SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 4/11


Just one on yesterday's card, as favorites continue to roll at a brisk clip ( 57.7% ). 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 4/11


Race  1

1.Amendment Nineteen

2.Venus Oyzo 

3.As It Should Be

We're seeing the day's opener as easy as 1-2-3. ( Well not really, but it sounds good ! )  #1 AMENDMENT NINETEEN gets our vote here based on the smart pedigree ( 381 Tomlinson figure for the trip ), and the fact that from an itty bitty sampling, Rice has won with two of five maiden special weight fillies starting things out right here ( 3YO vs. older ), and the winners came back a healthy $20 & $15. Gal has a couple of decent sibs, and needn't be much here. #2 VENUS OYZO hung up an adjusted 65.5 in her lone "second off the L/O" try ( pretty much what she posted last time out ), and a number like that should place her in the thick of things in this truncated allotment. #3 AS IT SHOUD BE encountered a boatload of trouble first time out, so fee free to draw a line through that, and as Oaklawn runners are being enticed to run here, Chapman sees fit to take a shot. 


Race  2

1.Brush Country

2.Macho Jack

3.Skyler's Scramjet

#6 BRUSH COUNTRY was a decently beaten but well clear runner up vs. 8K foes last time out, and Bruce saw enough to hike this one up more than 50%. On that note, barn is 3:2-0-1 when doing such with his mid level dirt stock who crashed the board less than three fortnights back @ 10-1 or less ( $4 & $7 ). Recognize this one's decent 9:2-2-1-2 when breaking from the outermost two slots, in comparison to being 21:2-2-3-3 mark otherwise. Slight edge. #3 MACHO JACK had positively no excuse for immolating money at 3 to 5 last time out, but they all can't be winners kid, and the start before that was a corker. #1 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET has a nice declining record at this dx., ( 16:5-3-0 ), and is one of two with today's pilot. 


Race  3

1.Frankie Barone

2.Dynamax Prime

3.Mr. Fidget

#5 FRANKIE BARONE was a lively runner up directly behind a next out winner 22 days back, and appears to lay over pretty much the whole grouping but one -- our secondary selection, #3 DYNAMAX PRIME. Atras charge was kept in jail after the disappointing effort/claim on February 21st, and is dropped back down to the level from the score two back. Gelding has done some fine work beneath Manny Man ( 8:1-5-1-1 ), and we wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound. #1 MR. FIDGET is about a 13.2% better animal on a fast track than a wet one, so the last may be enough to land this one the most minor of spoils -- with everything going his way. 


Race  4 



3.Counterparty Risk 

#8 XANTHIQUE hasn't hit the board in her last quintet, but perhaps she just didn't dig being shipped around ( Toga to Belmont to Kentucky Downs to Belmont to Fair Grounds ), and by and large, this one's best work has come on the local circuit. Most timid of selections in a wide open feature. #1 KILKEA has been a model of consistency since last June, having partaken in the exacta in seven straight, and that includes a second off the L/O try as well as one from the pine. Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #4 COUNTERPARTY RISK is but a head shy of a three for four mark in turf routes, but was a mite flat in the Oldsmar finale, so we'll leave beneath.  OFF TURF: 9-6-2(MTO)-7-4


Race  5

1.Bella Principessa 

2.Sweet Larissa

3.Rainbow Gal

#1 BELLA PRINCIPESSA has been extremely green in both starts to date, veering in from the rail and the two whole, and while we're not tickled with today's draw, you'd have to think Rudy ( who is very hands on ) been working on sorting out that issue over the last month. We still think there's some upside with this one, and poses a big threat with a clean onset & a relaxing trip. #3 SWEET LARISSA is another one who has had some immaturity issues, but gets a positive switch in the jockey dept. here, and $45,000 auction purchase is smartly spotted by Hennig in for a nickel less than that. #5 RAINBOW GAL displayed some decent improvement from her first start to the next, as she showed less than a length behind a filly who won at next asking, upping her Beyer by 50% in the process. 


Race  6 

1.Three Jokers

2.Too Early


#3 THREE JOKERS ( "Jokerrrr....Jokerrr...aaaand a triple!!" ) has been beset by back to back layoff lines, and fell short in his lone try over this oval, but we've unearthed a couple of solid DRF Formulator trainer stats with this one. Over the last 260 weeks, Terranova is a perfect four for for with male allowance dirt stock ( 4 & up ) off breaks of 64-237 days @ 24-1 or less, and the payouts for that sampling were $10, $6 x 2 & $13. But as the late, great Billy Mays said, "But wait -- there's more !!"  During that same timeframe, barn is also 8:4-3-0 with males getting blinkers for the first time off breaks of two dozen days or more ( 60-1 or undah ), w/mutuels of $9 x 2, $10 & $6. Play of the meet. #6 TOO EARLY has been a part of the super in all five starts here, and that's reason enough to chunk in. #2 TIERGAN has proven two be a nice claim by Rudy Rod, ( 2:1-1-0 ) and is a major player. 


Race  7

1.The Big S


3.Macho Boy

#11 THE BIG S has closed out the exacta in his last two trips to a fast track, and was perfectly kept in jail by trainer Karl Broberg after the March 16th purchase, and that's something that's always easier to do if you're also the owner. Nibbling nature gives us a little pause for the cause, but we'll give this one a slight edge. #1 VARANGIAN lit up the totalizator board at 30-1 in his lone "second off the layoff foray and has some fair experience when loading first. #3 MACHO BOY has oodles of speed and is in good form these days.


Race  8 



3.Full Salute

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #2 KOSCIUSZKO ( a tough name to write ! ) has crashed the tri in his last triad, and is reunited with the eye cups today, with which he has an honest 7:1-1-2 record ( 18:2-2-3 otherwise ).  Meeeeeeekest of choices. #6 POPIZAR won the last two times he was entered at or < this level and has done excellent work going today's distance of ground ( 22:6-6-2 ). #5 FULL SALUTE hasn't been faced the starter in a couple of Christmas', but is two fer five off the bench, three fer nine in Ozone Park, and is showing a best of 61 bullet for this. 


Race  9 

1.Devil On the Loose

2.Bustin Shuffle

3.Captivating Cara

#3 DEVIL ON THE LOOSE showed zippo at first asking, but the 385 Tomlinson figure tells us to at least take another peek at this animal. Dam was 4:2-0-2 sprinting on a fast track, and daddy lost by a neck in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Jock has been awful for quite some time now, but is 7:0-1-2-1 at this stand ( @ big prices ) as of this writing. Bombs away. #10 BUSTIN SHUFFLE hasn't done much to get the pulse racing thus far, but there's a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump now, and gets the "Wonder Drug" for the 1st time. #2 CAPTIVATING CARA as grim as any for the show dough.  


Aqueduct          ( Current ):  10-52       ( $55.00 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-4   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   30-52    ( 57.7% )( As of Sunday Morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-12         ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites  Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout