SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/30
  
  

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Two weeks left in the meet, as we look to finish strongly. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/30

 

Race  1

1.Fourwaystop

2.Lady Wildcat ( Ire )

3.Love Tank

#3 FOURWAYSTOP was a mite tardy to the party when starting things out earlier in the month, but still managed to close out the tri at 15-1 that day, and the decent pedigree tells us that the result was likely not an aberration. Mild choice in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #1 LADY WILDCAT (IRE) begins his working life this afternoon, and of the two descendants of the family tree that we were able to dig up, one placed in his lone start, and the other placed at 1st asking, before following that up with a win. Note that Rosario is also named on this one's entrymate, so one must be scratched. #4 LOVE TANK got smacked around a touch in the bow and adds blinkers off that effort.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-6(MTO)-1A  NOTE: AS OF 11:44, #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  2

1.Scorpion Dynasty

2.Irish Giant

3.Truebelieve

#3 SCORPION DYNASTY hasn't been seen since the all out win more than four months ago, but has a couple'a decent works for the comebacker, and owns a win over the strip. Slight edge. #4 IRISH GIANT is 5:1-1-1-1 locally & has partaken in the superfecta in his last troika. #5 TRUEBELIEVE is another check earner, and this one switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today. 

 

Race  3

1.Strong Embrace

2.Radiant Gem

3.Spooky Road

#2 STRONG EMBRACE has yet to finish out of the money, and from a DRF Formulator point of view, Maker is a tight 3-7 with sod stayers at this level who crashed the fiesta 43-67 days back ( $5, $11 & $6 ). #4 RADIANT GEM got up in time to procure the sheepskin on the Inner 20 days back, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a spell. #1A SPOOKY ROAD has been laid up a bit since the Bayou maiden breaker, and is showing a bullet breeze in a minute flat for the return.  OFF TURF: 6-3-5-1-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:20 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Die to a gate scratch in R3, #6 will be our 3rd selection.

 

Race  4 

1.Crypto Cash

2.Peruvian Boy

3.Dark Storm

#2 CRYPTO CASH is on a 5:2-3-0 run of late, owns a 9:3-3-0 record at today's distance of ground, and from a trainer stat perspective, Atras owns a 9:5-1-1 ledger with his freshly purchased mid level dirt stock who were 1-2-3 < 51 days in the rear right here ( $3.21 ROI ). Pre claim pilot returns, which we always see as a positive. #6 PERUVIAN BOY is wheeled right back after being bought on Friday, and Linda Rice ( who is still, yes STILL awaiting final resolution on her license revocation ) is 4 of 7 w/runners at this level who missed the boardless than a dozen days back ( $14, $9 & $6 x 2 ). #1 DARK STORM has done his best work at this trip & could perk up with the blinker addition. NOTE: AS OF 12:24 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  5

1.Silent Running

2.Olympic Dreams

3.Conquist

#5 SILENT RUNNING has beset by back to back layoff lines, but the adjusted speed figure from his initial turf attempt was a goodie, and the top six finishers from that event who have come back to race, have amassed a 6:2-0-1-1 record from five sui generis races. #10 OLYMPIC DREAMS begins his working life in this spot, and there's a touch of green in the family tree. #9 CONQUIST as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF:1(MTO)-2(MTO)-8-5-7

 

Race  6 

1.Devil's Code

2.Scotto

3.Cajun Commander

#1 DEVIL'S CODE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but won his only start off a respite ( on a fast track ), and from an itty bitty survey, shedrow is two of four when putting his sand stock up for sale for the first time ( 51+ days ), with mutuels of $16 & $4. #5 SCOTTO was likely "given" the most recent, as he was away for quite some time, isn't particularly well bred for the gramma, and Looie comes back for a return engagement. #7 CAJUN COMMANDER showed behind a next out winner in a near identical spot on the 8th of May, and can land a share once again. 

 

Race  7

1.Thrill of It

2.Full Moon Fever

3.Price Discipline

#2 THRILL OF IT split the field at 21-1 when tangling with winners for the first time, and runner who's making his second start off the pine, got his Polaroid taken in his lone start off a similar layoff situation. Not a lot of speed signed on, so we wouldn't be surprised to see this one forwardly placed beneath the bug. #4 FULL MOON FEVER has hit the board in 8 of 12, and that includes both attempts over this oval. Leaving beneath because of the barn's cold run. #7 PRICE DISCIPLINE was a visually impressive victor right outta the box and is logical once again.  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  8 

1.Q F Seventy Five

2.Conquer the World

3.Easter ( Fr ) 

#2 Q F SEVENTY FIVE gave up the ghost after opening up a huge lead in the most recent, but gelding has essentially improved with each passing turf start, and makes all kinds of sense for today's third off the layoff engagement. #10 CONQUER THE WORLD was positively grisly on the 3rd, but perhaps he just didn't dig the soft going that day, and given the 79-84-85 turf progression prior to that, we'll accord him the opportunity to make amends. #7 EASTER (FR) by no means disgraced himself when losing by only four in the G1 Man 'O War & should appreciate today's class relief.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9

 

Race  9 

1.Jazz Time Girl

2.Miss Sugar Hill ( GB ) 

3.Mostly Harmless

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #9 JAZZ TIME GIRL has posted a pair of strong efforts in both starts over firm ground, and takes the biggest drop in the biz for today's start off the bench/second time Lasix deal. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the BSF's of #4 MISS SUGAR HILL (GB), as this miss seems to be figuring it out as she goes along. We don't consider this a "drop", per se, but Flavah Flav adds to the allure. #8 MOSTLY HARMLESS has gone 59-62-68-70 in all her turf dashes thus far, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards; should be no worse than 3rd here for those who like to grind out a show profit.  OFF TURF: 12-4-5-10-15(MTO)

 

Belmont             ( Current ): 75-344  ( $455 ) Beatable   Favorites    6-24 ( 25% ) Favorites  Win %: 127-344 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )   Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )  Favorites  Win %:  8-26      ( 30.7% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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