SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 10/14


Another decent day for us here on Sunday, as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least half the way through Friday's card. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #8 So Suave ( Ire )  Race 7 - 6 Bingo John

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/14


Race  1



3.Big Wonder

#9 ZANNO hasn't faced the starter in more than half the length of a calendar, but chestnut chap owns a win & a third from as many "true" starts off a layoff. Ward sees fit to ship this one up from Kentucky after a sensational 46 & 4 bullet a month back, and recognize the two for three mark when breaking from the outermost two slots ( 0-5 otherwise ). Slightest of edges in an opener with no first draft tosses. #1 CORAGESCONTENDER is one of two in his sole turf dashes over firm ground ( with the loss being by only two ), but will need to find some room late. #7 BIG WONDER has been terribly mismanaged at times through his career, but has enough speed to land a share versus these.  OFF TURF: 3-5-1-2(MTO)-6(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 SO SUAVE (IRE) fills the bill, as C-Squared is 0-10 when making hisnturfers available for purchase for the first time off breaks of 68-114 days. 


Race  2

1.'Miah Entry

2.Cozzy's Attitude

3.Sterling Hill

Both the #2 WICKED BOBBY ( barn 5 for 7 when getting a dirt horse handed to them & bringing them back off a break of 45 to 49 days, with a sub category of 3-3 w/males ) & the #2B KNIGHTLY MISCHIEF ( outfit 16 fer 30 with the same parameters as above, sans the days being 35 to 50 ) comprise decent factions of the Englehart entry. #5 COZZY'S ATTITUDE is showing a positively gruesome comment line from the Aspirant, but nonetheless, the figaro from that day came back well enough for this allotment. #6 STERLING HILL has blinkers added after a recent outing where she outran her 64-1 offering in finishing 3rd, and may jazz things up a bit here. 


Race  3

1.Jake Rocks


3.Supply and Demand 

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 JAKE ROCKS ( who should be no worse than third here for all your rolling action ) is a nibbler by rote ( 24:1-4-5 ) but overcame some trouble to complete the triple in this race last time out, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show bettors out there. #4 COPA found the line first in her only start off the pine, and it's difficult to toss a fella who's won three of his last four, no? #3 SUPPLY AND DEMAND is still protected against the claim despite merely splitting the field at this level two baker's dozen days ago, and now has the hood affixed for the first time; logical contender.


Race  4 




#8 DUCKPHAT outran her odds in a big way when closing out the triple for her first start in Jimmy Ferraro's barn ( who just went over the $12,000,000 mark in career earning the other day ) last time out, and as this one has basically improved with each passing start, who knows where her ceiling is in the Beyer department. Price play. #7 VIVAZANO has done well in one of two turf routes, so we're not quite sure who we're getting here. We like that there's no scary drop ( yet ), & this one showed precipitous improvement when going brown to green and two turns to one. #3 CAUMSETT has a decent overall body of work & is difficult to exclude.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-2-4-9-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.


Race  5

1.Dancing Buck


3.Matty's Express

#9 DANCING BUCK was an honest enough 4th when making his first "legit" start off the bench, and can move up off that performance. Meeeeeeeeekest of selections in a race that's hard to hug. #3 OPT displayed little in the comebacker, but has partaken in the superfecta in all three second off the pine jammies, and lost by only a half'a length in her only foray on the Widener. Demand value here. #12 MATTY'S EXPRESS has some nice early zip & may hang around for a piece of pizza.  OFF TURF: 6-3-4-14(MTO)-7


Race  6 

1.Dom's Feisty Girl

2.Myra Fleener


#2 DOM'S FEISTY GIRL was last seen closing out the superfecta ( @ 33-1 ) at the end of April, but gets a substantial switch in the jockey area today, and from the ittiest, bittiest of surveys, Nevin is two for three when getting a dirt runner & legging up Franco ( 51-301 days ) in this odds range. The winners came back $4 & $8, and gal takes the biggest drop in the biz today. #10 MYRA FLEENER ( a character from 'Hoosiers' ) is entered with a tag below the $40,000 stud fee for today's first tip off, and has some nice bloodlines for today's debut. #7 TASSI has been beset by three successive layoff lines, but is at unseen depths today, and may land a share, despite Harkie being aboard. 


Race  7

1.Pier Forty

2.Fast Break

3.True Palace

#3 PIER FORTY hasn't made the races since late July, but gelding has done his finest work over this oval ( 2 for 8, compared to being a woeful 0-19 elsewhere ), and from a tiny Formulator P.O.V., Noda is 2 of 3 with locally stabled mid level dirt stock off sabbaticals of 51 to 103 days ( $12 & $8 ). #7 FAST BREAK can be forgiven the last duet, as historically, this one has not done much over a wet track, but gelding has been a part of the superfecta in every other start, and Irad sees fit to take the call on a runner dropping to an all time low. #4 TRUE PALACE has done his finest work at this trip & over this strip, and placed at 30-1 in his sole "3rd off the bench" outing.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 BINGO JOHN will be led over by a conditioner who's 0-6 when putting his dirt equines in with a tag for the 1st time, off L/O's of 46-50 days. 


Race  8 

1.Golden Plume

2.Evvie Jets

3.Windfall Profit

#2 GOLDEN PLUME was visually impressive when winning at Oldsmar first time out, but entered the H.P.P. ( Horsewitness Protection Program ) immediately afterwards, and returned to finish a so so 5th up in the Adirondacks on 8/28. Said heat has proven to be a key race, as three of five returnees have come back to win ( in four separate races ). Expecting an improved effort. #1 EVVIE JETS has been a model of consistency throughout her brief career, and new conditioner Kantarmaci must've been doing cartwheels when she put forth a sharp effort in the most recent, as he plunked down a LOT of money that day. Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #4 WINDFALL PROFIT exits the same race we alluded to with our top selection and should give a good account of herself once again.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-3-8  NOTE: AS OF 1:27 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUT TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  9 


2.Sonic Speed


#11 TEMPESTA has had some troubled trips over her last troika, but owns the ability to send or rate just a bit, and note the uncharacteristic bullet breeze since last in action. Could be sitting on a goodie. #9 SONIC SPEED returned off an elongated absence to complete the triple at 18-1, and did such despite getting smacked around a bit. Curious to see Irad take over for Dylan today, but this one may move forward in today's 2nd off the L/O scenario. #7 GIRAMONTE has been a completely different animal since switching surfaces, and takes the biggest drop in the land here; deserving chalk.  OFF TURF: 12-8-6-16(MTO)-15(MTO)


Belmont            ( Current ): 39-156  ( $342.20 )  Beatable Favorites    4-18( 22.2% ) Favorites  Win %:   48-156     ( 30.8% )( As of Monday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-51        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-51     ( 51% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout