SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 10/9


Another BIG day for us here yesterday, as we had the following...

-An $11,849 Rolling Pick Five

-A $5,274 Rolling Pick Four

-Three Rolling Pick Three's of $1,285, $1,615 & $157

-Three Rolling Doubles of $421, $112 & $74, AND an Ice Cold One of $75

-Two Exacta Boxes of $172 & $11

-Three winners of $4, $6 & $18 ( as we are guaranteed a flat bet profit 'til Sunday )

-AND 3 for 4 in the "Beatable Favorite" department.


Special thanks to an appreciative reader, David N., for paying it forward with an $80 donation to St. Jude.

Let's keep it going !


Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the G1's from Keenelend, merely go back one page.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #12 Vagaries

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/9


Race  1

1.Strong Point

2.Bonana Fanna Foe

3.Malibu Anthem

#5 STRONG POINT hasn't been in action since flopping at the end of July, but the lone dirt attempt over a glib surface yielded an adjusted speed figure of 69.7 ( versus substantially tougher ), and now finds herself at her lowest level to date. Normally we'd be happy to see Rosario climb aboard, but he's looked much worse locally at this stand than in his nationwide stakes tour, so while we'll be using, it's with a lot of trepidation. #8 BONANA FANNA FOE draws the outside for the first time, and makes her 3rd start off the bench this afternoon. #6 MALIBU ANTHEM put forth an excellent effort in his sole 2X to 1X engagement, but is beginning to give the appearance of being that kind of a horse, so we'll keep beneath. 


Race  2

1.Gun Boat

2.Pegs A. K. Girl

3.Sweet Surprise

#6 GUN BOAT showed decent speed in the Saratoga bow, but faded late in the game in finishing 5th that day. Shug charge is bred to do much better things, and Looie takes over here. Slight edge. #4 PEGS A. K. GIRL outran her 22-1 offering when completing the triple in the Monmouth debut 20 days back, and could be a bit dangerous if able to shake clear of our top choice early on. #10 SWEET SURPRISE showed ( Beyer ) improvement from her first start to the followup, and did such despite a slight hike in class & starting out five posts wider. Place horse from the most recent got the job done next time out, and decent bug gets the assignment.  OFF TURF: 9-2-6-10-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 VAGARIES doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 3-1 ? 


Race  3


2.Top Gun Tommy

3.Mr. Briggs

We have three sets of decent DRF Formulator statistics here, so let's get right to 'em.  #2 GIOCARE: 23% Pletcher nearly triples that rate ( 4 for 6 ) with locally based allowance dirt stock of breaks of 40-50 days ( 8-1 or less ), and there's a positive return on investment in that regards. #4 TOP GUN TOMMY ( who has hit the board in seven straight -- including a solid placing in his lone try right here ) will be led over by a shotcaller who's a delovely 5 of 7 with those of this ilk cutting back off breaks of less than three fortnights ( 4-1 or beneath ), with mutuels of $3 x 2, $5 & $9. #6 MR. BRIGGS has the ability to send or rate a bit, and Rice ( who's win percentage has dropped a LOT in the last 18 months ) is 5:3-0-2 with dirt stock who snagged the sheepskin 13-57 days back at 13-1 or beneath. 


Race  4 


2.Sky and Sand


#4 CHANCEAUX is a late foal beginning his working life in this spot, but totes along a 414 Tommy for today's distance of ground, and has a couple'a decent morning moves on the docket. From a tight survey, The Toddster has a three fer four mark with those fitting ALL this exact criteria ( any jock ), and owns a pos. ROI in that area. #3 SKY AND SAND is another starting things out today, and $7,500 bred animal went for 50 times that amount in Florida eight months back, so is obviously well meant. Logical contender. The As-Man has a 4 for 7 ledger with Belmont firsters on the sand at this level who are NOT receiving Lasix ( 9-1 or undah ), and the payouts were $13, $7 & $3 x 2. #1 PICCADILLY can land a share, but you also may want to tab this one for the turf later on. 


Race  5

1.Good Effort ( Ire )

2.Baby Yoda

3.Firenze Fire

Today's first stakes of the race is named after Walter Vosbugh -- official handicapper for the Jockey Club a long time ago -- and for a bit of history, please go to this link . As for the race itself, we're gonna go with the "Short field/Big Price" theory in using #2 GOOD EFFORT (IRE). European shipper has been on the dirt but four times in his 19 race career, but THREE of them came immediately before or after a layoff line, so if you're willing to forgive those events, what you're left with is a nicely clear Grade 3 placing carrying six pounds more, while earning a career best 117 Timeform rating in the process. This race has some who don't necessarily need the lead, and if the other jocks are scoping each other out early on, who's to say this one can't scoot away early on? Hmmmm..... #3 BABY YODA has improved with each passing start, and comes in off of a sensational score on closing weekend in Saratoga. Sky's the limit. #4 FIRENZE FIRE is 11:7-2-0 in Elmont, and what the hell's wrong with that? 


Race  6 

1.Poppy Flower 

2.The Club

3.Chi Town Lady

#1 POPPY FLOWER has been ITM in every start thus far, and that includes a decent effort in what would be the equivalent of a Grade Three down in Kentucky about a month back. From the most miniscule of samplings, W.W. has won with both of his BEL based graded turf sprinters who were 1-2-3 < 54 days in the rear that are running without the wonder drug ( $7 & $3 ). Flores done very well with limited starters for this clan. #2 THE CLUB gutsily held on by a noggin' to break her maiden up north on 8/26, and four returnees from that deal rang up a cumulative 4:1-1-1 mark in their followup ( 3 ) jammies, improving by 3.5 pts. per. #8 CHI TOWN LADY has done nothing wrong to date, and while we'll incorporate, will slide underneath because of the frigid pilot.  OFF TURF: 1-3-2-9-7  NOTE: AS OF 1:28. DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 7 & 12 WILL BE OUR SECOND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Race  7


2.Serve the King ( GB )

3.Japan ( GB )

Featured race of the day is upon us, and we see no need to go any deeper than this troika.  #3 GUFO has yet to finish out of the money, is two of two at the dist. ( with one of those tallies coming in his lone start at 12 panels ), and found the line first in his lone start on the Widener. Hat trick well within reach for the deserving chalk. #1 SERVE THE KING (GB) is another steady sort, and although he has no graded victories to his credit, this uncoupled entrymate to the above comes in off a nice win in the John's Call, and can grab a piece. #7 JAPAN (GB) had some traffic trouble in the North American bow in the Sword Dancer, and a win is well within reach -- with a tidier sojourn.  OFF TURF 1-2-6-4-2


Race  8 

1.Uncle George

2.Sheriff Bianco


#9 UNCLE GEORGE hasn't faced the starter in nearly the full length of a calendar, but returns sans tes-tee-klees, and C-Squared knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers. Obvious threat if able to get back to some of those adjusted figaros from yesteryear. Timid choice in a heat that's hard to hug. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures of #8 SHERIFF BIANCO, as this one is getting better and better as he goes along. Ward doesn't utilize the services of Carmouche all that often, but when he does, he's best in sprints, as the 4:3-1-0 mark belies ( $12 & $5 x 2 ). #10 BROCKMONINOFF has shown some early zip in both start off the elongated absence, and while there's a lot of wood to chop in order to get back to this one's last turf try, he could be a factor if able to do such.  OFF TURF: 11-3-1-7-2


Race  9 


2.Parade Field

3.Can't Pass It Up 

#2 VILLAINOUS has been a popular item at the claim box of late, having left her barn after four of her last five starts when made available for purchase, and as this one has done his best work at today's trip ( 4 of 10, compared to 0-9 otherwise ), we're thinking he has a shot being dropped 20% off the August purchase -- especially with the uncharacteristic snappy breeze last Thursday. #3 PARADE FIELD has been a part of the action in 5 of 6 with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his tooshie, and gets in light today, which is of some importance, as he's 3:1-0-1 when toting 117 or less ( 3 for 33 otherwise ). #5 CAN'T PASS IT UP may perk up with the blinker removal.   NOTE: AS OF 1:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  10


2.Voodoo Zip

3.Artemus Citylimits

#7 DURESS was somewhat disappointing in the most recent, but if you can see your way clear of that ( along with the disaster in the start prior ), then what you have is a gamely showing three starts back. We like to go that far back in an effort to find something positive ( at a price ), and as this one is 10-1 M.L., we'll take a nibble in a race with no first draft eliminations. #3 VOODOO ZIP has been in the money in all of his eleven starts, and that includes a victory the only time he went from two turns to one. Colt still has a bit to go before he puts the connections in the black for their overall investment thus far, but appears to be on his way. #9 ARTEMUS CITYLIMITS is a bit of a bounder, as this one goes over his 10th different strip in 11 calls to the post, but 4YO usually gives a good account of himself, no matter the locale, or surface.   OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-8


Race  11


2.Sandro the Great

3.Shutters ( AE )

#6 TACKLE returned off a 20 month hibernation to put forth an ugly performance in Toga town, but likely needed that one, and as Maker was handed this one just prior, he pretty much has carte' blanche to give him the biggest drop in the game -- which is what he does. Related to that, MM is 3 for 9 when doing it to his 2nd off the layoff turf stayers who missed the baccala less than 66 days back. #12 SANDRO THE GREAT immolated baccala when finishing out of the money in an off the turf event, but owns a decent body of turf work otherwise, and would be no surprise. #15 SHUTTERS (AE) needs a lot of luck to make it into the gate today, but should that occur, would be dropping a bunch while having eye cups affixed.  OFF TURF: 12-3-4-10-8  NOTE: AS OF 1:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont            ( Current ): 35-136   ( $306.10 )  Beatable Favorites    2-14( 14.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   39-136   ( 28.7% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 9-47        ( $68.50 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    26-47     ( 55.3% )

Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout