SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 10/8
  
  

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Big day for us here yesterday, as we got home a handful, padding our flat bet profit until at least Saturday. We are riding a 13 for 30 run into today.

We had...

-Five winners of $16, $5, $4, $3 & $6

-An Ice Cold Double of $45, and three Rolling Doubles of $94, $73 & $49

-Two Ice Cold Exactas of $161 & $19

-An Ice Cold $21 Triple

-And another successful Beatable Favorite -- bringing us to 1 for 10 on the stand 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #1 Sweet as Pie  Race 5 - #10 Saratoga Chrome  Race 7 - #2 Funwhileitlasted  Race 9 - #5 Russiarussiarussia


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 10/8

 

Race  1

1.She's the One

2.Holiday Jazz

3.Cali Fitz

#2 SHE'S THE ONE put forth a solid placing when beginning his working life back in May, but was beset by two breaks in the action on the worktab since then, so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a gander pre race. Gal may have outran her pedigree a bit that day, but we'll give her the most tepid of nods in a wide open opener. #6 HOLIDAY JAZZ is a January foal facing a bevy of younger competitors, is extremely well bred for this sorta deal, went for 10X the stud fee at auction, and has a 2nd best of 39 gate move on the docket -- which always merits inclusion. #1 CALI FITZ has beaten just two home in in as many starts to date ( to go along with as many layoff lines ), but six returnees from the 7/2 deal, returned in five different affairs to go 6:4-0-0-1 in their followup engagements, with five of 'em improving in the BSF dept.  OFF TURF: 6-4-3-1-2

 

Race  2

1.Winning Drive

2.The Great Dansky

3.Shamrocked

#1 WINNING DRIVE outran his odds when closing out the triple vs. tougher at 16-1, and historically this one has done fantastically in second off the layoff attempts, as his three for four mark in that regards belies. Toss in a 2-4 record with Kendrick, and a 7:3-1-2 ledger when beginning from the innermost three slots, and we have the makings of a solid selection. #4 THE GREAT DANSKY has hit the board in three of four & owns a nice boxscore at today's distance of ground as well. Sensible "unders' candidate. #8 SHAMROCKED has been quite the popular item at the claim box, having changed addresses after her last quartet and six of her last seven as well, and why not, as this one is a check earning fool. Should be right there once again. 

 

Race  3

1.Sanctuary City

2.Analyze It

3.Dreams of Tomorrow 

#3 SACNTUARY CITY has done great things for Owners/Breeders Messina & Butler ( as well as Jimmy Ferraro ), as this one has by far outperformed his $5,000 stud fee, earning more than a quarter mil to date. Four year old is reunited with his favorite pilot this afternoon, as he and Carmouche are 4 for 7 as a team, and 0-6 with other pilots. Recognize that this one got his Polaroid taken in his only start on the Widener outside of stakes company. #2 ANALYZE IT is the clear class of this field, and is curiously made available for available for purchase for the first time by Brown. Six year old still has all his parts, and owns a win & a runner up finish from as many starts on this course. #4 DREAMS OF TOMORROW went from zero to hero in his sole start here & must be left in the mix.  )FF TURF: 5(MTO)-3-4-2-1

 

Race  4 

1.Continentalcongres

2.Mischievous Diane

3.Everyoneloveslinda

#8 CONTINENTALCONGRES comes in today off a career best effort, and although the lone dirt try ( a third place finish ) came back a bit on the lowish side, we like to give a runner two shots under a particular set of conditions, and this Jan. foal is extremely well bred for today's distance of ground. Gal ain't facing much, and of course, we like the draw. #6 MISCHIEVOUS DIANE has been conducting her morning affairs in an admirable fashion for today's overture, and needn't be much to make an impression here. #2 EVERYONELOVESLINDA was a dead game and daylight clear runner up in this race back in August, and gets a trainer upgrade after that placing; logical.  BEATAVLE FAVORITE: #1 SWEET AS PIE doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism ? 

 

Race  5

1.N Y Fancy

2.Solib

3.Samhradh

#1 N Y FANCY got smacked around pretty good first time out, and as if that wasn't enough, filly went six wide as well. We like that there's no scary drop here, and sometimes there can be money made with failing/fading dirt sprinters going long on the lawn second time out, and blinkers are now a part of the makeup. This one is a half to a pair that did some good work on the gramma, and Castellano has had a bit of a resurgence this meet. #2 SOLIB showed some improved speed when switching surfaces, and while we'll be using, 5-1 is hard to swallow. Try to demand more value. #5 SAMRADH has displayed zippo on the worktab in preparation for today's initial afternoon trek to the frontside, but is facing no worldbeaters & can land a share.  OFF TURF: 9-5-4-10-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 SARATOGA CHROME

 

Race  6 

1.Regal Quality

2.Mr. Shortandsimple

3.Paul the Waiter

#3 REGAL QUALITY is on an 8:1-4-2 run when entered for $12,500 or less ( on a fast track ), is a groovy three of six at today's dx. ( 1-36 @ other trips ), and it's encouraging to see Irad stick around. Meeeeekest of selections in a race with no first draft eliminations. #4 MR. SHORTANDSIMPLE has been positively grotesque over his last triad, but was a half length shy of a two for two mark just prior to that, and it's difficult to argue with the 4:2-2-0 record at this trip. #7 PAUL THE WAITER is doubled up in price after scoring at The Shore, and as the trainer from that day is suspended ( shocker ), gelding has since been transferred over to his "assistant". Jock has been lousy on the year, so we'll leave beneath. 

 

Race  7

1.Woodbine Way

2.Fraudulent Charge

3.Take It Off

This is another race we're really not digging, so be careful.  #10 WOODBINE WAY hasn't been seen since last August, but won her only turf start off the bench, and has displayed oodles of speed in the past. Well travelled gal starts at her 8th different venue in her 9th call to the post, and should give you a thrill for your $2 bill. #11 FRAUDULENT CHARGE is another coming in off a sabbatical, but closed out the exacta in her lone "true" start off a L/O ( without Lasix ), and has yet to miss an exacta. #5 TAKE IT OFF has hit the board in four straight ( outrunning her odds in each ), and the 339 turf Tommy tells us that she deserves another shot over the stuff.  OFF TURF: 11-10-1-9-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 FUNWHILEITLASTED will be led over by a conditioner who's 0-11 in all applicable categories, so we'll leave out.  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Copper Chalice

2.Empereor's Cause

3.Troubleshooter

#9 COPPER CHALICE blew up the Totilazator board when winning at first asking to the tune of $151, but disappeared for more than 2/3rd's of the calendar four months afterwards, but has been working well for the comebacker, and the adjusted 75.9 Beyer # from the score would fit well with these. #1 EMPEROR'S CAUSE faces state breds for the first time today and secures Saez in the stirrups. #3 TROUBLESHOOTER is one of three off the pine, & the pre-layoff jock comes back, which is something we like seeing. 

 

Race  9 

1.Tara Dancer

2.Let Ur Light Shine

3.Classic Lynne

#1 TARA DANCER gets her working papers today, and does such being a full to a present day runner who's hit the board in two of three turf starts ( with the lone blemish being an extremely troubled venture ), with the debut yielding an adjusted figrao of 64.4, which ain't half bad. Would like to see this one be within striking distance early on, as Franco's forte' isn't with "deep rail closers on the grass". #4 LET UR LIGHT SHINE is another firster w/ fair pedigree for today's surface who would be no surprise. #6 CLASSIC LYNNE got bumped not once, not twice, but THRICE in the lone turf try ( 64.9 adj. ), and after disappointing on the sand, switches back over to the blades ( while having blinks added ) this afternoon.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 RUSSIARUSSIARUSSIA may prove to be a hoax here at 3-1, given the poor 262 turf Tomlinson figure for the stuff.   NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont            ( Current ): 32-127   ( $278.60 )  Beatable Favorites    1-10  ( 10% ) Favorites   Win %:   36-127   ( 28.4% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 8-46        ( $61.70 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    25-46     ( 54.4% )


Saratoga             ( Final ): 81-417   ( $578.30 )   Beatable Favorites    7-19 ( 36.8% ) Favorites Win %:     166-417 ( 39.8% )  

Belmont               ( Final ):  67-444   ( $534.40 )    Beatable Favorites    7-27  ( 25.9% ) Favorites   Win %:    171-444 ( 38.5% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3004-15504 ($26,050.90)  Beatable Favorites : 378-1380( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5862-15586 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3089-16072 ($26,870.10)   Beatable Favorites : 393-1447( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 6025-16173 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


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