SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 10/15
  
  

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Just one chalky winner on the day yesterday ( along with a 14-1 nose beat ), but we had a couple of Rolling Doubles of $108 & $97, a Rolling Pick Three of $842, and two successful Beatable Favorites. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 Corkman  Race 3 - #2 Hollywood Gina ( but ONLY if her entrymate is scratched )  Race 6 - #3 Sitting Pretty


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/15

 

Race  1

1.Flight to Paradise

2.Deputies Edge

3.Remembermom

#5 FLIGHT TO PARADISE has really hit the skids of late, and Bobby Ribaudo does the sensible thing & drops this one down the ladder a few pegs. 9th different pilot from 10 outings hops on today, and we're thinking Franco will try to have this one more engaged early on for today's surface switch. Timid selection. #1 DEPUTIES EDGE has been light years from the winner in both starts to date, and the punishment for such was the loss of his procreating abilities. Crisp work a baker's dozen days ago helps matters a bit. #3 REMEMBERMOM ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) showed some speed in finishing a decent fourth directly behind a next out winner the only time he raced on a fast strip, and loses the eye cups in this spot.  NOTE: AS OF 7:54 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 CORKMAN fills the bill, as Levine is oh-fer-16 when cutting back his maiden claining stock off breaks of 1-39 days.

 

Race  2

1.Blue Lou Boyle ( Ire )

2.Stanford ( Ire ) 

3.Mr. Vincent

#5 BLUE LOU BOYLE (IRE) ( "I've heard of blue Loue Boyle." -- 'True Romance' ) was an even 4th when facing slightly tougher up north on Bijou Day, and lightly raced five year old got his Polaroid taken the only time he was in a 2nd off the layoff scenario. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Casse is as classy as Freddie Blassie when it comes to his mid level male turf routers ( 4 & up ) in the 59-66 day bracket, as he's three fer four with that type ( $11, $12 & $23 ). #3 STANFORD (IRE) has never been entered this cheaply & closed out the exacta in his only true 2nd off the shelf engagement. Demand a bit of value if possible. #2 MR. VINCENT outran his odds when completing the triple in this race 50 days back, and slides in three slights while shedding 16 ounces off that effort.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-1A(MTO)-2-7(MTO)3

 

Race  3

1.Charlotte Webley

2.Red Pepper Grill 

3.Mazal Eighteen

#5 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY is in pretty good form these days, having hit the board in five of six -- while never finishing worse than her parimutuel offering in the 5 goodies. By prorating that ( second best ) turf number of hers to that of the dirt, what we have is an adjusted figaro that puts this one in the upper echelon here. #1 RED PEPPER GRILL immolated some baccala when being claimed for the 3rd time in her last four times when eligible, but despite being out of jail, Carlito sees fit to slide this one up the ladder a bit, while leaving the eye cups back in the tack room. That last one is of some relevance, as there was a snappy gate move right here on Saturday. #4 MAZAL EIGHTEEN has been up the track in his last duet, and although the initial dirt attempt left a lot to be desired, we always give a runner two opportunities over a particular surface to prove themselves, and as this one has a 377 Tommy for the trip...  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 HOLLYWOOD GINA, but ONLY if her entrymate is scratched.

 

Race  4 

1.Open Til Midnight

2.R Doc

3.Wick Loves a Fight

#4 OPEN TIL MIDNIGHT stretches out for the first time this afternoon, and not only did mommy finish up the exacta the only time she tried such on the sod, but daddy was a sensational 12:7-1-1 doing the same on firm ground, banking more than $1.2 million in the process. We like that there's still no scary drop for this two year old, and are expecting an improved performance. #2 R DOC is wheeled back in a handful of days after a lifetime best #, and as this is the only one signed on who's ever had an early lead, we'll chunk in hoping he gets brave. #10 WICK LOVES A FIGHT rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-8

 

Race  5

1.Pacific Grove 

2.Next Tuesday

3.No More Mischief

#2 PACIFIC GROVE has beaten just two home in as many starts to date, but takes the biggest drop in the business here, and trainer has a Handal on the situation when doing that to his dirt horsies off absences of 30-49 days, as he's three of seven w/ that caliber ( $39 & $6 x 2 ). Note the hood addition in this spot. #3 NEXT TUESDAY is a bit of an in and outer, and good guy Al Gold isn't scared to make them available for purchase for the 1st time. When it comes to cutting back his maiden claiming dirt stock who missed the baccala < 52 days back ( while going green to brown ), Breen owns a two for five record in that regards. #6 NO MORE MISCHIEF is a $225,000 bred animal who went for $95,000 at auction ( Bugger ) and is now up for sale for $40,000 ( Double bugger ). Using because of the pedigree, but caveat emptor. 

 

Race  6 

1.Mayhap

2.Peacebethejourney

3.Mezcal

#5 MAYHAP ( an old adverb meaning "perhaps", and as the dam is "Supposedly", with HER dam being "Allegedly", you now know the play on words ) came along belatedly to lose by just a half'a dozen first time out, and after being 0-14 with his second time starters @ 25-1 or less, Lerman is on a nice little run of late in that area, going 3 for 6 ( $8, $42 & $19 ). Several member of the family tree have done well in their first to starts, so we'll pin our hopes to some appreciable improvement today. #7 PEACEBETHEJOUNEY has ( from a speed figure perspective ) been nicely consistent in her troika of turf tries thus far, and takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged on the 3rd of the month. Maker off to a chilly start at the stand, but we'll be using. #1 MEZCAL split the field against this sort two fortnights back, and the gal who finished just in front of her that day was photogenic when next in action.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-4-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 SITTING PRETTY, as the barn is 0-8 in all apllicable categories,

 

Race  7

1.Invincible Gal ( GB )

2.Alwayz Late

3.Miss Dracarys

#5 INVINCIBLE GAL (GB) is a well travelled sort who has started on nine different ovals over as many trips to the frontside, often giving a fine account of herself. Gal fell short by only a neck in her lone dealing with the Widener, and while she has always been a bit of a nibbler, we feel there's will be enough pace to cut into, to finish strongly. #1 ALWAYZ LATE is another who's accumulated some frequent flyer miles since starting things out, and is a poyfect two fer two with Jose in the stirrups, and that includes a tally in her only heat when being the first to load. #9 MISS DRACARYS completes our threesome that we'll be using in the rollers based on the two career efforts since returning off a brief freshening, with one of those coming right here.  OFF TURF: 11-5-7-10-12  NOTE: AS OF 9:21 P.M. WEDNESDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Patty H

2.Whispering Pines

3.Easy to Bless

This is another affair where our listed selections should suffice.  We have a rare "Double DRF Formulator" stat in play with the #1 PATTTY H here, Over the last 60 months, when it comes to his second off the claim, locally based dirt stock off breaks of three dozen days or less ( 8-1 or < ), Mike Miceli is a tight 2 for 3, and when eliminating the location, and adding Dylan Davis, you have a 3 for 3 stat. The mutuels for that sampling were $10, $8, $5, $9 & $11, and filly is 3:1-2-0 when breaking from the wood ( with both defeats being by just a half length each ). #4 WHISPERING PINES is a logical inclusion given her marks at this trip, over this strip, and with today's jock. #2 EASY TO BLESS hasn't been seen in about nine weeks, but that's the direct result of a gate scratch on August 26th. Three year old had worked well just before that day, and has steadily worked well since. Keep in mind, that when something like that happens, there is a process which involves mandated works for the state vet, and sometimes mandatory bloodwork as well. The process can take up to 24 days -- and then you have to find a spot for the horse. All the while, the owners have to pay an estimated $6,300 just to have the horse eat hay during that time. All that being stated, Ferraro appears to have made another nice claim with this one, who won by a pole in her only "true" start of a respite, and accomplished the same in her sole outing on Big Sandy. 

 

Race  9 

1.Yankee Empire

2.Jerusalem Gates

3.Bricco

Not really feeling the love here, so be careful. #2 YANKEE EMPIRE comes in today off a lifetime best speed figure, and that alone makes him a majah playah in this spot. #1 JERUSALEM GATES has been beset by some layoff lines, but has yet to miss a superfecta and is entered at an all time low. #5 BRICCO lost by only a noggin' the only time he was in a 3rd off the L/O situation, and has done nice work with Looie.  OFF TURF: 5-10-4-9-6

 

Belmont            ( Current ): 40-165  ( $347.90 )  Beatable Favorites    4-20( 20% )    Favorites  Win %:   50-165     ( 30.3% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-51        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-51     ( 51% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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