SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 4/9


Just a chalky three bagger on the day yesterday, as half the card was won by faves.

A simple reminder here that for today's selections & analysis of the Maker's Mark Mile from Keeneland, merely go back one page. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #11 Life on Top  Race 7 - #1 Price Talk ( only if the #1A is scratched )

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 4/9


Race  1

1.Lemon Drop Road

2.Dazzle Time 


#1 LEMON DROP ROAD flopped in the slop after a decent January debut, but blinkers were added that day, and they are promptly left back in the tack room this afternoon. All four returnees from that heat showed an average improvement of 12.2 points while going 4:1-1-0-0 ( from two different heats ), and Double-J is two for five with maiden special weight dirt dashers in the 46-50 day bracket ( $7 & $10 ). #4 DAZZLE TIME showed stark improvement when going one turn over a fast track in his last two outings, closing out the exacta in both, and the winner from the most recent won again, upping his BSF by six pts. in the process. Over the last 60 months, Nevin is 3-8 with locally based runners of this ilk who crashed the fiesta 34-50 days back, and colt should be right there once again. #2 ISLANDMAN hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but returns with eye cups & the miracle drug. 


Race  2



3.Mebs Web

#3 GRINGOTTS has hit the board in three straight, drops in class today, and barn has a tight DRF Formulator stat behind them, as they own a 5:3-1-0 mark with mid level dirt stock who were 1-2-3 less than a month back & are 10-1 or undah ( $5, $7 & $9 ). #1A MICROMILLION lost by just a sliver when in an identical spot on 2/19, but had a claim voided that day, so it would behoove you to take a peek in the paddock. #4 MEBS WEB has partaken in the superfecta in 10 of 11, and Avila more than doubles his normative 12% batting average with locally based sand runners at this level who haven't started in less than five weeks ( 16-1 or under ). 


Race  3

1.Second Fortune ( AE )


3.Me 'n Sap

#13 SECOND FORTUNE (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that come to bear, will be backed up by a decent trainer statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, elder statesman Bob Dunham ( who only wins 7% of the time ) is a crisp 7:2-0-2 sit sod sprinters who haven't been seen in less than 54 days and are 61-1 or undah. The winners in that survey were a robust $33 & $12, and there's a 1 for 2 sub category of those at this level, and a ( different ) 1 for 2 sub category with those who were in the money last out. #3 UNLIKELY hung up a ( for this allotment ) decent 56.1 in her lone turf try off a break, when losing by less than four at 96-1, and it came beneath today's pilot. #11 ME 'N SAP has a propensity for outrunning his odds more often than not, and that includes two honest efforts in the maiden claiming ranks.  OFF TURF: 12-11-6-5-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4 

1.Krakow Entry


3.Not That Brady

Both the #1A  SOCIAL GROUP ( two for three going one turn over this oval ) and #1 INDIAN COUNSELOR ( winner of his only start right here, and backed by an 11:4-3-1 trainer stat which has Kantarmaci at just that with freshly purchased dirt runners who tallied a win 20-50 days back @ 10-1 or lower ) comprise decent factions of the Krakow entry. #6 TAPIZEARANCE takes the obligatory hike in class after falling bit short against 25K foes, and we like when a new conditioner sees fit to leave the pre-claim pilot aboard ( especially when it's a low percentage bug ). 12:2-3-2 record at The Big A compared to the 7:0-1-2 mark otherwise, aids the cause. #5 NOT THAT BRADY is a long way removed from last year's Withers, Gotham & Wood, but digs the trip & can land a share. 


Race  5

1.Mr. Kringle

2.Bad Guy

3.The Sinner Is You

#8 MR. KRINGLE was doing some steady if unspectacular work on the gramma last year, before being given the winter off, rather than race on down south, and returns to the course of his lone triumph ( at $39, to boot ). Shotcaller Terranova is a healthy three fer five with his allowance turf stayers in the 67-207 day zip code, and the mutuels for that survey were $27, $28 & $6. Make sure you get some value here, with a pilot who's won just once in is last 86 or so NYRA outings. #5 BAD GUY is an okay 7:1-1-1-2 when going from green to brown, and said score came right here on the inner turf course; may be rolling late. #6 THE SINNER IS YOU rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 3-6-1-2-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 LIFE ON TOP fills the bill, as Brown is jsut 1-14 with NYRA turf stayers at this level in the 67-91 day bracket.


Race  6 

1.Royal Realm

2.Cousin Andrew


We have three solid sets of Daily Racing Form Formulator statistics here, and as it's Easter Sunday, we're gonna get right to 'em in a no frills manner.  #5 ROYAL REALM: Jimmy Jerkens owns a 7:3-3-0 boxscore with second time starters at this track and under these conditions off respites of 35-50 days ( $7, $8 & $4 ), and there's a sub category of 1 for 1 with those getting the hood and juice for the 1st time. #2 COUSIN ANDREW has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but has in fact closed out the exacta in all three starts to date ( two of 'em in Ozone Park ). 26% shedrow just about doubles hat average with Queens based, male mdspwt. dirt horses off hibernations of 51-651 days going off at 9-1 or under ( 3YO & up ), as they're a whopping 20:10-4-4-2 ( 100% ITM rate ) and has a $2.31 ROI as well. #4 SAVOY ( the second part of the uncoupled entry with our second choice ) is backed by a 6-14 stat when it involves this trainer bringing over runners fitting this criteria ridden by Manny ( 51-291 days ) & the return on investment is $2.24.


Race  7

1.Winters Back


3.Good Governance ( GB )

#2 WINTERS BACK has ( from an adjusted BSF point of view ) improved with each passing call to the post, ( including two sparkling scores right here ), and T.P. wipes the competition clean with his optional male turfers going long off breaks of 32-42 days ( 6-1 or below ), as he's a groovy 15:8-3-1-1 with 'em, and is on the positive side of the ROI ledger as well. #5 BODECREAM has thrown in but one clunker in his last nonet, and lost the bob in an ungraded stakes in his one and only go round on this course. We like this one's ability to send or rate a bit. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the running lines of #1A GOOD GOVERNANCE (GB), as this lightly raced five year old has done very little wrong in his abbreviated career. That mark includes a win off the pine, and this one is a mandatory inclusion.  OFF TURF: 3-5-2-1-1A  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 PRICE TALK ( only if the #1A is scratched ).


Race  8 

1.Loaded Joe ( AE )


3.On the Muscle

#13 LOADED JOE (AE) is on the outside looking in, but should one declare, he'll be led over by a 6% trainer who's substantially better ( 3 of 7 ) with his turfers being wheeled back in less than a dozen days, and just look at these prices -- $43, $25 & $27. Could pose a threat at a big number if able to be forwardly placed early on. #9 THRUSTER has been better on the verde than the brown stuff, and gets blinkers for the first time in the day's finale. #3 ON THE MUSCLE ( obviously, terminology used in horse racing, but also by police who are gratefully given a complimentary cup of coffee ) has a nice resume' and would be no surprise.  OFF TURF: 6-7-14(AE)-4-2 

Aqueduct          ( Current ):  8-35       ( $32.10 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-3   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   24-35    ( 68.6% )( As of Friday Morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-11       ( $22.40 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites  Win %:     4-11     ( 36.1% )

Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout