SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/2 - Santa Anita - Grade 1's Rodeo Drive & Awesome Again
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Belmont, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None 


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Graded Stakes - 10/2 - Santa Anita - Grade 1's Rodeo Drive & Awesome Again

 

Race 9 

1.Going to Vegas

2.Luck

3.Magic Attitude ( GB )

#4 GOING TO VEGAS has proven to be a fantastic claim by Baltas, as after being snagged for half'a C-Note last June, runner has gone 11:3-4-1-1 since, which includes two graded stakes scores. Filly has done excellent work right here ( 11:4-3-0 ), and from a DRF Formulator standpoint, aforementioned shotcaller is three fer six with graded turf stayers who won less than 56 days back ( 12-1 or < ) & are running without Lasix ( $6 & $5 x 2 ). #8 LUCK ( uncoupled barnmate w/the above ) overcame some trouble when coming from the back of the pack to best optional foes in her North American debut, and the pedigree says this one has ample room for improvement. #7 MAGIC ATTITUDE (GB) has some decent back class & can land a share.  OFF TURF: 1-4-5-9-2

 

      Race 10

1.Tizamagician

2.Medina Spirit

3.Idol

#1 TIZAMAGICIAN comes in today off of back to back career best numeros, can send or rate just a touch, digs the view of these mountains, won his sole dirt route when loading first, and is backed by an excellent trainer stat as well. Over the last 1,826 days, Mandella is a poyfect 4 fer 4 with dirt stayers ridden by Prat who crashed the fiesta 36-47 days back, and are NOT receiving the miracle drug ( $10, $4, $8 & $3 ). #5 MEDINA SPIRIT ( whose Kentucky Derby win is STILL under investigation for the trainer having cheated ) was scratched out of the Pennsylvania Derby, when Lidocaine Bob drew the 9 hole & turned tail. Aside from all that, this one has never been off the board, and we'll chunk in. #8 IDOL is another who's yet to have gone unplaced, and who are we to rock that boat. 

  

Belmont            ( Current ): 19-97     ( $178.50 )  Beatable Favorites    1-7  ( 14.3% ) Favorites   Win %:   25-97     ( 25.4% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 7-43        ( $57.70 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    22-43     ( 50.8% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017