SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/9
  
  

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We head into Belmont week on a solid note, as on Sunday we had a profitable handful ( $5 x 2, $4, $6 & $11 ), along with a Rolling Pick Five of $666, a Rolling Pick Four of $1,051, an Ice Cold $91 Pick Three, two Rolling Pick Threes of $96 & $252, two Ice Cold Doubles of $17 & $36, two Rolling Doubles of $33 & $202, an Ice Cold $56 Triple, and two successful Beatable Favorites. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/9

 

Race  1

1.Soulmate

2.Reux ( GB ) 

3.Yes and Yes

We don'y have the best of reads on today's opener, so tread lightly.  #6 SOULMATE is 3:1-1-0-1 in 3rd off the layoff turf engagements ( with the winner paying ten bucks & the placing a gut wrenching neck defeat at 47-1 after having a four length lead. Gelding showed a bit more speed in the most recent, and it's encouraging to see Javy climb aboard a runner whop hasn't been less than 17-1 in his last quintet. #1 REUX (GB) hasn't been in action since last Independence Day, but C-Squared knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers, and 5 YO is available for purchase for the first time. #7 YES AND YES has a 4:1-1-1 ledger in 2nd off the shelf deals, & digs the trip.  OFF TURF: 1-2(MTO)-10-2B-3

 

Race  2

1.Aunt Naughty

2.Milan's Girl

3.Spiked

#2 AUNT NAUGHTY has shown improvement with each passing start, and exits a heat where two of three returnees have returned victorious, improving in the Beyer department by 7.5 points each. Meeeeekest of selections. #3 MILAN'S GIRL immolated some baccala first time out, but was a bit tardy to the party that day, and top flight pedigree tells us to give this one a chance to make amends. #5 SPIKED has been freshened up since placing in the Oldsmar bow back in March, and gets Johnny V. for her first New York go round. 

 

Race  3

1.Vergara

2.Myriskyaffair

3.Skims (GB) 

#6 VERGARA has yet to miss the money in any turf attempt, and as the Beyer scale is showing a 53-58-74-74, there's still a chance for improvement here. Recognize that the lone pairing with Looie yielded a win, and miss found the line first in her only start at today's distance of ground. #2 MYRISKYAFFAIR won by a country mile in an off the turf event three weeks back, and more than outran her turf pedigree in her sold sod start just before that. Expecting a good effort. #7 SKIMS (GB) has done nice work since stretching out ( 3:2-0-1 ) and makes all kinds of sense given the last speed #.  OFF TURF: 6-3-4-7-1

 

Race  4 

1.Devil Boy

2.Catching Cupid

3.Sinful Dancer 

#3 DEVIL BOY returned off a 50 week hibernation to finish in the back half of the pack at this level, but in all fairness, got smacked around pretty good at the onset, and there's been a scorching breeze since -- always a positive sign for one who has shown no speed in the afternoons. #5 CATCHING CUPID hasn't been in action since turkey time, but has since received the unkindest cut of all, and now gets the wonder drug for the 1st time. Jockey/Trainer combo have done extremely well in tandem, which adds to the allure. #1 SINFUL DANCER has been setting money ablaze since staring things out last March, as he's lost five out of seven when being favored. Surprised they haven't sought out an upgrade in the jockey department yet, and we'll leave beneath. 

 

Race  5

1.Lady Wildcat ( Ire ) 

2.Alcazaba ( Ire )

3.Talkin Pharoah

#6 LADY WILDCAT (IRE) hasn't displayed much in the A.M.'s for today's debut, but this filly facing colts will be led over by a shotcaller who's three of seven with firsters fitting all this criteria ( any jock ), with payouts of $20, $5 & $4, and note that there's a sub category of 2-2 with Johnny V. legged up. #8 ALCAZABA (IRE) has a couple of decent works on the docket for today's initial foray, and needn't be much to make an impression here. #2 TALKIN PHAROAH ( uncoupled barnmate with our top selection ) was a nicely clear runner up when making it over to the races for the first time, and looms a solid favorite here.  NOTE: AS OF 10:53, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-7-1.

 

Race  6 

1.Born Dapper

2.Devious Dame

3.Girl Bye

We positively love the #3 BORN DAPPER in this spot. Chestnut gal was curiously shipped up to Canada for her overture, and did that after having worked out at Monmouth Park just 6 days prior, so one would have to think there could have been some easier alternatives. 2YO more than outran the poly pedigree when finishing 2nd that afternoon, and if you want to prorate that to her dirt bloodlines, then she positively lays over this grouping. We'll make her our play of the day WITH the caveat that you use #6 DEVIOUS DAME as an exacta saver, based on that one's solid open lengths score in the Churchill curtain raiser. #5 GIRL BYE said just that when drawing away to a 6 1/2 length victory from a disadvantageous post at Hallandale Beach on 4/21, and we like that Meneses comes up for the mount.  NOTE: AS OF 10:57, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-6-1.

 

Race  7

1.Ensemble ( Ire )

2.Eylara ( Ire )

3.Now Yus Cant Leave

#2 ENSEMBLE (IRE) is stakes placed back in England, and by no means disgraced herself when showing her muzzle in the States when closing out the triple off a lengthy absence. Lone second off the bench jammie ended up with a tally, and we'll give this one the nod in a race with no first draft tosses. #5 EYELARA (IRE) was honest enough when showing in he first American outing on the 9th of April, and can move forward in today's second off the break attempt. #7 NOW YUS CANT LEAVE was loved after the recent score, and will now be feared in what we consider to be a drop in class for the followup.  OFF TURF: 1-2-7-9-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:01, #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: DUE TO A SLEW OF SCRATCHES, #4 WILL BE OUR TOP CHOICE.

 

Race  8 

1.Stayhonor Goodside

2.No Nay Hudson ( Ire )

3.Zelenskyy Strong

#1 STAYHONOR GOODSIDE is our second selection today who recently won with Kimura in the irons, and I can pretty much tell you that's never happened before. Like our play in the 6th, this is another who is eligible to do a whole lot better on the brown than the carpet fibers, and like several others signed on, expect this one to be on the choo choo early -- unless they decide to have this one take back a bit & sit the pocket trip. #4 NO NAY HUDSON (IRE) went coast to coast like butter and toast when starting things out in Lexington and is sensible once again. #8 ZELENSKYY STRONG was a visually impressive victor right outta the box at GP seven weeks in the rear, and draws ideally.  NOTE: AS OF 11:05, #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE. 

 

Race  9 

1.Dame Time

2.Queen Quist ( AE )

3.Diamant Damhsa ( IRE )

#7 DAME TIME drops and pops. #11 QUEEN QUIST is on the outside looking in, and while she only bested the chase ambulance in the bow, could dig the cutback while getting in light. #1 DIAMANT DAMHSA (IRE) as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-11-8-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:09, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-10-6.


Belmont             ( Current ):52-227  ( $296 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-15 ( 28.2% )  Favorites  Win %: 80-227 ( 35.2% ) ( As of Thursday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-26    ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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