SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/4


Just one lonely winner, an Ice Cold $20 Exacta, an Ice Cold $10 Quinella, and a $151 Triple Box on a washout of a day yesterday. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #1 Greatest Love  Race 9 - #7 Unanimous Consent

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/4


Race  1

1.Our Jessica 

2.Eau Claire

3.Can't Fool Me ( AE )

#3 OUR JESSICA has been a part of the superfecta in bot turf starts to date, and gets some appreciable improvement in the jockey department this afternoon. Filly catches a firm track for the first time and rates the slightest of edges in an opener with no first draft tossouts. #8 EAU CLAIRE returned off a year and a half hibernation to show directly behind a next out winner at this level on the ITC, and while a regression is always possible, it's encouraging to see the bullet breezes since. #10 CAN'T FOOL ME needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that come to fruition, would be bringing along a resume' that's shown improvement with each passing start. It's a shame to see the last jock get the boot after a solid ride, but Trevor a more than suitable substitute.  OFF TURF: 9-5-4-6-2  NOTE: AS OF 10:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Alfie Solomons

2.Road to Success 

3.Irish Giant

#5 ALFIE SOLOMONS was an impressive $25 victor the only time he was in a 2nd off the L/O situation ( beneath Irad ), and returned off a calendar layoff to flash some decent early hoof down in Lexington. Returnees from said affair have rung up a cumulative 6:2-1-1-1 record from five different affairs, but as this one had a claim voided before being sent to the sidelines, it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. Oh yeah -- from a DRF Formulator aspect, Ward is Batman with his mid level dirt dashers in the 51-71 day bracket at 11-1 or less ( $6, $5, $7, $9 & $11 ). #6 ROAD TO SUCCESS has been kept in jail since the 4/30 purchase, and is now dropped in class after having disappointed that day. #1 IRISH GIANT found the line first in his sole start when breaking from the innermost two slots, & is 4:1-1-1 locally ( w/ the lone blemish coming after an absence ). 


Race  3

1.Prairie Fire

2.Red Pepper Grill

3.Greatest Love

#2 PRAIRIE FIRE has been freshened up a bit since closing out the triple behind a next out winner in early April, and now drops a nickel for today's comebacker. The good news, tho, is that this one has fared well at this trip, over this strip, and off the pine. From an itty bitty survey, barn is two of three with second off the snag dirt entrants at this level off breaks of 51-73 days. #7 RED PEPPER GRILL has won her last pair when up for grabs & one of those tallies came at today's distance of ground. #1 GREATEST LOVE closed out the exacta in her sole "true" third off the layoff engagement, and owns a 2:1-1-0 mark when loading first.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 GREATEST LOVE as barn is one of 10 in all applicable categories. 


Race  4 


2.Not Phar Now


#4 SWASHBUCKLE was a lively runner up when coming from off the bench, and from a trainer stat POV, C-Squared is three of five with optional male sod sprinters who crashed the fiesta 23-67 days in the rear ( $4, $3 & $5 ). Mild selection. #2 NOT PHAR NOW has taken to the lawn like a Toro lawnmower with a win & a runner up finish ( separated by a year hibernation ), and must be left in the mix -- especially with Prat in the irons. #6 ALPHALFA got licked when last seen back in the fall, but has hit the board in both starts after a disappearance, & could be coming late with any pace to cut into.  OFF TURF: 3-5-8-6-1A


Race  5

1.I'll Go All In 



#10 I'LL GO ALL IN didn't display much in the comebacker, but if you feel she may have needed that, then what you have is a 2nd time Lasix runner who posted an adjusted speed figure of 65.6 in her prior turf deal. Price play. #7 VOLEUSE came along nicely to secure 12% of the pot in a similar spot first time out, and did such despite encountering some trouble at the onset. Logical fave. #3 LOLLYGAG has a few decent running lines & could spice things up underneath.  OFF TURF: 10-1-1A-8-7


Race  6 

1.F F Rocket


3.Golani Brigade

#5 F F ROCKET drops for the third time in four outings today, and we like that it comes on the heels of a nice effort over a wet track ( on which he's historically about 7.8% worse than a glib surface ). From a Formulator aspect, Atras is a tough 4:3-1-0 with Belmont based dirt runners at this level who crashed the board a month ago or less ( with today's jock ), and the mutuels for that sampling were $4, $7 & $8. #4 ZAEVION has a 3:1-1-0 ledger in "legit" 3rd off the bench jammies, and hasn't been entered this cheaply in quite some time. #1 GOLANI BRIGADE completes the troika of selections that we'll be using in this heat, based on the 4:1-1-1 record in 2nd off a hiatus starts, as well as being two of seven when loading first. 


Race  7

1.Anador ( Fr ) 

2.Charlee O

3.Mona Stella

#1 ANADOR (FR) returned off a six month sabbatical to close out the exacta when a somewhat overbet 4/5 at Hallandale Beach on 4/21, and from a small survey, Clement is 4:2-2 when cutting back those going long on the lawn at this level off L/O's of 11-67 days ( $10 & $7 ). Another timid selection in a race with just one that was tossed at first glance. #6 CHARLEE O has been in the back half of the pack since winning the debut last July, but gets in light, and could move forward in his 2nd off the shelf try. #9 MONA STELLA has enough speed to last for a sip of beer.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-1-2-12(MTO)-10


Race  8 

1.Air Show

2.Once a Giant


#1 AIR SHOW has ALWAYS been a popular item at the claim box, having changed addresses after 7 of his 8 starts when eligible for such, and why not, as this one has partaken in the superfecta in 11 of 15 dirt tries. We like that Rudy feels confident enough to keep this one protected against another purchase this afternoon, and bay boy has done okay at today's distance of ground. #5 ONCE A GIANT is a bit of an in and outer, but is one of two when making a single left, and catches a track labeled FST for just the second time. #4 COUSTEAU has finished up the triple in both starts after a break in the action, & is another that is claim protected after being bought more than a month back. 


Race  9 



3.Napoleonic War 

#2 DAUNT has posted some decent adjusted figaros thus far, and we like that Bobby Ribaudo eschewed the wonder drug for the return, despite being eligible to get it for the first time. Sole win came in his only start on the Inner, and we'll give this one an upset chance in a small -- but competitive -- field. #5 EMMANUEL goes over the gramma for the 1st time, but the pedigree for the verde is a tad better than that of the sand, and the #'s for the brown stuff are purdy darn good, ain't they ?  #4 NAPOLEONIC WAR is two of two on firm going & has improved w/each passing start; playable.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 UNANIMOUS CONSENT (GB) fills the bill, as we don't see his best Beyer superseding the projection we have for Emmanuel.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-5-3-7-6


Race  10

1.Martini's America

2.Birthday Time


#4 MARTINI'S AMERICA posted an adj. 80.1 in her first try on a firm course, and can be forgiven the next foray, as she got smacked around darn good at the onset. Winter set in after that day, and then she went over "softish" ground in the 2022 turf bow, sooooo, maybe this one can be considered a big time overlay IF able to get back to her best effort. #3 BIRTHDAY TIME showed marked improvement when switching surfaces, and is now up for grabs while securing the services of Flavah Flav. Looks like this $102,000 purchase is priced to move. #10 CADENCIA has missed the super but once in a ten race career, & gets eye cups for the 1st time.  OFF TURF: 5-3-2-8-4

Belmont             ( Current ):45-208   ( $260 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-11 ( 36.1% )  Favorites  Win %: 72-208 ( 34.3% ) ( As of Saturday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-26    ( 30.7% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout