathaat

#4 CLAIRIERE owns a lovely 8:4-3-1 boxscore at today's distance of ground and lost by just a length and a half in her sole one turn foray. Didn't lose by much to the above down in Oaklawn, and we'll bite at nearly three times the odds. #1 LETRUSKA is 19 for 24 on the sand, but was off the board in her lone local start when breaking from the wood, and has lost his last two "3rd off the layoff" attempts. Her race to lose, but by no means a cinch. #3 MALATHAAT ( 9:7-1-1 ) is two of two off a hibernation, and has that same mark in as many starts when making just one left. 

 

Race  8 

1.True Valour ( Ire )

2.Arrest Me Red

3.Change of Control

Today's 8th is named after a former champion ( who was owned by the man who this turf course is named after ), and for a bit of edification, go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaipur_(horse) . As for the race itself, we're seeing it as a wide open affair with but two first draft tossouts. #3 TRUE VALOUR (IRE) returned off a calendar length disappearance to go pillar to post vs. weaker down in Maryland, and historically, this one has won two of his last three dashes. #5 ARREST ME RED went all the way in his one "third try off a break" heat, and is a poyfect three of three at today's dx.; logical. #1 CHANGE OF CONTROL makes her 36th start this afternoon, but got the job done in her one try from the inside, and did the same the only time she put her tootsies on the Widener.

 

Race  9 

1.Flightline

2.Aloha West 

3.Happy Saver

#1 FLIGHTLINE is a talented but fragile sort ( with two of his three scores coming after a break in the action ), and while we can see this one winning by another dozen or so, we are ALWAYS hesitant to put down serious money on an odds on runner breaking from the inside---after a layoff---when adding weight---and stretching out in distance. Good "Grab a beer and watch" race. #3 ALOHA WEST may have needed the most recent & could be a factor if able to get back to last year's form. #4 HAPPY SAVER is three for three in this zip code when the track comes up fast, and that should be the case, given the forecast.

 

Race  10

1.Highland Chief ( Ire )

2.Adhamo ( Ire )

3.L'Imperator ( Fr )

#8 HIGHLAND CHIEF (IRE) lit up the tote board to the tune of 40 clams when winning the Man 'o War last month, and while we don't like "Missing the wedding & going to the funeral", the 6-1 offering is still solid enough. There's a decent DRF Formulator stat in play, as the 15% shedrow is 7:3-2-1 with sod stayers who won < 48 days back ( 12-1 or less ) that are NOT getting the wonder drug ( $7, $5 & $3 ). #4 ADHAMO (IRE) has hit the board in both outings since arriving in America ( despite wide sojourns ), and got his photo taken the only time he was in a second off the L/O spot. #1 L'IMPERATOR (FR) went all the way when coming back after a three month freshening, and while he won't be getting away with those splits again, at least he draws snugly.  OFF TURF: 3-2-8-5-4

 

Race  11

1.Skippylongstocking

2.Barber Road

3.Rich Strike

Featured race of the day is upon us, and while it doesn't have the sizzle of others in past years, we feel there may be some value here -- especially with cases to be made for going against the top two favorites.  #2 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING merely split the field down in Maryland with no palpable excuse, but nonetheless, the adjusted figaro from that day was a 100.3 -- which would be right in line with some of the top speed figures in the field. We have no qualms in taking 20-1 on a horse cycling nicely ( having improved over his last quintet ). #8 BARBER ROAD loses the eye cups and picks up Joel, who will likely be more focused on giving a better ride than he did in the Preakness. #4 RICH STRIKE ( who should've been 180-1 in Louisville  instead of 80-1 ) was smartly given some time off after the all out miracle score, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 WE THE PEOPLE comes in off a lifetime best performance, but that came when going one turn on a wet track -- for which he's wonderfully bred ( 433 Tomlinson ), and even by prorating that to his best two turn deal, we only come up with a 93.3. Definitely taking a stand against. 

 

Race  12

1.Al's Rocket

2.Nothingtoseehere

3.Cheeky Tico

#8 AL'S ROCKET has yet to miss a superfecta, and The Toddster is 4 of 9 when giving his turf routers ( with Lasix ) that are ridden by this jock, the biggest drop in the game at 4-1 or less. The winners came back $5, $6 & $8 x 2, and that study is for those off L/O's of 67 days or undah. #11 NOTHINGTOSEEHERE was essentially eased in the debut ( had to cross the line, tho, to collect the $3,200 ), but the other four to come out of that race, posted a cumulative 4:2-1-0-1 mark in their next tries, improving by 7 pts. in the BSF department. Colt is slightly better suited for the gramma. #9 CHEEKY TICO drops in class for today's third start off a break, & deserves another shot on the green stuff.  OFF TURF: 1-4-8-6-2  NOTE: AS OF 7:40 A.M. MST, #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  13

1.Theodora Grace ( AE )

2.Dufresne

3.Shamalamadingdong

#13 THEODORA GRACE (AE) needs one to defect in order to face the starter, but should that occur, would be bringing in a solid body of work while switching from a bug to a journeyman. Mild choice. #8 DUFRESNE needs a redemption after finishing in the back half of the pack last time out, and with Johnny seeing fit to ride at 12-1, we would be obtuse to dismiss. #4 SHAMALAMADING DONG "Hit it" when snagging the sheepskin on 4/29, and closes out the loooooong day ( & column ) for us.  OFF TURF: 1-4-7-10-13 (AE)

 

 

Belmont             ( Current ):57-247  ( $318.50 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-15 ( 28.2% )  Favorites  Win %: 90-247 ( 36.4% ) ( As of Saturday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )   Beatable   Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )     Favorites  Win %:  8-26   ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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