SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/10


Chalky day yesterday, with acouple taken off the turf, and even a match race. Nonetheless, we had a three baggerm two Triple Boxes of $267 & $8, and three Exacta Boxes of $57, $56 & $7.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/10


Race  1




These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #4 GASOLINE ( who was bred for slightly more than it takes to fill up the pickup ) showed some Beyer improvement from his first start to the next, and did such despite having to jam on the breaks on the backside and fanning eight wide turning for home. Two of four returnees from that affair came back to win their next starts, with an average BSF improvement of 9.7 pts. per runner. #2 COMMANDPERFORMANCE will be vastly overbet, given the company he's been keeping, and aside from this one's best effort coming right here ( AND having fared well off the bench, this one will be led over by a shotcaller who's 6-13 with mdspwt. sand sprinters not receiving Lasix, off breaks of 51-73 days ( 5-2 or less ). There's a sub category of 1-1 with Jose, but we've seen this type immolate baccala in the past, so will leave beneath. #3 ARTORIUS came along stoutly to pick up 20% of the pot first out, and makes a good deal of sense. 


Race  2

1.Exotic Cat

2.Radiant Gem

3.Public Service

#9 EXOTIC CAT hasn't been seen since early December, but hung up an adjusted 61.9 when last in action, and from a small sampling, 5% Pregman is two of three with turf stayers off breaks of more than 67 days ( maiden claimers AND those who ran on this course ), with mutuels of $14 & $8. #5 RADIANT GEM has a couple of decent running lines to her credit -- including one of the two tries for this outfit. #7 PUBLIC SERVICE is available for purchase for the first time this afternoon, and barn is 9:4-1-1-2 with runners of this ilk who hit the board 43-67 days back, and there's a positive ROI in that regards.  OFF TURF: 7-3-5-6-2


Race  3

1.Easy to Bless

2.Bella Sofia

3.Glass Ceiling

The first stakes race of the day is named after Bed o'Roses, and for some edification on that Hall of famer, please go to this website .  As for t race itself, most people will instinctively narrow this quartet down to three, given the paucity of strong speed figures by #4 EASY TO BLESS, but that's the one we'll side with. We're envisioning a possible scenario where GLASS CEILING may press BELLA SOFIA not wanting that one to steal the race early on with Obligatory sitting chilly in the back of the pack like she did in Churchill. That leaves ( hopefully ) our top selection in a nice stalking spot, and just look at the scintillating morning move last week of 46 & 2. Not only was that the best of 121 moves that morning, but was a full fifth of a second faster than the next, and FWIW, this one has a 4:1-3-0 mark after a bullet, 5:2-1-1 in Elmont, 4:2-1-0 w/Jackie in the irons, and is a poyfect two for two when last to load. Another sensational claim by the veteran, Jimmy Ferraro, as this one has earned more than $155,000 since being claimed for about 1/4th of that. The more we type...


Race  4 


2.Scilly Cay

3.Striking Speed

#2 PRISONER ( by 'Violence' ) is a fragile sort who's had two substantial layoffs among his three starts, but nonetheless, has made every call a winning one, and is backed by a poyfect three for three trainer stat which has Charlie at just that with his second off the claim dirt stock off absences of 52-113 days ( $7 & $3 ). Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #1 SCILLY CAY is three of five off "legit" breaks in the action, & has done decent work at this trip and over this strip' logical. #5 STRIKING SPEED nearly blew up the tote board when being set off at 38-1 a fortnight back, and deserves another shot. 


Race  5

1.Miss Dracarys


3.Messidor ( Ire )

#7 MISS DRACARYS has hit the board in four of her last five, and Drysdale comes with the high heat when bringing over his female turf dashers off breaks of less than 51 days, as he's 5-18 ( $11, $10 x 2, $7 x 2 & $5 ), and there's a sub category of 2 fer 4 w/ those at this level. #8 ZAINALARAB is a million dollar purchase with a lot of wood to chop, but we're assuaged by the 4-10 barn stat when trying the turf for the 1st time with his sprinters who missed the $ less than 51 days in the rear ( $4, $12, $8 & $3 ). #12 MESSIDOR (IRE) is one of two in second off the shelf jamies, and can land a share.  OFF TURF: 9-1-5-6-2  NOTE: AS OF 2:03 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. 


Race  6 

1.Bustin Up



#8 BUSTIN UP hasn't been seen since National Hangover Day, but put forth a solid placing in his sole turf attempt, and is reunited with the pilot from that day. Mild choice in a race that's difficult to hug. #9 DREAMPOINT has several decent efforts on the resume', and while we'd be remiss in excluding, seems to be a bit of a sucker bet on the top end. #4 HEYMACKIT'SJACK nearly went all the way at big balloons when catching firm ground for the first time, and sharp trainer ( leading steeplechase conditioner in the country ) deserves your respect.  OFF TURF: 7-10-3-1-2


Race  7

1.O'Gotten Girl

2.Mischievous Diane

3.Speaks for Itself

#7 O'GOTTEN GIRL hasn't been seen since turkey time, but owns oodles of speed, and pre-layoff helmsman returns, which is something we always like to see. Big shot if sound & fully cranked up, and it would behoove you to take a gander during warmups. #4 MISCHIEVOUS DIANE is another who's been M.I.A. for quite some time, but has yet to miss an exacta, and is now in receipt of the wonder drug for the first time. We like that this one can send or rate a bit. #6 SPEAKS FOR ITSELF destroyed the competition first time out, and the pedigree tells us that the effort by this late bloomer is likely legitimate. NOTE: AS OF 9:46 MST, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-5-8.


Race  8 

1.Outbox ( GB )


3.Loft ( Ger )

We won't be going any deeper than our selected troika here.  #4 OUTBOX (GB) was disappoint in a G3 overseas, but went to his knees at the start that day, and has flopped in his other two "second off the L/O" heats. Seven year old is a neck shy of owning a two for two ledger in THIRD off the respite starts ( with the win coming beneath Hollie ), and runner now totes the lightest impost of his career. Things to like. #2 ABAAN ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there ) has lots of early zip & found the line first in his sole start at today's distance of ground. #1 LOFT (GER) completes the "Bangers/Hot Dogs/Bratwurst" triple based on the 8 for 10 ITM rate.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-5-6 


Race  9 

1.Jackie's Warrior

2.Baby Yoda

3.Night Time

We couldn't believe that #3 JACKIE'S WARRIOR was as high as even money on Derby Day, OR that he was able to get away with nearly a 22 & 4 opening quarter as well. It was pretty much a fait accompli at that point, and he looked positively monstrous in the lane. Not that this one needs a positive trainer stat, but the As Man is four for seven with graded stock who won 18-50 days back that are ridden by Joel at 3-1 or undah ( no juice ). #4 BABY YODA has been perfectly spotted to get his confidence back over the last pair, and Mott now sees fit to toss this one back in the deep end of the pool. #5 NIGHT TIME is a fairly consistent sort who can land a share. 


Race  10

1.Bleecker Street

2.Flighty Lady

3.Virginia Joy ( Ger )

#5 BLEECKER STREET completed the career six pack with a last to first win on the 6th of May, and we like how this one has progressed up the Beyer ladder, while also essentially moving up in class. Prat lands elsewhere, and although this is a salty spot, we see no reason the streak can't continue. #1 FLIGHTY LADY is 3:1-0-1-1 on firm ground and finished third in her only start from the inside ( that we can see ), but we'll need Cancel to sit an ENTIRE pocket trip ( none of those 10 wide moves ) to grab a piece. #3 VIRGINA JOY can complete the "All Chad Tri" because of that two for two mark on firm going.  OFF TURF: 6-3-5-2-1  NOTE: AS OF 2:07, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-3-2.


Race  11

1.Miss J McKay

2.Toby's Heart

3.Nevisian Sunrise

#13 MISS J MCKAY was a convincing victress against slightly weaker on May Day, likes this dist., and is 2:1-0-1 when loading last; should be positioned perfectly here. #4 TOBY'S HEART ( dig the name ) got up in time to win a stakes down in Louisville three dozen days back, and with a few front end types signed on, could be coming late should a pace duel develop. #12 NEVISIAN SUNRISE was photogenic in her only 2nd off a hiatus deal & has crashed the fiesta in both outings on the Widener. Consistent sort needs to be left in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 3-1-8-7-6

Belmont             ( Current ):55-236  ( $308.30 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-15 ( 28.2% )  Favorites  Win %: 86-227 ( 36.4% ) ( As of Friday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )       Beatable   Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-26    ( 30.7% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout