SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 4/18 - Closing Day
  
  

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--Just one winner on the Aqueduct card yesterday, but it came back 24 clams, and topped a $294 ice cold triple and a $54 ice cold exacta as well.

--Went one for two in our select Graded Stakes analysis yesterday, putting our 2 1/2+ year streak at 27 for 170 ( $340 Bet -- $356.20 Returned, since 9/15/18 ). 

--If just two favorites come in today, it will secure a 50%+ winning favorite rate for the meet --- something we've never see in any meet in our 7+ years here.

--We have already secured another successful "Beatable Favorites" meet, as we were unblemished on the stand. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 4/18 - Closing Day

 

Race  1

1.Big Georges Kingdm

2.My Brother Neil

3.Shinjuku

#5 BIG GEORGES KINGDM has shown improvement with each passing start, and as the Finger Lakes schedule is a a bit shaky, A. Ferraro sees fit to ship this one eastward. We'll bite at 4-1. #3 MY BROTHER NEIL has yet to finish out of the money, and although there's a bit of a respite to overcome, we'll chunk in because of the gameness shown. #4 SHINJUKU gets a blinker addition off a career best effort, and is eligible for another goodie in today's 3rd off the L/O engagement.  OFF TURF: 4-1-6-2-3

 

Race  2

1.Dancingwthdaffodls

2.Screamin' By

3.Silky Blue

#6 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS outran her odds a touch when showing versus similar type in the comebacker, and as this one has historically been substantially better on the green than the brown, we'll afford her a chance at double digit odds. #7 SCREAMIN' BY found the line first in her sole start off a break in the action, and as this one has gone 52-57-70-71 in her quartet of sod starts, who's to say where her ceiling is in that regards. #5 SILKY BLUE is another who's been successful off the bench and has a 4:2-1-0-1 mark with Manny in the irons.  OFF TURF: 1-3-4(MTO)-6-2

 

Race  3

1.Sudden Impulse

2.Tourrista 

3.Bustinmygroove

#1 SUDDEN IMPULSE is extremely light from a speed figure perspective, but we always give a runner two shots under a particular set of circumstances before assessing their true capabilities, and as this one has gone over a fast track but once, we'll say there's still a chance of improvement with that 368 Tomlinson figure shown. Price play. #7 TOURRIISTA is confidently shipped in and hiked up in class by Chapman, and totes the lightest impost of her career. #9 BUSTINMYGROOVE tossed in a rare clunker in the most recent, but perhaps that can be attributed to the slop. Chance to make amends. 

 

Race  4 

1.Micromillion

2.Wicked Amber 

3.Jen's Battle 

#5 MICROMILLION is one for two when going turf to dirt and owns a nice 4:1-1-1 ledger at the trip. Gal has never been much of a dirt horse ( 0 fer 9 ), so there may be some hidden value with today's surface transition. #6 WICKED AMBER overcame sone trouble to close out the tri at 50-1 a half'a month back, and gets a jockey upgrade off that effort. You don't see many Persaud turfers at less than 2-1 ( just once with his last 131 grass runners ), so while we'll be using, it's with a case of the jitters. #3 JEN'S BATTLE is one of three off a respite and loses the eye cups. BIG kudos to Falcone for aiding in the rescue of 58 horses the other day.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:55 A.M., DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-5-7.

 

Race  5

1.Valmont

2.Qian B C 

3.Sanctuary City

#6 VALMONT hasn't been in action since mid December, but is one of three off a layoff when going over firm ground, and digs this trip. Meeeeeeekest of choices in a race with no first draft eliminations. #7 QIAN B C is a bit of a nibblah by nature, has hit the board in two of three with Junior at the reins, and comes in without a hood for the first time in quite some time. #3 SANCTUARY CITY has a nice overall body of work, and that includes a win & a third place finish when returning off a break in the action.  OFF TURF 2-8-1-9-7

 

Race  6 

1.Love and Love

2.Altaf

3.Dial Me Up 

#1 LOVE AND LOVE ( who should be no worse than second for all you show punters out there ) drops in class a bit after finishing a gamely & daylight clear runner up in a state bred stakes right here on the 7th of March. Difficult to argue with the ten exacta finishes from twice as many trips to the track, as well as the 10:3-4-0 boxscore at today's oval and distance of ground. Recognize that the lone start when first to load resulted in a tally. #5 ALTAF overcame a boatload of trouble when going from zero to hero to pick up the diploma down in Louisville 11 months back, and is an obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up. #3 DIAL ME UP got her Polaroid taken in her only "3rd off the L/O" jammie, and has done quite well at The Big A to boot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Laobanandaprayer

2.Shaker Shack

3.Bustin Bay 

#1 LAOBANANDAPRAYER down the lane. #5 SHAKER SHACK has done some fine work since being transferred over to Pat Reynolds' barn ( 3:1-2-0 ), and that's really no shocker, as progeny of Bustin Stones do extremely well in Ozone Park. We like when a trainer isn't "ascared" to make an equipment or a medication change off a lifetime best fig, and this one has the blinks put on for the first time. Note the runner up from the most recent returned a victress when last in action. #3 BUSTIN BAY won by the length of Jamaica Bay against maiden platers on March 26th, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all her efforts. Logical once again. 

 

Race  8 

1.Sleek Lynx ( GB )

2.Bubbles on Ice ( Ire ) 

3.Oyster Box

#4 SLEEK LYNX (GB) is a bit of an in and outer, but the bloodlines tell us that this one is ripe for some improvement off the Hallandale Beach comebacker in today's second attempt at two turns -- especially if the track comes up firm. #4 BUBBLES ON ICE (IRE) did some nice work overseas ( lost by less than five at 80-1 in a Group One against the lads & fell short by less than four in a G1 versus the gals at 50-1 ) & rates a shot in her 1st start for C-Squared. #5 OYSTER BOX completes the Newcastle/Guinness/Budweiser triple based on the 20%+ improvemnent displayed from her first turf route to her 2nd ( a showing in an Oldsmar graded event ).  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6(MTO)-3

 

Race  9 

1.Inveterate

2.Appreciate

3.Towering Gaze 

#1 INVETERATE has beaten just five home in her last six sojourns to the frontside, but one of her two outings over firm ground yielded an adj. # of 87.1 ( the other was a flop that came directly befor a layoff ); miss is 1 for 3 when breaking from the pine, and we don't think this one necessarily needs to send, but maybe sit a nice pocket trip. #8 APPRECIATE has always been a bit of a minor player ( 35:1-7-6 ), but her best work has come at today's dx. ( 6:1-2-1 ) and Trevor sees fit to ride. #4 TOWERING GAZE closes out our race, day, week & meet. Thank you all so very much for your loyalty here, and we look forward to seeing you ( hopefully ) at beautiful Belmont Park !!  OFF TURF: 2-1-12-4-6

  
Aqueduct          ( Current ):  16-86       ( $118.70 )  Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )    Favorites   Win  %:   46-86     ( 53.5% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


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