SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 4/16
  
  

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Just one miserable winner on a miserable day, as favorites are clicking at an astounding 59.4%.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #8 Quiet Horizon  Race 6 - #9 New Year's Wish


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 4/16

 

Race  1

1.Hey Red

2.Quiet Type

3.Idaka

#11 HEY RED hasn't been seen since the disappointing bow in late January, but takes the biggest drop in the game today while having Lasix added for the initial turf attempt. Tomlinson figure for the grass is a bit on the lowish side, but daddy was 10:2-2-2 over the stuff ( 179K ), and as Giant's Causeway was that one's daddy, this one just may take to the stuff. The only time Noda had a turf runner in the 51-113 day range, he won ( $8 ), and barn owns an 18:7-2-2-1 record when naming Jose ( $4 x2, $27, $10, $18, $9 & $8 ), and there's a sub vategory of 3:2-0-1 on the verde. #2 QUIET TYPE is another one dropping today, and loses the eye cups as well; Junior took off his final mount on Sunday, so check the changes. #12 IDAKA has shown a bit of early hoof going over the blades & is as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 12-1-8-4-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 QUIET HORIZON will be led over by C-Squared, who's oh-fer-16 with female turfers starting things out at the maiden claiming level.  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, THE #1A WILL BE OUR SECONDARY SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Beta

2.Trappeze Artist

3.No Lime

#5 BETA was given a shot on the lawn for the first time last Saturday, and although the end result left a lot to be desired, it was right on par with the breeding and prior speed figures. That being said, if you were to prorate the # to his best dirt figaro, then what you get is a 62.1 which fits well here. Slight edge. #3 TRAPPEZE ARTIST got up in time to score at the level just below this one and is an obvious factor once again. #7 NO LIME has a nice 3:1-1-0 mark at the dist. and has never been last to load until today; may spice things up a bit. 

 

Race  3

1.Sinashack

2.Warfrint Fighter

3.King Slaughter

#2 SINASHACK was kept in jail after the sharp runner up finish/claim, thereby making him eligible for the $20,000 tag in this spot. 11% clan clicks to the tune of 50% ( 10:5-2-1-1 ) with dirt runners who crashed the party 44-50 days back ( $10 x 2, $7, $3 & $38 ). Viable alternative to the likely race favorite, #6 WARFRONT FIGHTER. The lattermost entrant has closed out the exacta in his last quartet, and while that's impressive for this type, it can also be a detriment, as some horses simply have a tendency to fall short; leaving beneath until he shows us otherwise. #5 KING SLAUGHTER flashed a touch of early hoof at 38-1 first time out, and could move forward a bit off that effort.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Race  4 

1.Bronx Bomber

2.Bears Mafia

3.Dark Money

#2 BRONX BOMBER ( a pure speedster ) overcame an awful onset in the most recent to rally resolutely to fall short by only a neck in this race at 9-1. You're not going to get that offering today, but at least there's a decent Formulator stat in play, as Rudy Rod is 6:3-0-1 with second off the claim, locally based optional dirt dashers who were 1-2-3 < 50 days back ( $10, $9 & $8 ). Recognize that the gelding is 4-15 in Ozone Park -- compared to having an 0-10 ledger elsewhere. #1 BEARS MAFIA returned from a "Vanned Off/Layoff" deal to win his 7th race from his last 8 trips to the track, and is an obvious factor. #3 DARK MONEY was up in time to best our primary selection in their last rendezvous, & given his proclivity for winning at this trip ( 6 of 14 ), we'd be remiss in excluding. 

 

Race  5

1.Ajnadeen

2.Malibu Pro

3.Vintage Hollywood

#1 AJNADEEN has beaten home only two in her three spread out starts since December of '18, but seven year old "horse" ( Hang in there, buddy ! ) owns a win over the strip, and at least there's no layoff this time, nor any scary drop. Will need a few  things to go his way, but we'll take a shot at a price. #3 MALIBU PRO was nicely spotted by Rudy on "Claiming Stakes Day" after being bought for 40 large at the end of January, and meet's leading rider grabs the helm; grab him by the tail to get the glory. #2 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD outran his 10-1 parimutuel offering when closing out the exacta at 10-1 vs. state breds, and although a few points shy of 'Pro, the 67% ITM rate over a glib surface gives us enough reason to chunk in. 

 

Race  6 

1.Rude Awakening

2.Flat Awesome Jenny

3.Miss Liana

#2 RUDE AWAKENING lost by a neck in her sole "3rd off the layoff" jammie, has yet to miss the superfecta in any dirt attempt, and Kerry -- 2 for 6 with Aqueduct based mid level dirt stock at 13-1 or less ( < 40 days ) with the winners paying $16 & $5 -- is still keeping this one above the price claimed from December. With only one -- maybe two -- other speed types entered, we'd like to see Morales have this one right up on the action early on. #8 FLAT AWESOME JENNY picked up a nice check in the Sis City & is 5:2-0-1 w/Trevor in the irons. #7 MISS LIANA ( who should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there ) has won three of her last five and positively adores this strip, as the 4-7 Queens boxscore shows. Will be on the choo choo from the get go.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 NEW YEAR'S WISH doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 3-1 ?

Race  7

1.Control Group

2.Bourbon Bay

3.Danny California

#4 CONTROL GROUP was extremely gutsy in grinding out a win in one of those claiming stakes on the 27th of March, and you have to dig this one's propensity for hitting the board ( 11 of 14 ). To be frank with you ( "Let me be even morrrrrrre Frank..." ), this one also excels the zip cod and the trip as well. Fella has ascended the Beyer ladder over his last quartet, and while the wheels are bound to come off at some time, we hope it isn't today. #8 BOURBON BAY has an outsider's chance of upending the apple cart here, given the freshening, blinker removal, and tes-tee-klee disappearance to boot. #2 DANNY CALIFORNIA goes from Morales to Irad, which is like first time lasix these days.  NOTE: AS OF 5:27 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-2-5.

 

Race  8 

1.Blitchton Lady

2.Madera

3.Tuff Bird

#4 BLITCHTON LADY immolated some baccala in her first start after a voided claim, but historically, this one is about 11.2% better over a fast track than a wet one, so you can feel free to upgrade that figaro a bit. From a "Trainer Stat" perspective, 16% shedrow is 3-12 with AQU runners at this level who missed the money less than 44 days back at 32-1 ( w/ today's pilot aboard ). #1 MADERA has yet to miss the triple, and who are we to rock that boat ?  #2 TUFF BIRD is a bit of an in and outer, but finds himself at his lowest level since the maiden breaker, and can make amends.  NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 9 & 8 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Aqueduct          ( Current ):  14-69       ( $91.80 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-5   ( 0% )    Favorites   Win  %:   41-69     ( 59.4% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-14         ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-14      ( 35.7% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


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