SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 10/10 - Happy Columbus Day ! ( In advance )


About a breakeven day for us here yesterday, as our two winners keep us on an 18 for 50 run, and we tossed in two exacta boxes of $80 & $74, along with another successful Beatable Favorite, as well. We're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least the last race on Thursday.

Just a reminder that for today's Grade One selections & analysis from Keeneland, merely go back one page.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #4 Verbal  Race 2 - #3 Illuminato  Race 7 - #2 Hoboken Jack

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/10 - Happy Columbus Day ! ( In advance )


Race  1

1.Nyquest Nix


3.Payback Period ( Ire )

#6 NYQUEST NIX has posted two solid efforts to begin his career, and exits a race where three comebackers have gone 3:1-1-1 in their followup engagements, improving by an average of 10.7 pts. in the process. No worse than 3rd for all you show bettors out there. #9 SKYLANDER only bested one at first asking, but had some trouble at the onset that day and should appreciate today's added ground. #1A PAYBACK PERIOD (IRE) is a late foal, but has positively monstrous breeding for this sorta deal, and completes the lone troika of runners we'll be using in this spot.  OFF TURFL 5-9-1A-8-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have no idea why the #4 VERBAL ( 230 Tomlinsin # ) is 3-1 here.


Race  2

1.Silver Samurai 

2.Raw Courage

3.Heads or Tails

#5 SILVER SAMURAI has oodles of early speed & takes a substantial drop in class for today's second start with eye cups. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. We see #6 RAW COURAGE as the only one with a chance of upsetting the apple cart, based on being put up for sale for the first time as well has having been freshened up for this. We didn't quite now who to go with for the show spot, so went HEADS OR TAILS in using the #2. This one has a 2nd best of 22 gate move on the ledger for today's overture, and has decent Tommy's for today's trip.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: Like the opener, have no idea why the #3 ILLUMINATO ( up the track first time out ) is favored here.


Race  3

1.First Homestead

2.Crea's Bklyn Law

3.Win With Pride

#5 FIRST HOMESTEAD is confidently hiked up in class after the August 29th purchase, and as the 4YO found the line first in his sole start at this distance, we'd say he's nicely spotted -- especially shedding 48 ounces off the tally. #2 CREA'S BKLYN LAW is pretty much of a professional nibbler at this point in his career ( 11:0-4-5 at this locale ) but is running sans blinks for the first time in 47 starts, and as this one has closed out the triple all three times without 'em, we have no qualms about including. #6 WIN WITH PRIDE has won half of his Elmont outings, but had a claim voided last time out, so take a peek in the paddock.   NOTE: AS OF 10:54, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4 


2.Shady McGee ( Ire )

3.Cold Hard Cash

These three and no more for all our rolling action...   #8 ABAAN displayed precipitous improvement from his first turf start to the next, and is a deserving fave after that open length victory. #1 SHADY MCGEE (IRE) has essentially improved with each passing start, since arriving in the States, and could move forward being in receipt of blinks for the first time, as well as a reduction in the weight department. #9 COLD HARD CASH has partaken in the superfecta in six straight, 13 of 14 & 15 of 17; can't fault those wanting to chunk this one into the mix.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3(MTO)


Race  5

1.Poppy Flower

2.Chi Town Lady 

3.Ready to March

#8 POPPY FLOWER ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has yet to finish off the board in five lifetime outings, and she's done such on the dirt, firm turf, and yielding turf. Gal was favored in but one of those events, and draws ideally for today's first try in the graded ranks. #5 CHI TOWN LADY overcame a stumblin' onset to show that the debut win was no fluke, when coming from slightly off the pace to win a stakes up at Saratoga, and the figaro from that day came back quite well. Logical once again. #7 READY TO MARCH went coast to coast like butter and toast right outta the box up at the Lakes four dozen days in the rear, and although the number came back a bit on the lowish side, sometimes these freshmen can improve by leaps & bounds.  OFF TURF: 6-3-1-8-2


Race  6 


2.Spice Is Nice


Featured race of the day is upon us, and for some historical perspective on the Hall of Famer, Beldame, feel free to go to this Wiki page . #4 HOROLOGIST won this race last year ( her only trip on this strip ), and that occurred when going from two turns to one -- just like today. From an itty bitty DRF Formulator standpoint, Mott is two of three with dirt dashers not receiving Lasix in the 48-50 day bracket ( $22 & $6 ), and there's a sub category of 1 for 1 with those coming in off a win. #7 SPICE IS NICE is two of two off a respite ( w/ one of those coming in this zip code ), and Pletcher has that same mark with BEL runners at this level who are NOT receiving the "Big L", off breaks of 51-161 days ( $13 & $39 ). #3 ZAAJEL ( uncoupled entrymate with our secondary selection ) won the Mother Goose in her one and only outing at Bel., and has the same trainer stat as the above -- even when changing the back end of the timeframe to 77 days. 


Race  7

1.Phoebe's Frosty

2.Empire Station

3.El Veinticuatro

#4 PHOEBE'S FROSTY is displaying two bullet breezes on the worktab for today's initial afternoon trek to the frontside, is a January bred, facing mostly younger competitors, is a half to an 18:3-6-2 dirt runner, and is backed up by an excellent trainer statistic, which has this barn winning with half of their eight dirt firsters at this level who are not getting the wonder drug ( $7, $23, $4 & $6 ). #5 EMPIRE STATION gas a nicely tucked away gate move for today's first start, and appears to land in a soft spot. #6 EL VEINTICUATRO was pretty disappointing first out, but is terribly bred for the verde, and could show marked improvement w/the layoff, drop, and surface switch.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 HOBOKEN JACK will be brought over by a bossman who's 0-9 in all relevant categories. 


Race  8 


2.Sacred Life ( Fr )

3.No Word

#5 TEMPLE got his confidence back with a smart win vs. optional foes on this course ( his first trip to the winner's circle in 16+ months ), and has enough back class to him to give him a chance to keep the mo going back in with graded foes; Slimmest of margins. #3 SACRED LIFE has put together a fine resume' since arriving in the U.S. of A. two years ago ( having yet to miss a super ), but is a bit of a money burner, so we'll leave beneath. #9 NO WORD got up in time in his sole "3rd off the L/O" deal, and we like that it occurred on the Inner.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-3-8


Race  9 

1.Brown Entry

2.Bail Out

3.My Boy Colton

Both the #1 DEFFERED TAXES ( two placings from three turf attempts, finding himself at his lowest level yet ), and the #1A DEREGULATION (GB) (AE) ( on a big dropdown, with the shedrow at two fer two when stretching out their maiden claiming turfers for the 1st time, off L/O's of 68-116 days ) comprise decent factions of the Chad Brown entry. #8 BAIL OUT is just about at professional maiden territory these days, but we'd be silly to exclude. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside #3 MY BOY COLTON, as this one has progressed nicely, and should be sitting on another good one.  OFF TURF: 7-2-8-10-13(MTO)


Belmont            ( Current ): 37-147   ( $326.20 )  Beatable Favorites    2-15( 13.4% ) Favorites  Win %:   43-147   ( 29.3% )( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-50        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-48     ( 54.7% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout