SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 4/17
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's complete coverage of the Grade One Apple Blossom & Grade Two Oaklawn Handicap, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 4/17

 

Race  1

1.Excess Capacity

2.Whyisshesolucky

3.Violent Trick

#1 EXCESS CAPACITY gave up the ghost after a half in the Sis City, but is back down to a palatable level in today's opener ( just a few pegs above the tally two back ), and historically has done well at this trip & over this strip. There's a decent DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Rice ( who is STILL awaiting a NYS Gaming Commission decision on alleged improper acts ) is 4-10 with second off the claim, mid level dirt dashers who missed the baccala less than three fortnights back. Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #3 WHYISSHESOLUCKY overcame some trouble to outrun her odds in finishing 3rd on Claiming Stakes Day, and 8% Maymo more than triples that rate ( 2-7 ) with Aqueduct dirt stock at this level who crashed the fiesta < six weeks ago. #4 VIOLENT TRICK is 4 of 11 at this dx., compared to being just 1 of 8 otherwise, and that's enough reason to include.  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Bricco 

2.Vodka Lemonade

3.Bourbon Brown

#8 BRICCO has lost by just an average of three lengths in both starts off the bench ( posting decently adjusted numeros ), and ( from a small survey ) Bond is 3:2-1-0 with mdclm. turf stayers in the 78-188 day bracket ( $5 & $8 ). Mild choice. #9 VODKA LEMONADE has closed out the exacta in two of three turf starts to date, and Maker is two for four when stretching out his turfers who were ITM 55-57 days back ( $8 x 2 ). #6 BOURBON BROWN put forth a lively showing when trying the gramma for the first time down in Oldsmar, and we like the speed shown that day.  OFF TURF: 12(AE)-2-1-4-5

 

Race  3

1.Swashbuckle

2.Dr. Blute

3.Dancing Buck

#2 SWASHBUCKLE was given some time to sort things out over the winter, but won his sole try over firm ground, and returns with the wonder drug. That last part is of some relevance, as C-Squared has a 10:3-1-2-2 ledger when giving his 2nd time routers Lasix off absences of 69-173 days ( on the turf ). The mutuels were $10, $5 & $6, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #1 DR. BLUTE was a convincing victor ( "Roger, Roger...what's our vector, Victor ?" ) right outta the box at the end of February, and not only does the pedigree tell us the result was not an aberration, but that this one can be as equally good ( if not a touch better ) going over the blades. #9 DANCING BUCK was a snappy runner up behind a next out winner in his only go round on the grass, and is another getting the big "L" in this spot.  OFF TURF: 2-8-1-9-7  NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Skyler's Scramjet

2.Mine the Coin

3.Honorable Service

#4 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET has been up the track in his last duet, but we always endeavor to go back three races to find something positive, and the February 27th win, was in fact, a sharp one. Horse for the course ( 17:5-3-0 ), and Avila is 2 for 6 with Aqueduct based dirt stock who missed the money off of this kind of break ( 76-1 or less ), with the winners paying $10 & $7. There's a sub category of 1-1 in the lower claiming ranks, and note that Morales was aboard for the aforementioned score. #6 MINE THE COIN has done nice work over this oval and finds himself at his lowest level to date. #5 HONORABLE SERVICE has gotten the job done four of five times when put in for 8K or less.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-7-1.

 

Race  5

1.Barleewon

2.Mo Faith

3.Straw into Gold

#4 BARLEEWON bested slightly weaker down in the Bayou 37 days in the rear, and although adding an appreciable amount of weight today ( eight pounds ), we dig the two fer three record at a mile, and like this one's ability to rate or send if need be. #2 MO FAITH got up in time to procure the sheepskin at first asking down in Hallandale beach, and the 363 turf Tomlinson says to us that the score was quite legitimate. Three returnees from that heat have amassed a cumulative 3:2-1-0 mark in their followup deals ( from two separate races ), with a negligible Beyer change of +.67 points. MUST include. #9 STRAW INTO GOLD hasn't been seen since the gallant maiden breaker around Turkey Time, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 6-9-1-5-8

 

Race  6 

1.Millean

2.My First Grammy

3.Giant Shoes

#1 MILLEAN was on and off the Derby trail in a tick less than a minute and fifty seconds, and after the beatdown in Tampa, he had his procreating abilities removed, and is ( yikes ) promptly spotted for a quarter. The "good' news is that this one's lone spin over a fast track yielded a tally, and The Toddster is a fat 8 of 14 w/male sand sprinters at this level off hibernations of 52-86 days ( positive ROI ). #6 MY FIRST GRAMMY has shown improvement over his last quintet ( four exacta finishes in there ), and is about 10.2% better over a glib surface than a moist one; expecting another goodie. #5 GIANT SHOES is second off the L/O for today's drop. 

 

Race  7

1.Devious Mo

2.Sinful Dancer

3.It's Gravy

#1 DEVIOUS MO burst through the maiden ranks in a big way a tad over a month back , and in doing such, elevated his best fast track BSF by 25 points. While a bounce is always possible, we're soothed by the DRF Formulator stat which has Rudy Rod at a tight 5:3-0-1 with dirt runners who got their first win 20-50 days back, & are 76-1 or beneath ( 2-2 in Queens ). #4 SINFUL DANCER is ( as a maiden ) confidently spotted in a stakes after posting an 83 Beyer first out, and makes all kinds of sense. #3 IT'S GRAVY has yet to miss a triple and who are we to rock that boat. 

 

Race  8 

1.Original

2.It's a Gamble

3.Hard Love

#5 ORIGINAL was an honest third at 13-1 in the Kitten's Joy at G.P. at 1/30, giving this one a 3:1-0-1 boxscore on the lawn. Terranova ( who has been very good to us with the trainer angles ) has scored with half of his dozen turf routers in the 68-104 day area code @ 36-1 or undah, and just look at these prices -- $58, $28, $27, $8, $6 & $3. #2 IT'S A GAMBLE is two for five on the sod, but they were both going 1X; mixed signals. #1 HARD LOVE showed appreciable improvement from the first start to the next, and did such despite having jumped into the deep end of the pool. Javy gets the assignment, but he's just 2 for his last 33 when riding for Thomas.  OFF TURF: 2-3-1-4-5

 

Race  9 

1.Call Me Carmelita ( AE )

2.Nebo ( AE )

3.Esotica

#13 CALL ME CARMELITA (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to fruition, will be led over by a 16% Terranova ( yes, him again ) who's 5-20 ( 25% ) with NYRA based firsters on the green stuff going a mile or less ( < 52-1 ). The returns for that study were an amazing $7, $103, $42, $50 & $53. Wow. #15 NEBO (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but is decently bred for this trip, and shedrow is two fer five with first time turfers going short who missed the board 15-57 days in the rear ( 29-1 or below ), with mutuels of $35 & $22. #4 ESOTICA is back in with maiden platers today, and has a 5:3-0-2 Formulator stat behind her, as Maker is just that when putting his maiden claiming sprinters on the turf for the first time at 24-1 or beneath ( < 55 days ); winners came back $6 x 2 & $9.  OFF TURF 10-3-7-2-6  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Aqueduct          ( Current ):  15-77       ( $94.30 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )    Favorites   Win  %:   42-77     ( 54.6% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-14         ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-14      ( 35.7% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


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