SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont at Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 9/29
  
  

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We ended the week on a big note with a profitable grand slam ( $30, $29, $3 & $6 ), a $129 Ice Cold Exacta, four Rolling Doubles of $182, $21 x 2 & $13, two Rolling Pick Threes of $638 & $61, and a $138 Triple Box. Oh yeah -- toss in a successful Beatable Favorite for the head. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #1 Inspector


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont at Aqueduct - 9/29

 

Race  1

1.Firewolves

2.Funny How

3.Arrogant Lady

#1 FIREWOLVES hasn't been seen in seven flips of the calendar, but hit the superfecta in both starts over a glib surface, and we like how there's no scary drop as of yet. J/T combo is pretty decent, and we'll give this one the slightest of nods in an opener with but one first draft elimination. Backers of #6 FUNNY HOW were anything but amused when this one lacked some punch at 4-1, but filly draws ideally this afternoon, and hopefully won't make her supporters  feel like a clown once again. #4 ARROGANT LADY has missed two Independence Day's worth of racing, but is another pricey runner who's still protected against being purchased, and gets the wonder drug for the first time. 

 

Race  2

1.Rocket's Red Glare

2.Java Buzz

3.Smoke and Heat

#6 ROCKET'S RED GLARE ( "...and rockets -- I want plenty of rockets !!" ) showed precipitous improvement from his first start to the next, and three returnees from that day have gone 3:2-1-0 when next seen, with an average Beyer improvement of 11.7 pts. per ). From a DRF Formulator POV, Linda Rice ( who is still, yes, STILL awaiting final resolution on her license revocation ) is 8-22 with sod sprinters at this level who hit the board < 64 days ago @ 8-1 or less ( no juice ). The return on investment for that study was a fat $3.06, and there's a sub category of 2-4 with Irad in the irons. #7 JAVA BUZZ ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) gets a favorable post swap with the above since their last tango, but is a bit of a money burner, so we'll leave beneath; should be no worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit. #3 SMOKE AND HEAT has lost his eye cups along with his procreating abilities since being snagged on July 22nd, & is shoeing a scorching breeze for the comebacker.  OFF TURF:8(MTO)-4-3-7-6

 

Race  3

1.Donegal Surges

2.General Banker

3.Arctic Arrogance

#3 DONEGAL SURGES was a lively & well clear runner up when facing winners for the first time up north 34 days in the rear, and improved by approximately 15.2% from a BSF standpoint as well. Colt has worked well since and appears logical once again. #1 GENERAL BANKER missed third place money by only a noggin' in the aforementioned heat ( when being sent off at 40-1 ), and as Ferraro is on a 3:2-1-0 run, we'll include. #4 ARCTIC ARROGANCE went coast to coast like butter and toast when beginning his working life a couple of dozen days in the past and is a deserving favorite. 

 

Race  4 

1.Prairie Fire

2.Daily Briefing

3.Viradia

#5 PRAIRIE FIRE ( who has changed barns in her last troika ) was recently claimed by a bossman who's two of two with freshly claimed, mid level dirt stock who won 42-50 days ago ( $4 & $8 ); three of four streak over a track labeled FST aids the cause as well. #4 DAILY BRIEFING was a snazzy winner the only time she was in a 3rd off the L/O spot, & Terranova is a "Terror" when it comes to his runners of this ilk who missed the baccala < four dozen days in the rear ( 20-1 or lower ). The payouts for that sampling were $7, $3, $9 & $5 x 2, and there's a sub category of 2-4 right here. #2 VIRADIA has a 20:5-1-6 mark in Ozone Park, and that's cause enough to include. 

 

Race  5

1.Canarsie

2.Nobilis

3.Wanna Winna

#5 CANARSIE has a nicely hidden gate move amidst a bevy of ordinary works for today's bow, and brings along a near perfect 466 Tomlinson figure for today's distance of ground. The five immediate members of the family tree were a cumulative 5:4-0-0-1 first time out, and as an Edward R. Murrow alum, we approve of the moniker. #6 NOBILIS ( who looks to be a nice play ) was a daylight clear runner up in the 'Toga overture, but we'll leave beneath as Cancel has been grisly since August. #3 WANNA WINNA went for more than 6X the stud fee at the Saratoga Sales last year, and has been conducting his morning affairs in a professional manner for today's lid lifter.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 INSPECTOR doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  6 

1.Fouette

2.Keeper of Time ( Ire )

3.Kept Waiting

#7 FOUETTE lost by less than a pair when facing stakes foes last time out, and 4YO has fared decently in her third off the bench engagements. Meeeek choice. #2 KEEPER OF TIME (IRE) is one of two at the trip and owns a touch of back class. #4 KEPT WAITING owns a 5:1-2-1 mark off a break in the action, and was a smashing winner the only time she set her tootsies on this oval.  OFF TURF: 6-4-2-5-1

 

Race  7

1.Ocala Dream

2.Good Governance (GB) 

3.Starting Over 

#7 OCALA DREAM by no means disgraced himself when completing the superfecta in the Bernard Baruch at 14-1, and the runner up from that affair came back to set a track record right here on Saturday. Timid choice in a jammie that's difficult to hug. #6 GOOD GOVERNANCE is a fragile & lightly raced six year old who always seems to give a good account of herself, and is in a "3rd off the L/O" scenario for the first time. Sensible, but will take some pounding at the windows. #4 STARTING OVER aims for the hat trick her, and it's quite doable, given the way she's ascended the Beyer ladder of late.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-9(MTO)-1

 

Race  8 

1.Cryo

2.Gasoline

3.Up to the Mark

#7 CRYO is in top flight form since getting back to the routing game ( 3:1-2-0 ), and note that both comebackers from the most recent tally, returned victorious, upping their BSF's an avg. of six points each in the process. #5 GASOLINE went all the way when making a second left for the first time a month back, and as this one has yet to toss in a true stinker, we're betting the tally was legit. #6 UP TO THE MARK rounds out the top three. 

 

Race  9 

1.Storm the Empire

2.West Star

3.Deliberate Risk

#5 STORM THE EMPIRE displayed a bit of early hoof when getting his working papers up in the Adirondacks, and after getting roughed up some at the onset -- when breaking from a disadvantageous post -- could be forgiven the end result to a degree. Six returnees from that deal went 6:2-1-1-1 in their ( four ) followup races, with all but one showing some improvement in the numeros department. From a pedigree perspective, we see that she's a half to a multiple stakes winner who was 18:6-4-1 on the sand ( 332K earned ) who placed in his first two outings, as well as another multiple stakes winner who was 4:3-1-0 on a fast track, who had a win & a placing in her first two forays. From a family tree aspect, the immediate six members went 12:5-1-2-3 in their initial two attempts, and we think we've established more than enough reason to give this one a second chance -- especially when glancing at the last gate move. #1 WEST STAR is a January foal w/sweet bloodlines & would be no surprise. #9 DELIBERATE RISK was outrun in the debut, but Prat sees fit to take the call for a barn that he's on a 3:2-0-1 run with ( $6 & $30 ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 


Aqueduct               ( Current ):  21-79   ( $142 )     Beatable  Favorites     1-4  ( 25% )     Favorites  Win %:  35-79   ( 44.7% )    ( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  9-39      ( $77 )       Beatable   Favorites:   1-2  ( 50% )     Favorites  Win %:  16-38    ( 42.1% )

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Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3433-17431 ($29438.80)  Beatable Favorites : 417-1530( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6555-17441 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3517-17999   ( $30,258 )   Beatable Favorites : 432-1598( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6565-17685 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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