SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 4/17 - Apple Blossom & Oaklawn Handicap
  
  

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We come into today's selected Graded Stakes analysis on a 26-168 streak ( $336 Bet - $347.40 Returned ) over the last 2 1/2 years ( 9/15/18 ).

Just a remider that for today's complete Aqueduct selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 4/17 - Apple Blossom & Oaklawn Handicap

 

Race 9 

1.Express Train

2.Warrior's Charge

3.Silver State

#2 EXPRESS TRAIN has really blossomed over his last quintet of dirt attempts ( 73-89-93-103-102 ), with the lattermost being a lively runner up in the Big Cap. Colt has fired of a couple'a crisp works since and makes all kinds of sense once again. #4 WARRIOR'S CHARGE has positively immolated money in his last triad, and while we'll be incorporating, it'll be in the unders until we see otherwise. #1 SILVER STATE tries to get one for the thumb today, and it's well within reach, given this one's fondness for the strip ( 3-3 ). 

 

      Race 11 

1.Letruska

2.Getridofwhatailesyou

3.Swiss Skydiver

#3 LETRUSKA ( a Kentucky bred who went undefeated in six starts south of the border before coming to the States at the end of 2019 ) has put together a nice body of work, and comes in today off a tough loss in the Azeri five weeks ago. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the recent skein of two turn events ( 84-95-97-99 ), so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, 13% shotcaller has a 17:5-2-1-1 mark w/ dirt stayers who crashed the fiesta 20-50 days back ( 11-1 or less ) and the payoffs were $12, $3 x 2, $22 & $4 ). Viable alternative to the favorites, and can definitely envision a scenario where Irad walks the dog for the opening quarter/half as the "Big Two" stare at each other. #5 GETRIDOFWHATAILESYOU is another who has displayed steady improvement going long ( five straight ), and found the line first in her sole "3rd off the L/O" engagement. You have to love the way #2 SWISS SKYDIVER doesn't need to take her track with her, as she's started at eight different venues coming into today's 14th outing, but as she's lost her last troika after score, we'll tuck beneath. 

 

Aqueduct          ( Current ):  15-77       ( $94.30 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )    Favorites   Win  %:   42-77     ( 54.6% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-14         ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-14      ( 35.7% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017