SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/27


Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the Florida Derby, merely go back one page.  

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/27


Race  1

1.Lem Me Have It

2.Rude Awakening

3.Fair Regis

#2 LEM ME HAVE IT showed very little when returning off nearly a four month layoff, and ended up in a new barn afterwards. Blinkers are removed this afternoon, and gal has done decent work locally, and deserves a chance to rebound in her first "2nd off the L/O deal" going short on the sand. #3 RUDE AWAKENING has proven to be a pretty good claim by Kerry back in December, as this one has paid her keep since then. Hard to argue with that 9 fer 9 ITM rate right here in Ozone Park, no? #1 FAIR REGIS bested weaker by a pole right here on the 26th of February, and has partaken in the triple in all five starts when first to load. 


Race  2

1.Home Run Maker

2.Mad Munnys

3.Pete's Play Call

#3 HOME RUN MAKER was in the rear with the gear when claimed for 32 large right here on 2/8, but if you can see your way clear of that flopola, then obviously this one rates a shot if able to get back into some of that back class. Mild choice. #1 MAD MUNNYS put forth an honest showing in this zip code at the end of last month, and is a snappy three of five when breaking from the innermost two slots ( in comparison to being 3-32 otherwise ). My good buddy Paul informs me that Reylu ( slated to return here ) is on an oh-fer-79 record on the NYRA circuit. #5 PETE'S PLAY CALL sure is a nifty ol' warhorse, as eight year old has amassed a 48:14-10-6 record, while also owning a cool 7:3-2-0 mark right here. Franco replaces the injured Vargas.   NOTE: AS OF 10:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR THIRD CHOICE.


Race  3

1.Lady By Choice


3.Jump For Joy

#3 LADY BY CHOICE is 2:1-0-1 off a break in the action 2 for 4 at The Big A, and 1 of 2 beneath today's jock. Not hopeless here, and may be overlooked at the windows a bit. #5 LETMETAKETHISCALL has done excellent work since being purchased by Jimmy Ferraro, having won three straight, while fighting the good fight against the opposite sex 27 days ago. Morales gets the assignment, and he just had a nice $18 winner as of this writing on Thursday. #2 JUMP FOR JOY has a 6:1-4-0 boxscore in true starts off the pine, and that 11:4-4-0 Queens record ain't to shabby, either. 


Race  4 

1.Summer Bourbon

2.Square Shooter

3.Storm Advisory

#2 SUMMER BOURBON was privately sold by owner/trainer Joe Parker after going back to back right here in January, and new trainer is showing but six start over the last five years ( huh ? ). All that being stated, you have to dig the delovely "declining" mark of 19:7-3-1 over this oval, as well as the nice rapport he seems to have w/ today's helmsman. #3 SQUARE SHOOTER hasn't faced the starter since winning and having his claim voided back in mid January, and five returnees from that event have come back to go 5:2-1-0-2 in their followup deals, with an avg. BSF improvement of 4.2 points per. Obvious factor if completely sound. #6 STORM ADVISORY has been alternating losses and wins over his last quintet, so today should be a tally, right? If only the game was that simple. 9YO makes his 78th start, and is still cashing all kinds of checks -- no matter the venue or the surface. 


Race  5


2.Sister Patricia

3.Dirty Bird

#3 WHYISSHESOLUCKY did nothing to get the pulse racing when taking the mandatory hike in class about three weeks ago, but chestnut gal has been a fairly steady performer prior to that, and we'll look for some improvement at double digit odds. Meeeeeeekest of selections in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 SISTER PATRICIA has lost ground in the lane in her last half dozen treks to the frontside, but there were a pair of decent running lines just before the last place finish, and we'll keep in the mix. #4 DIRTY BIRD ( "Give a hoot -- don't pollute !" ) has rolled four fours leading up to this event, and while that may pay off handsomely at the craps table in Vegas, here it just gets you some minor checks. Tossing in, but not with an abundance of enthusiasm. 


Race  6 

1.Ryan's Cat 


3.Family Biz

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #8 RYAN'S CAT positively annihilated $25,000 foes by a country mile on March 7th, and sheds four pounds off of that career best performance -- something we always dig. This one'll be precipitously lower than the 3-1 M.L. offering and should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #8 ZAEVION had his three race winning streak snapped about two months in the rear, and has been given a little time off to regroup off that defeat. Nothing wrong with having a 5:2-2-0 record at the dx. now, is there? #4 FAMILY BIZ burned some bred when last in action, but that race in fact yielded a lifetime best # for a wet track, so it was probably a little better than you may think; gelding seems to like the seagulls here as well. 


Race  7


2.Durkin's Call

3.Dark Storm

#8 TIVANO was a sharp victor when making his lone trip to AQU on New Year's Eve, and did such to the tune of $23. Last pair of starts produced grisly results, but like we've always said -- it often pays to go back three starts in order to find something positive, as it can aid in ferreting out some nice prices -- especially in open events such as this. #1 DURKIN'S CALL ( 11:3-4-1 at this dist. ) is one fer two when starting from the inside and completed the triple in his only start off a respite. May sort out a nice pocket trip. #9 DARK STORM faded a little bit when goin two turns in a tough spot about a month ago, but fear not, as this one got his Polaroid taken in his sole 2X to 1X heat ( $15 ), and draws well while retaining his favorite pilot.  NOTE: AS OF 10:56, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-1-9.


Race  8 

1.Violent Trick 

2.Daria's Angel


#4 VILOENT TRICK showed zippo in her 1st start off the DeLauro snag, but has a nice 10:4-2-1 mark going today's distance of ground, and could be dangerous if able to catch a flyer. #3 DARIA'S ANGEL was reclaimed by Noda last time out, and why not, as this one has done some fine work at this trip & over this strip. There seems to be a little starch out of the color over the last pair of starts, but we'll chunk in @ 10-1. #1 CHASENBRYN switches from an apprentice to a journeyman and can land a share. 


Race  9 

1.Musical Heart

2.Doubly Blessed

3.Air Attack

Another deal here where our troika of selections should suffice.   #1 MUSICAL HEART is the clear class of this deal, gets reunited with the captain of his most recent tally, and has hit the board in eight straight sand starts. Makes all kinds of sense on the Atras buy back, and is once again spotted against the purchase after accumulating about $46,000 of the $62,500 purchase price. Logical. #3 DOUBLY BLESSED shoots for the grand salami here, and it's well within reach, given this one's proclivity for success over his new love -- the dirt !  #12 AIR ATTACK loses a whopping nine pounds off a drawing away win right here 15 days back, and while a bounce is always possible off that career best fig, we see no reason to leave out. 


Race  10

1.Town Jak

2.Seven Lillies

3.Skyler's Scramjet

#10 TOWN JAK has been a part of the tri in his last 12 trips to the frontside, and we see very little reason for a reversal of fortune in today's finale. #11 SEVEN LILLIES has been abysmal in his recent two defeats when brushing at the start, but found the line first the last two occasions where she had tidy onsets, and one of those was a win beneath Manny Man in their lone pairing. #3 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET is 15:5-3-0 at Aqu., and that's reason enough to toss into the cake batter.  

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    82-446     ( $968.60 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-13( 38.5% ) Favorites  Win %:   153-446  ( 34.2% )( As of Saturday morning )  

Graded Stakes ( Current ):   0-6           ( $0.00 )    Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites  Win %:     2-6       ( 33.3% )

Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 ) Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout