SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 10/17
  
  

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Keep in mind, that if you would like today's coverage of the Grade One E.P. Taylor from Woodbine, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #8 Grape Nuts Warrior


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/17

 

Race  1

1.Frost Me

2.Pay Grade

3.Vallarand

#2 FROST ME got beat up a bit at the onset when making her first start off a five month sabbatical, and petered out after making a decent move at the top of the lane. As this one had scored in her lone other start off the pine, we're willing to forgive that performance, especially as the jockey/trainer combo fare well together. #3 PAY GRADE has hit the board in five of six, and if you're willing to discount the lone clunker, then this one has improved with each passing start; logical, especially seeing the two for two mark w/Lasix. Should be no worse than third for all you show punters out there. #5 VALLARAND completes the troika of runners we'll be using in this spot, based on the career best number posted in the most recent.

 

Race  2

1.Emma and I

2.Zerenia

3.Constitutionalrage

#1 EMMA AND I ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) displayed little in the comebacker, but is one for three on the Inner, and may show some improvement for today's second off the layoff attempt. Meeeeeeeeeeekest of choices in a race with no first draft eliminations. #11 ZERENIA hasn't been in action since the first of May, but her lone sod sprint off a break in the action resulted in a decent second place finish, with an adjusted figaro of 67.5. #5 CONSTITUTIONALRAGE popped & stopped in her first try against victress's, but that's never an easy thing to do, and this one now drops a touch. OFF TURF: 10-3-9-1-5

 

Race  3

1.Fenwick

2.Urban Forest

3.Carpe's Dream 

#3 FENWICK has been working extremely steadily for today's first afternoon trip to the track, and aside from the hefty 387 Tomlinson figure for the trip, this one is backed by a crisp DRF Formulator stat which has The As Man at three for five with those fitting ALL this exact criteria at 10-1 or less ( any jock ). The winners in that sampling came back $12 & $3 x 2, and note that of the five immediate members of the family tree which we were able to dig up, four of them went 4:1-3-0 first time out. Take a long look in the paddock, however, as this one went for a precipitously lower amount than the stud fee at auction. #2 URBAN FOREST put forth an honest showing when debuting in the Adirondacks back in August, and the show horse from that day was photogenic next time out, improving by about 19.2% in the Beyer department. #4 CARPE'S DREAM starts things out today with a heft Tommy ( 414 ), a good "purchase price to breeding price" ratio ( 9.3:1 ), a nicely hidden gate breeze ( 48 & 4 ), and some decent pedigree. Not hopeless.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish ! ), DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Good Culture

2.Johnnypump

3.Road to Success

We're not really feeling the steam from this deal, so exercise caution. #5 GOOD CULTURE has been a popular item at the claim box of late ( having changed addresses after three of her last five outings ), and though out of jail by one day, is confidently hiked in class by Linda Rice, who is STILL awaiting final resolution on her license revocation. Gelding has done well at this trip & over this strip, and rates a slight edge. #3 JOHNNYPUMP showed some nice ( Beyer ) improvement when going up against winners for the first time, and uncoupled entrymate with the above is another moving up the ladder. #1 ROAD TO SUCCESS ( spotted yesterday as well ) has yet to miss an exacta and owns some nice tactical speed. 

 

Race  5

1.Devil or Angel

2.Hezastonecoldfox

3.Khali's Dream

These three & no more for all our rolling action.   #7 DEVIL OR ANGEL has hit the board in both starts to date, and after running on the inside in both outings, Donk ( frigid of late ) affixes the eye cups for the first time in hopes of getting this one a bit more clear of the others early on. #4 HEZASTONECOLDFOX was a dead game and decently clear runner up right outta the box two fortnights back, and the pedigree from that day tells us the result was likely not a fluke; decent show wager for those inclined to do such. #1 KHALI'S DREAM was pretty green in the bow, but is a full to one who placed on the gramma up at SAR this summer ( @ 30-1 ), so we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 11-13(MTO)-4-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 5:41 P.M. FRIDAY, #1 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Chulainn

2.Catch That Party

3.Missionatthespa

#1 CHULAINN was a convincing winner over what we would consider to be a tougher allotment at Sar. on the 29th of August, and the adj. figaro from that day supersedes anything that we feel can be out up by any other runners ( but one) today. Chap will need to work out a good trip from this tricky post out of the chute, but has done well when breaking from the inside in the past. We see the #5 CATCH THAT PARTY as the only one with a chance of upsetting the apple cart today based on the four ITM finishes on the grass this year ( from as many tries ) and a J/T combination that do better in tandem than apart. #2 MISSIONATTHESPA ( placed in a Meadowlands race on Friday, so look at the scratch board ) has oodles of early zip, and grey gelding found the line first in his sole start @ this distance.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-3-9-10-1  NOTE: AS OF 5:45 P.M. FRIDAY, #9 GRAPE NUTS WARRIOR WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  7

1.More Graytful

2.Englehart entry

3.Durkin's Call

#3 MORE GRAYTFUL hasn't been led over to the races in about seven months ( after having a claim voided ), but has never seen these depths, and the pre-layoff jock comes back, which we always find encouraging. From a trainer stat perspective, barn has a tight three of five record with locally based mid level dirt equines off sabbaticals of 51-361 days ( $6, $5 & $3 ). Both the #1 I LOVE JAXSON ( in the super in seven straight, while owning a 3-12 mark at Big Sandy ) & #1A DUGOUT ( three fer five at today's dx. ) comprise decent halves of the baby Englehart entry. #9 DURKIN'S CALL returned off the claim/layoff to beat these type on the first of the month, and as he's done well off a respite AND when being the last to load, we see no reason to leave out.  NOTE: AS OF 11;15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Honey Cake ( Ire )

2.Raven's Cry ( Ire )

3.Too Sexy

#3 HONEY CAKE (IRE) came up a bit shot when coming back off a brief freshening, but should move a bit forward off of that effort, and you can expect Bobblehead to have this one on the choo choo once again. Slight edge. #9 RAVEN'S CRY (IRE) is 3:1-0-1 off a break, and as filly was a mite rank when being rated in the De La Rose, we wouldn't be surprised to see Looie outbreak the above once the latches spring. #7 TOO SEXY ( we understand ) always gives a good account of herself, and placed directly in front of a next out winner in her sole attempt on this course.  OFF TURF: 3-5-4-2-8

 

Race  9 

1.Venus Oyzo

2.Lilac Girl

3.Lady Valentine

#4 VENUS OYZO hasn't done much to get the pulse racing over her last quartet, but put up an adj. 73.9 the last time she was underneath Luzzi ( NOTE: As of 10:16 P.M. Saturday, Luzi os not the rider ), and her best turf # to date came when going from brown to green. We couldn't for the life of us figure out why this one hasn't been put up for sale yet, but after some research, saw that she's a half to two Graded Stakes winners and a stakes placed runner. Being she has Street Sense on the topside, we wouldn't be surprised if they were considering her as a broodmare prospect down the road. #11 LILAC GIRL was a sharp runner up 1st time out, and shedrow is a poyfect 3-3 with second time starting maiden special weight turf sprinters who were in the money at first asking ( $8 & $7 x 2 ). #12 LADY VALENTINE has yet to miss the tri, and who are we to rock that boat?  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont            ( Current ): 44-184  ( $383.60 )  Beatable Favorites    5-22( 22.7% ) Favorites  Win %:   56-184     ( 30.4% )( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-52        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-52     ( 50% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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