SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/1



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #4 Kuramata  Race 9 - #6 Fast N Fearious

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 7/1


Race  1


2.U Cant Handle This

3.Dance for Bourbon

#4 TOOSWEETTOBESOUR has been befallen by back to back layoff lines, and but grey gal finds herself at her lowest level to date, loses the eye cups, and gets a second crack over a glib surface. Mild choice in one of the weakest races you'll see in these parts. #1 U CANT HANDLE THIS has ( for this allotment ) a pair of "recent decent" speed figures, and completed the triple in her one try at this level. #5 DANCE FOR BOURBON is a state bred facing open foes for the first time, but that shouldn't really matter too much here, and blinkers are now a part of the makeup. 


Race  2

1.War Canoe

2.Blue Atlas


#2 WAR CANOE sure is a salty ol' gal, ain't she ? Stakes placed gal had her first win over the Inner Track ( remember that ? ) way back when, and was still finding the winner's circle as of last fall, and although her best days may be in the rear view mirror, we're assuaged by a solid DRF Formulator trainer stat is in play this afternoon. Over the last 60 months, 14% Klesaris more than quadruples that rate with locally based mid level sod stayers off breaks of seven weeks or less, as he's 8:5-2-0 w/that type, with solid mutuels of $15, $6, $11, $20 & $17. #4 BLUE ATLAS hasn't been seen since the fall, but is 3:1-0-1 off the bench ( on firm ground ), and is two of three when going long on a firm Widener. #7 JUXTAPOSE put forth a solid effort when placing off an elongated absence, and Morey owns a 4-11 ledger when stretching out his turfers off breaks of two months or less ( 14-1 or undah ), and the returns for that sampling were $15, $8, $7 & $9, with a sub category of 1-1- right here,  OFF TURF: 1-2-1A-6-7


Race  3

1.No Code

2.Cheeky Tico

3.River of No Return

#4 NO CODE showed precipitous improvement 2nd time out, and is confidently hiked up a dime off that effort. Slight edge. #5 CHEEKY TICO overcame some trouble to jazz up the triple the only time he transitioned from green to brown ( at 39-1 ), and loses the hood today while dropping for the second straight time. Ridgling ( ouch ) has yet to miss a superfecta on the sand. #6 RIVER OF NO RETURN has a nicely tucked away bullet breeze for today's first afternoon trek to the frontside, and aside from being a 4YO facing a few younger competitors, went for about 27X the stud fee at auction. Worth noting that of the four immediate members of the family tree we were able to dig up, two won at first asking, one scored in the followup to the bow, & another got teh job done 3rd time out. 


Race  4 

1.Air Show

2.Reckless Spirit


#8 AIR SHOW showed zippo in the lone turf attempt, but we always give a runner two shots under a particular set of circumstances before discounting their chances, and this one is in fact a half to one who went 6:1-3-1-1 in turf routes, banking 39 large. Timid selection in a race that's difficult to hug. #10 RECKLESS SPIRIT overcame a touch of trouble to close out the triple when returning off a half'a calendar hibernation, and we're seeing an opportunity for improvement for this $185,000 bred animal ( who's banked less than half of that to date ) as he is one of three in 2nd off the shelf jammies. #6 MONTATHAM has gotten the show dough both times when going from 1X to 2X and should be right there once again.  OFF TURF: 10-5-6-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:24, #'s 2 & 5 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES.  


Race  5

1.Royal Velvet

2.Dr Oseran

3.Alcazaba ( Ire )

#4 ROYAL VELVET is a $15,000 bred animal who went for seven times that amount at Keeneland a year ago, and firster has been shipped down to Belmont after a nice gate work @ Oklahoma 17 days back. Runner is 3/4's to barnmate Voodoo Zip, who has a snappy 13:3-6-3 on the verde, while netting 218G to date. From a trainer stat perspective, C-Squared owns a 3-10 boxscore with those fitting all this exact criteria, with payoffs of $21, $7 & $24 ( while being 1-1 with Joel in the stirrups ). #1 DR OSERAN ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) is the first foal to race out of a dam who was just 1 for 4 on the sand, but the Tomlinson is honest enough, and Prat sees fit to ride. #3 ALCAZABA (IRE) was privately purchased after showing a nice "Z" pattern in the debut, and as the grandsire was 9 of 18 going over the blades ( while making $3,000,000 in the process ), we have no qualms including.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-2-1A(MTO)


Race  6 

1.Empire Hope



#3 EMPIRE HOPE becomes a professional this afternoon, and gal is a half to Sassy Image, who was 17:7-3-1 on the main, earning more than 827 big ones. Brown sees fit to bring this one up from the Shore, when there were likely easier options there. #2 JABBERWOCK gets blinkers added for today's second spin on a fast track, and could wake up. #5 MATTAPOISETT ( a town in Massachusetts ) is an extremely well bred ( and expensive ) January foal getting suited up for the 1st time here, and wouldn't be much of a surprise. 


Race  7


2.Striking Speed

3.Don't Wait Up

#5 CAPONE has improved with each passing start, culminating with a maiden breaking effort at this locale last month, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #4 STRIKING SPEED has a touch of early zip & is one for three at today's dist.; may spice things up a touch if able to set easy splits. #7 DON'T WAIT UP has a touch of back class & has recently lost his reproducing abilities. Could be sitting on a goodie for today's 3rd start off the pine.  NOTE: AS OF 12:28 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  8 

1.Slicked Back


3.Offlee Naughty

#1 SLICKED BACK returned off an absence only to flop & be sent right back to the bench once again, so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a gander pre race. The good news, tho, is that Johnny takes the assignment, and this chap has a 2 of 4 record outside of the stakes ranks. #3 KINENOS got his picture snapped the only time he was in a "true" second off the L/O spot on firm going, and uncoupled entrymate w/the above is 3:1-0-1-1 on the ITC. #5 OFFLEE NAUGHTY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-2-9-8-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 KURAMATA fills the bill, as Brown IS 0-10 in all relevant categories.


Race  9 

1.Loaded Joe

2.Boom Boom Kaboom


#5 LOADED JOE fought the good fight when showing at 13-1 in an identical spot a month and a half back, and while logical once again, may be a tad overlooked parimutually in today's wide open nitecap. #12 BOOM BOOM KABOOM prefers the fringes more than anything else, and we can think of more appetizing things to do than use Cancel from the 12 hole at shortish odds, so will slide beneath. #3 STEELERSFANFORLIFE finished just a head behind BBK most recently, but will relegate to the unders because of the nordic pilot.  OFF TURF: 8-13(MTO)-1-9-3  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 FAST N FEARIOUS


Belmont             ( Current ): 76-353  ( $466 ) Beatable   Favorites    6-24 ( 25% ) Favorites  Win %: 130-353 ( 36.6% ) ( As of Friday Morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )   Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )  Favorites  Win %:  8-26      ( 30.7% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout