SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 4/15
  
  

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Profitable three bagger for us here on Sunday ( $12, $6 & $17 ), with the lattermost being our ( very rare ) "Play of the Meet". That race also yielded a $125 Triple box & a $47 Exacta Box as well. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #6 Runaway Rumour  NOTE: AS OF 2:39, #8 WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 4/15

 

Race  1

1.You Are Awesome

2.Rythm Section

3.The Last Zip

#2 YOU ARE AWESOME has been freshened up after the win/claim at Chuck Town a couple'a months back, and although this one appears to be purdy low from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, we like how this one came along decently at 55-1 in the lone turf try, and the pedigree tells us there's room for some improvement. Intriguing to see Jose take the call here. #1 RYTHM SECTION hasn't displayed much since returning off an elongated absence, but is third off the layoff today, and is but a neck shy of being two for two when put up for purchase. #4 THE LAST ZIP has done okay at the trip and can close things out.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5(MTO)-4

 

Race  2

1.King Angelo

2.Thunderbird Cafe

3.Noble Conquest

Despite smacking into the starting apparatus ( and checking going into the first turn ) when going over the gramma down in Hallandale Beach back in January, #9 KING ANGELO ended up a respectable 5th, with an adj. BSF of 68.1. Lone four year old has a maturity edge over the entire field, and note that Manny Man was aboard for the sharp bow. #2 THUNDERBIRD CAFE begins his working life this afternoon, and is a half to a runner who closed out the exacta ( 71.6 ) in her sole turf attempt, and not only is there Storm Cat on the dam side, but the maternal granddam was a nose short of a 2 for 3 ledger going over the blades ( 96-99-101 Beyer #'s ). #10 NOBLE CONQUEST closes out the triple.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-10-2  NOTE: AS OF 5:05 P.M. TUESDAY WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  3

1.La Kara Mia

2.Mabel Island

3.Pleasure Luck

We have three solid sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play, so let's get right to 'em.  #7 LA KARA MIA( who just won her only start here ) will be led over by a trainer who's three for six with third off the shelf dirt stock who got the diploma less than 46 days back ( $8, $4 & $3 ). #4 MABEL ISLAND owns oodles of speed and is conditioned by a fella who's 3-9 with dirt runners in the 46-50 day bracket @ 20-1 or < ( $7, $8 & $11 ). #5 PLEASURE LUCK has yet to finish off the board, and Hennig is on the Mark with his locally based allowanced dirt dashers who hit the board less than 50 days back @ 10-1 or beneath, as he's 6:2-1-2-1 with 'em ( $9 & $8 ). 

 

Race  4 

1.Mirabell Mei

2.Summer in the City

3.Killer Dress

#5 MIRABELL MEI has a decent turf record outside of stakes company, but what we're most interested in is the trainer stat involving John Terranova ( who came through for out $17 "Play of the Meet" on Sunday. Aforementioned hombre is a tight three of four with allowance turf stayers in the 81-137 day zip code ( 47-1 or undah ), with healthy mutuels of $28, $27 & $6. #1 SUMMER IN THE CITY has a nice body of work & won her only start off a respite. #7 KILLER DRESS improved from a 61 to a 74 in her secondary trip over firm going, so who quite knows where her ceiling is in that regards.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.   NOTE: AS OF 2:31, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-2-3. 

 

Race  5

1.Make Or Break

2.Love Me Tomorrow

3.Beyond Brown

These three and no more for all our rolling action...   #9 MAKE OUR BREAK took a confident ( albeit unnecessary ) hike in class after the February 27th placing/claim, and ended up finishing a fairly flat fourth ( say that three times fast ) in said event. The good news is that the 15% shedrow is 13:5-4-1-3 with 2nd off the snag mid level dirt equines off L/O's of 1-29 days at 12-1 or beneath ( $3.28 ROI ). Stock goes up if the front wraps come off. #7 LOVE ME TOMORROW is a nibblah by rote ( 19:1-6-7 ), but is definitely logical enough to include. #8 BEYOND BROWN could perk up with the trainer upgrade since last in action.  NOTE: AS OF 12:59, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-4-3.

  

Race  6 

1.Forever Changed

2.Secret Love

3.Wailin Josie

#1 FOREVER CHANGED hasn't done much to get the pulse racing over her last duet, but we like to go back three races in an effort to find something positive, and the 1/16/21 heat yielded an adjusted numero of 81.5; when it comes to his optional dirt horsies off layoffs of 46-49 days, Baker is the man -- 4:3-1-0, $26, $8 & $10. #7 SECRET LOVE is not a 2YO, and is not in a stakes, so therefore ( not shockingly ) gets Lasix administered for the 1st time in this spot. The juice can only help after the recent debacle, and there's a tremendous jockey upgrade in play here, as Irad is a sensational 22:12-2-2 on the stand. Furthermore ( and heretofore, and shut the damn door ! ), Kimmel is 3 for 6 w/3rd off the bench dirt animals who tallied a win 18-50 days back ( less than 16-1 ), with payoffs of $7, $6 & $5. #4 WAILIN JOSIE takes the obligatory hike in class after a smart score last month, and we have no qualms with including one who's hit the board in five straight. 

 

Race  7

1.Jezebel's Kitten

2.Kilkea

3.Kissing Frogs

#7 JEZEBEL'S KITTEN was an extremely lively runner up in a near identical spot down at Gulfstream on the 12th of February, and gal with some back class is backed by a snazzy 8:4-4-0 trainer statistic which has this outfit clicking to that tune with those going long on the lawn at this level that crashed the fiesta 57-67 days back ( $16, $5, $6 & $4 ). #2 KILKEA finished second in her one and only try off this kind of break, and nearly blew up the only time she loaded first. Hard to knock the 7:3-4-0 boxscore since last March. #9 KISSING FROGS ( by Cairo "Prince" -- ya get it ? ) missed the "14 month Hat Trick" by less than a length in Fla. nearly three fortnights in the past, and deserves a little extra attention on top of that, as Mott is a saucy 14:5-2-2 with female runners of this ilk off sabbaticals of 15-67 days at 13-1 or below ( positive ROI ).  OFF TURF: 10-4(MTO)-9-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 2:35, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-5-10.

 

Race  8 

1.Mondeuse ( AE )

2.Phenomenal Woman 

3.Caumsett

#14 MONDEUSE (AE) needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but "Honk if you like Donk !" with maiden special weight sod sprinters at 17-1 or less ( 68-248 days ), as he's a poyfect 4 fer 4 with 'em ( $20, $8 & 6 x 2 ). #3 PHENOMENAL WOMAN didn't show a whole heck of a lot down at G.P. in the overture, but now has the wonder drug coursing through her veins, and C-Squared brings in a three for four mark with second timers on the turf cutting back ( $6 & $7 x 2 ). #11 CAUMSETT had improved with each passing grass try before getting demolished on the dirt before being subsequently laid up; factor if sound and fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 RUNAWAY RUMOUR doesn't make our first cut.  NOTE: AS OF 11:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 2:39, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-9-4 WITH THE #8 BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

  

Aqueduct          ( Current ):  13-61       ( $89.20 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-4   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   35-61    ( 57.4% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-14         ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-14      ( 35.7% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


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