SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/5
  
  

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #1 Remembermom  Race 4 - #4 Lianna B


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/5

 

Race  1

1.Endowed

2.Flatford Mill

3.No Code

We start out the day with three "tidy but tight" sets of DRF Formulator statistics, and let's get to 'em in a no frills manner.  #4 ENDOWED undergoes a gamut of changes today, and C-Squared is a crisp three of four when giving his second time starting dirt stock the biggest drop in the game ( 14-1 or less ), with payouts of $17, $7 & $3. Four year old has lost his procreating abilities and gets eye cups as well. #5 FLATFORD MILL will be led over by an hombre who's won with half of his eight maiden claiming dirt stock off absences of 53-121 days ( $5, $15, $9 & $2 ) with a sub category of two for two right here. #2 NO CODE is backed by a 4 of 12 trainer stat which has The Toddster at just that w/ his 2nd time starters of this ilk who missed the baccala 34-50 days back. 

 

Race  2

1.Always Charming

2.Motion to Strike

3.Braciole

#2 ALWAYS CHARMING switches back to what will likely be his best surface down the road, and is one of three at today's distance of ground. Jock upgrade in play. #4 MOTION TO STRIKE is in excellent form these days, and barn is a snazzy three of four with mid level dirt stock who where ITM < 44 days back at 12-1 or beneath ( $13 & $7 x 2 ). #2 BRACIOLE won by a pole in his only start with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and is eligible to rebound.  NOTE: AS OF 10:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Fast and Fearious

2.Propensity

3.Stanhope

#1 FAST AND FEARIOUS has done very little wrong in her career to date, and that includes a wire to wire win right here. Not sure why Davis lands elsewhere, but Irad is a more than capable substitute. #7 PROPENSITY has a "what his name is" for nibbling, but gets in light & drops in class. #4 STANHOPE is 3:1-0-1 dashing on the inner and owns a 4:1-2-0 mark with today's jock in the stirrups.  OFF TURF: 3-4-6-2-7  NOTE: AS OF 10:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Spicy Ginger

2.Cupid's Girl

3.Union Lake

#1 SPICY GINGER begins her working life in this spot, and Weaver is a dreamy with locally based firsters at this level ( 11-1 or undah ), with payouts of $4, $23 & $12. Three of the four "researchable" immediate members of the family tree scored at first asking, with the other winning her second start, so we wouldn't be surprised to see this one ready for action; Flavah Flav at a price. #6 CUPIDS'S GIRL has the most experience in the bunch and has posted a troika of decent figaros in as many starts in this zip code. #2 UNION LAKE outran her odds when splitting the field on All Hallows Eve, and five returnees from that deal went 2-2-1 in their followups, with a negligible Beyer reduction of 1.8 points per; Lasix now a part of the makeup. 

 

Race  5

1.Fourway Stop

2.Love Tank

3.Kerry

#4 FOURWAY STOP went for about 1.7X the $75,000 stud fee at Keeneland back in September, and is showing a couple'a nice morning moves for today's overture. Sire hit the board in all three sod synthetic starts ( which we feel translates well to the sod ), and dam/maternal granddam fared well over the green stuff. From a trainer stat aspect, Nevin is two fer four with Belmont firsters at this level NOT getting the wonder drug ( $18 & $62 ). #6 LOVE TANK is displaying a gate breeze on the docket for today's lid lifter but went for less than the breeding fee at auction; take a peek in the paddock. #2 KERRY got squeezed at the start when debuting last month, and deserves another shot.  OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-5-2-3-10

 

Race  6 

1.Cajun Commander

2.Life Changer

3.Victory Built

#6 CAJUN COMMANDER overcame a touch of trouble to pick up 12% of the pot right here two fortnights back, and seems to outrun his odds more often than not. Slight edge in a race with no first draft eliminations. #4 LIFE CHANGER has partaken in the superfecta in all his starts but one, and both wins have come over this oval. #1 VICTORY BUILT is two of four at BEL and oh-fer-30 elsewhere; that's reason enough to include.  NOTE: AS OF 10:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Handle the Truth

2.Hideout

3.Classic Vinman 

Best betting race of the meet thus far.  #7 HANDLE THE TRUTH was in the rear with the gear last time out, but was likely hustled into that salty event to male the race go, and returns to a level where she placed at 37-1 two starts prior to that. Underrated Metivier wins just 5% of the time, but he's 3-14 ( 21.4% ) with mid level dirt dashers who missed the board less than 34 days in the rear at 30-1 or less ( $17, $22 & $5 ). There's a sub category of 1 for 3 right here, and what makes that stat interesting is that teh barn is 0-1 with those who were IN the money when last seen. #13 HIDEOUT is 2:1-0-1 in both starts over a fast track, and although the #'s came back lowish, they adjust decently, and 10% shedrow is two of seven with dirt entrants who missed the board < 44 days past ( $16 & $6 ); Jackie always tries hard for the minor spoils. #3 CLASSIC VINMAN has faced some toughies over her last triad, and Saez is enticed for today's drop in class. 

 

Race  8 

1.Lady Rockstar ( GB )

2.Federalist Papers

3.Flanigan's Cove

Don't have the best of reads here, so tread lightly. #4 LADY ROCKSTAR (GB) was visually impressive when winning her first start in the States, and completed the triple in her only "second off the break" jammie. Mild choice. #2 FEDERALIST PAPERS encountered a boatload of traffic in her lone pairing with Franco, but overcame it to pick up a check and comes in off a nice tally. #3 FLANIGAN'S COVE has improved with each passing start, so who really knows where this one's ceiling is.  OFF TURF: 1-2-6-3-5

 

Race  9 

1.Hilliard

2.Eddie the Great

3.Reckless Spirit

#1 HILLIARD was an honest runner up directly behind a next out winner in an identical spot back in mid April, and said winner replicated the effort with another score next time out. #3 EDDIE THE GREAT put forth a career best effort when going over the blades for the 1st time, and we'd be remiss in excluding at 15-1...especially with Joel hopping on. #8 RECKLESS SPIRIT hasn't even come close to earning the $185,000 stud fee...or training, breaking, layup fees thus far, and while a financial disappointment, has done his best work at today's dist. & can land a share.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-7-9

  
Belmont             ( Current ):47-218   ( $271 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-13 ( 30.8% )  Favorites  Win %: 76-218 ( 34.9% ) ( As of Sunday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-26    ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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