SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/17 - Woodbine - E.P. Taylor
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's full card Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 10/17 - Grade One E.P. Taylor

 

Race 8 

1.Waliyak ( Fr )

2.Etoile ( Fr )

3.Great Island

#1 WALIYAK (FR) comes in today off a sharp win in a Grade 3 at Chantilly ( a race from which she loses four pounds ), has a 6:3-0-1-1 mark when making a left handed turn, and is 3:2-1-0 beneath today's pilot, who travels a long way for the mount. This one will likely be taken to the back and hope there are some quick splits up top. #2 ETOILE (FR) is one of two in "true" second off the bench engagements and has yet to miss an exacta on this course. #8 GREAT ISLAND has been in the money in each & every start, and who are we to rock that boat -- especially as the turf Beyers have done nothing but ascend.  OFF TURF: 2-5-10-1-9

  

Belmont            ( Current ): 42-174  ( $367.40 )  Beatable Favorites    5-22( 22.7% ) Favorites  Win %:   54-174     ( 31% )( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-52        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-52     ( 50% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017