SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 4/10


Decent day for us here yesterday, as we broke even on the win end, had a $42 cold Exacta & $98 Exacta Box, a $71 cold Triple & $1,085 Triple Box, and another successful Beatable Favorite.

Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the Jenny Wiley from Keeneland and Arkansas Derby from Oaklwn Park, merely go back one page.  

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 4/10


Race  1

1.False Alarm

2.Dang It

3.Our Destiny

#2 FALSE ALARM hasn't been seen since back to back up the track finishes at the end of 2020, but one of them was over softish going, and he got smacked around a bit in the other event. Gelding was given the winter off, and posted an adjusted 70.1 just prior to that ( a career best ), and may not be so hopeless if able to catch a flyer. #1A DANG IT is extremely light from a speed figure perspective, but we always like to give a horse two opportunities under a particular set of circumstances before discounting their chances, and this one is bred decently for the gramma while having shown speed in the lone turf try. #5 OUR DESTINY may perk up with the recent tes-tee-klee reduction ( it would definitely get our attention ).  OFF TURF: 2-5-11-1A-4


Race  2

1.Little Nutter


3.Mo Girl

#9 LITTLE NUTTER ( scratched Thursday for this ) hasn't been seen since being in the rear with the gear around Turkey Time, but the collection of adj. Beyers over firm ground ( 62.8 ( without Lasix, which is now back in play ), 64.3, & 64.4 ( in a stakes ) give this one a puncher's chance to make some noise in a race with a few question marks. Recognize that seven returnees from that November heat have amassed a cumulative 7:3-1-0-1 in their followup engagements, sooooo.....  #8 WOW was extremely flat when having Lasix added for her first dirt try, but deserves a chance to make amends on the switch back to the sod. #4 MO GIRL is a nicely bred half million dollar purchase who has a bullet gate breeze on display for today's overture, and that's something which always merits inclusion.  OFF TURF: 9-1-4-8-7


Race  3

1.Echoes of Destiny

2.Jimmy the Kid

3.Re Created

#9 ECHOES OF DESTINY lost by a whole bunch when tossed into the deep end of the pool after the maiden breaker, and is back in for a tag ( just like the maiden win ( and draws ideally ). #3 JIMMY THE KID is a zippy sort ( not Zippy Chippy, who turns 30 at Old Friends @ Cabin Creek on 4/17 ) outran his 17-1 offering when last facing the starter and will be gunning early. #6 RE CREATED undergoes a gamut of changes this afternoon --  first time blinkers, first time for a tag, and first time without his procreating abilities, and would need to find one to his liking to make an impression here.  


Race  4 



3.Moana's Tale 

#6 CARAMOCHA positively blew up the tote board when going all the way right here in November, the the tune of $202 ( ! ), but as she displayed very little in the subsequent pair, Mitch backed off her a bit ( albeit not on the worktab ). Seventh best of 314 ( wow, have never seen that many on a worktab before ) breeze on the 3rd pops off the page -- and it came from the gate, no less. 338 turf Tommy is quite solid, and mommy won her only turf dash. #2 IFIHADACHANCE is another going over the blades for the 1st time, and steady of unspectacular sort is by an excellent turf sire, who went 12:6-2-2 in his collection of outings on the verde, netting nearly $1.2 Mil. #8 MOANA'S TALE has been beset by three successive layoff lines, but is one of two over firm ground, and a Hall of Famer's now calling the shots.  OFF TURF: 6-5-2-4-3


Race  5


2.Mrs. Danvers


Today's featured event is named after the Hall of Famer Top Flight, and for some edification on that gal, please feel free to visit this site . As for the race itself, we'll give a tepid nod to the #1 FLASHNDYNAMITE. Philadelphia Park shipper outran her parimutuel offering when completing the Heavenly Prize triple at 47-1 five weeks in the rear, and historically speaking, owns a two fer three ledger when going 1X to 2X on the main. Toss in a nice 8 for 14 mark when breaking from posts 1-3 ( 4 for 16 otherwise ), and you have a runner who just may sit a perfect trip beneath a good rail rider. #3 MRS. DANVERS was a runner up in her one and only "Second off the L/O" deal, and found the line first in her lone try over this oval; logical, despite the recent disappointment. #5 HOROLOGIST is two for three in second off the bench jammies ( going two turns ), and pre layoff pilot returns, which is encouraging, given his one for two record aboard this one. 


Race  6 

1.Vettori Kin ( Brz )

2.Noble Thought

3.King of Spades

#3 VETTORI KIN (BRZ) is a lightly raced, Grade 3 winning eight year old who finds himself at his lowest level to date, and picks up Ortiz, who guided this one to a 3rd place finish a touch over a year ago. Mild selection. #6 NOBLE THOUGHT is a snappy four for six in third off the shelf heats, and was victorious in his only spin on the Inner. Recently lost by only a sliver when facing similar out at Santa Anita, and makes all kids of sense once again. #4 KING OF SPADES rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 8-6-13(MTO)-4-5


Race  7



3.Kid Bourbon

#6 ANANROAD is a bit short of a few others from a BSF perspective here, but is confidently shipped eastward after winning by a pole at Mahoning Valley back on the 9th of March, and four year old has yet to miss the superfecta in five starts over a glib surface ( 5:2-1-0-2 ). A longshot for sure, but 50-1 ? Hmmmm....we'll bite. #4 AASR cuts back today, and is 1-3 going one turn over a fast track. Will need some pace to cut into. #1 KID BOURBON won his only "3rd off a hiatus" affair, and was a gamely runner up the only time he loaded first. Only win came underneath the piloting of Manny Man, who's 2:1-1-0 whn partnering w/this one.  NOTE: AS OF 12:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 

1.Tiberius Mercurius 


3.Price Talk

#5 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS owns a win & a showing from as many starts off of this type of layoff, and best work has come over today's dx. of ground. Apprentice to journeyman angle in play here. #6 PENALTY returned from seven months in the box to trail the field down in Hallandale Beach in mid February, but we like that there's no scary drop for this 6YO "horse" ( You run when you see that vet, buddy ! ), especially as he's 3:1-0-1 in "true" 2nd off the bench deals. #3 PRICE TALK ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is but a length shy of a poyfect 4-4 ledger and has to be left in the mix.  OFF TURF: 5-6-3-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:28, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9 

1.Bustin Bieber


3.Flipping Fun

#3 BUSTIN BIEBER has lost by double digit lengths in every trip to the frontside, but is second off the hibernation today, and is in receipt of the miracle drug for the first time; could forget to stop if able to catch a flyer. #1 LIQUOR had nothing left in the bottle late in the game when going against this type 16 days in the rear, but has been ITM in two of three, and in a bad field such as this, that's something you can hang your hat on -- to a certain degree. #4 FLIPPING FUN ( uncoupled entrymate with our top selection always seems to be in the thick of things turning for home, and is as good as any for the show focaccia.   NOTE: AS OF 12:30 DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 8 & 6 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

Aqueduct          ( Current ):  10-43       ( $47.70 )   Beatable  Favorites     0-4   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   26-43    ( 60.5% )( As of Saturday Morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-12         ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites  Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout