SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/9 - Keeneland - Three Grade One's
  
  

KevinCoxItem


Another BIG day for us here yesterday, as we had the following...

-An $11,849 Rolling Pick Five

-A $5,274 Rolling Pick Four

-Three Rolling Pick Three's of $1,285, $1,615 & $157

-Three Rolling Doubles of $421, $112 & $74, AND an Ice Cold One of $75

-Two Exacta Boxes of $172 & $11

-Three winners of $4, $6 & $18 ( as we are guaranteed a flat bet profit 'til Sunday )

-AND 3 for 4 in the "Beatable Favorite" department.

Special thanks to an appreciative reader, David N., for paying it forward with an $80 donation to St. Jude.

Let's keep it going !

 

Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Belmont Park, merely go back one page.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Graded Stakes - 10/9 - Keeneland - Three Grade One's

 

 Race 8

1.Abscond

2.La Signare ( Fr )

3.Dalika ( Ger )

We're not quite sure why the #1 ABSCOND is 30-1 in this spot, as the adjusted 95.3 she just put up in the most recent, is but a few points behind some of the top competitors signed on, so right off the bat, there's some value here. As the last two outings were in one turn events, we'll do some prorating to the Distaff at Churchill from Derby day, and that adj. figaro ( 98.3 ) is even better. Four year old will need to work out a perfect trip from the pocket, but we dig the pilot & will swing away. #12 LA SIGNARE (FR) was absolutely awful in the Flower Bowl, but as Bad Santa says, "They can't all be winners, kid." Gal outperformed her parimutuel expectations in the quartet prior to that, and best work has cone at today's distance of ground ( 2 for 6, compared to being 1-14 otherwise ). #11 DALIKA (GER) completes the Pizza/Escargot/Bratwurst triple based on the good speed shown in her turf routes, and a possibility of hanging around for a share.  OFF TURF: 8-4-6-10-8

 

       Race 9

1.Seal Beach

2.Mr. Bouma

3.Costa Terra

#4 SEAL BEACH is a maiden facing winners, but that doesn't matter as much as you might think it does in a race such as this. Maker charge has improved with each passing start ( at increasingly longer distances ), and having said that, is only five points less than the one below from a Beyer aspect -- at nearly seven times the odds !! Recognize that 4 of 5 members of the family tree went 4:1-3-0 the first time they went two turns, with the losses being by less than a length. #2 MR. BOUMA showed some nice improvement when gutsily snagging the sheepskin at Ellis three fortnights back, and the 398 Tomlinson for the dx. tells us there's plenty of room for improvement. #11 COSTA TERRA is a half to Pneumatic ( 2 for 4 when making two lefts ) should appreciate the added ground.

 

       Race 10

1.Brown Storm

2.Argentello ( Ire )

3.Monarch's Glen ( GB ) 

#8 BROWN STORM is a longshot's longshot fer sure, but six year old "horse" ( You hang on to them dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) is 4:1-0-1-1 in 2nd off the shelf turf engagements, and we like the improved speed shown in the 1X turf deal last time out ( at 33-1 ). There is only ONE other entrant with pure front end zip signed on, and should that one on get to the top, well...  #2 ARGENTELLO (IRE) overcame some traffic to lose by 3/4's in his sole KEE start, and aside from that showing, had another one in his only other "second off the bench" jammie. 4 of 8 mark jumps off the page, and this one seems to have some nice rapport with Brian. #9 MONARCH'S GLEN (GB) rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 9-4-1-2-10

 

Belmont            ( Current ): 35-136   ( $306.10 )  Beatable Favorites    2-14( 14.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   39-136   ( 28.7% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-47        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-47     ( 55.3% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017