SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/1 - Santa Anita - American Pharoah
  
  

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Nice day for us here on Thursday, as we had two winners of $11 & $39, alomng with a $22 cold Exacta,a  $125 Cold Double, and a $1,024 Rollimng Pick Three, as we're on a 9 for 25 run of late.

Just a reminder that for today's complete Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 10/1 - Santa Anita - American Pharoah

 

 Race 8

1.Finneus

2.Corniche

3.Flying Drummer

#3 FINNEUS has improved with each passing start, and we like that it's been accomplished at increasing distances, while facing stiffer competition w/each passing start. This one has gotten smacked around at the onset in two of his last three trips to the frontside, and went extremely wide in the other. Jock has done some nice things for us at big prices in the past, and we feel there's some decent value here with a prohibitive favorite signed on. #1 CORNICHE made the most of a good post, and went coast to coast like butter and toast first time out, and while logical right back, we've seen too many poor rides by Smith on heavy favorites to dive right in at what will likely be odds on -- especially going two turns for the first time. #2 FLYING DRUMMER ( another faction of the three headed Lidocaine Bob monster ) immolated some baccala st odds on a month+ ago, but Gun Runners have been doing well of late, and we'll chunk in for the second 2X try.

Belmont            ( Current ): 18-88     ( $173.90 )  Beatable Favorites    1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorites   Win %:   22-88     ( 25% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 7-42        ( $57.70 )   Beatable Favorites    1-3  ( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:    21-42     ( 50% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017