SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 4/3 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Oaks & Santa Anita Derby
  
  

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Just a reminder for today'as full card selections & analysis for Aqueduct, AND Grade One coverage fron Keeneland ( Ashland & Madison ), merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 4/3 - Santa Anita Oaks & Santa Anita Derby

 

Race 6 

1.Soothsay

2.Javanica

3.Beautiful Gift

#3 SOOTHSAY got the job done first time out in a professional manner, when looping the field turning for home, and winning in going away fashion. 369 Tommy for today's dx. tells us that the stretchout should not be much of a concern, and as a matter of fact, there's a decent DRF Formulator statistic in play here. Over the last 60 months, Mandella is a crisp 3 for 7 with graded dirt stayers who procured the sheepskin 22-50 days back ( $5, $11 & $18 ), and there's a sub category of 1 for 1 with first time routers, and guess what race it was? Yup, the Santa Anita Oaks. Claiborne runner could be a goodie. #4 JAVANICA has been a part of the exacta in her last quintet, and we like that it's come under a myriad of circumstances. Gal switches from poly to the main here, and barn has won both times they've attempted such with routers who crashed the party 41-57 days back ( $5 & $6 ). #5 BEAUTIFUL GIFT has improved w/ each passing start for Bob Baffert's Baked Beans, and we'd be silly to exclude. 

 

       Race 8

1.Rock Your World

2.Dream Shake

3.Medina Spirit

#3 ROCK YOUR WORLD has finished first in both outings to begin his working life, and despite those forays being on the gramma, this one is much better bred for the sand, and we see a whole lot of room for improvement with this one. When it comes to his 2X Graded dirt equines who scored 20-50 days in the rear, "The Sad Man" is anything but, as he's a sublime 6 for 10 w/that type ( 8-1 or < ) with mutuels of $2 x 2, $3 x 2 & $7 x 2. #2 DREAM SHAKE was a well beaten 3rd behind Life Is Good in the San Felipe, but that one ain't here, and this one is eligible to take a big step forward today. #7 MEDINA SPIRIT has put together a nice resume for Lidocaine Bob, and should be left in the mix. 

  


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 3-16         ( $11.00 )   Beatable  Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites   Win  %:   11-16     ( 68.8% )( As of Saturday Morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 0-7           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites  Win %:     2-7       ( 28.7% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017