SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 10/16


Profitable day for us here yesterday, as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until Sunday.

Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the QE II from Keeneland, merely go back one page.  

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/16


Race  1

1.Risky Woods

2.Motion to Strike

3.Mach One

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #4 RISKY WOODS hasn't been in action for quite some time, but has a couple'a decent running lines to his credit, and finds himself at an all time low, while being in receipt of the wonder drug for the first time. Encouraging to see the pre-layoff pilot return. #1 MOTION TO STRIKE showed ( from a speed figure perspective ) some improvement from the first start to the followup, and takes the biggest drop in the game today, while getting acquainted with eye cups. #7 MACH ONE is another sliding down the ladder, and while we'll be using, keep in mind that the "substitute" for Potts has been winless since taking over for the suspended trainer. 


Race  2


2.My Cara Mia Mine

3.Cricket West

#8 ROOSKI got a little better second time out, and did such despite being fanned six wide turning for home. Timid selection. #4 MY CARA MIA MINE had no palpable reason for the poor effort last time out, but we like that there's no scary drop, and will give this one a chance to rebound. #9 CRICKET WEST is another who disappointed after the decent bow, but draws a touch better in this spot, and jockey/trainer combo have fared decently together.  OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-1-10-4-2


Race  3

1.Sharp Prospect

2.Smile Bryan

3.Clear Vision

#7 SHARP PROSPECT has been befallen by three successive layoff lines,  but owns a win & a fourth in both which were on the gramma, while owning a crisp two fer three mark at today's distance of ground. #2 SMILE BRYAN has been kept in jail since the August 26th purchase, and after disappointing that day, is brought back at the same level this afternoon. Gelding has hit the board in both tries on the Inner, but demand some value here. #6 CLEAR VISION went all the way in this race when last in action, so how can we exclude?  OFF TURF: 7-6-8-1(MTO)-1A(MTO)


Race  4 

1.Walder Entry

2.Spun d'Etat

3.Shaker Shack

Both the #1A HEART OF GOD ( two of four at the trip, with the barn being 4:3-0-1 with mid level dirt dashers who were ITM less than 32 days back -- $5, $6 & $8 ) and #1 BRIELLA ( who has never seen this level ) comprise decent factions of the Peter Walder entry. #7 SPUN D'ETAT hasn't faced the starter in more than two flips of the calendar, but takes a substantial drop off the claim when last in action, and has hit the board in 5 of 8 at today's trip. #2 SHAKER SHACK only bested the chase ambulance last time out, but owns a win & a placing in both "true" starts off a hiatus, and isn't it bizarre to see Castellano ride a Chatterpaul horse TWO times in a row?  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  5

1.Happy Hill Lil

2.Show Me the Honey

3.Get the Candy

#10 HAPPY HILL LIL shoots for the hat trick today, and as this one has moved forward in a big way over her last duet, ( including a change of tactics in the most recent ), we'd say it's definitely doable. Gal has proven herself when breaking from the outside, and is facing no worldbeaters in this spot. #4 SHOW ME THE HONEY got smacked around a bit last out, and is second time Lasix here; reunited with the helmsman from her lone tally. #6 GET THE CANDY has enough speed to hand on for a share.   OFF TURF: 2-5-10-1-4


Race  6 

1.Higher Truth

2.Our Flash Drive

3.Harajuku ( Ire )

You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside #5 HIGHER TRUTH, as this one is getting better and better as she goes along. Bay filly cuts back in dx. for the first time in her working life, and has a 4:2-1-1 record on this course. Should be no worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit. #8 OUR FLASH DRIVE was an honest 4th when going two turns on the sod for the 1st time in the Pebbles, and consistent sort should be a bit closer to the action today. #3 HARAJUKU (IRE) gave a decent account of herself when making her first transatlantic journey, as she completed the triple, bringing her mark over firm ground to 3:1-0-2; logical.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-7-6


Race  7

1.American Gentleman


3.Matty's Marauder

We're not really feeling the heat from this jammie, so exercise some caution.  #4 AMERICAN GENTLEMAN has given up the ghost quite readily in his last two trips to the frontside, but is back in with a "For Sale" stickah attached to his butt, and that's of some relevance, as he's 2:1-0-1 when doing so. The score in that sampling was his only third off the layoff engagement, and while there's a low percentage jock aboard, note that he's best when on the front end. #8 LITTERBOX has shown improvement over his last troika and because of such, is confidently moved up in class by Sciacca. Recognize that this one has a win & a showing from as many tries when starting from the outermost two slots. #1 MATTY'S MARAUDER rounds out the top three. 


Race  8 

1.Freedom Machine

2.Adele Kat

3.Creative Legacy

#7 GABBY SQUARED returned off a freshening to put it all together in a diploma earning victory down at the shore, and when it comes to spotting his maiden breakers in a mid level turf route ( off breaks of 57 days or beneath ), Brown is 3 for 4 with returns of $6, $9 & $5. #1 ADELE KAT outran her 34-1 offering when besting more than half the field in her first try vs. winners on the 26th of Sept., and takes an understandable ( albeit mild ) drop in class here. #3 CREATIVE LEGACY hasn't been on the turf since a runner up finish down in the Bayou more than nine months back, and could jazz things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 2-1-8-5-14(MTO)


Race  9 



3.Stormi Cat Lady 

#1 QUANTITATIVEBREEZIN destroyed what we would consider to be somewhat of a tougher allotment two fortnights past, and we see no reason a repeat isn't feasible vs, this weak grouping. All the way. #8 MOSIENKO will be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver to the above, based on the snazzy 5:2-0-2 ledger in Elmont, as well as coming  in toting the lightest impost of her career. #3 STORMI CAT LADY procured the sheepskin off a 3+ month break in the action, and although the # came back a bit lowish, she would be no surprise in cashing a minor check right back. 


Race  10

1.Lemon Taffy

2.Phenomenal Woman

3.Favorite Impulse ( AE )

#5 LEMON TAFFY was grotesque when going long on the lawn a month ago, but cuts back to a sprint while having blinks slapped on for the 1st time as well; filly was a lively runner up the only time she attempted 7/8th's, and it came under the guidance of Saez.  #11 PHENOMENAL WOMAN hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but gets the big "L" now, and the adjusted figaro of 70.8 from that day would work well against this caliber. #1A FAVORITE IMPULSE (AE) needs some good fortune to get loaded into the starting apparatus today, but should that come to bear, would be dropping substantially for today's 3rd off the bench tango, while getting blinkers added.  OFF TURF: 12-8-6-2-13(MTO) 


Belmont            ( Current ): 42-174  ( $367.40 )  Beatable Favorites    5-22( 22.7% ) Favorites  Win %:   54-174     ( 31% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-51        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-51     ( 51% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout