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Another washout of a day yesterday, and methinks the track will be a quagmire ( giggity ) once again today. 

With the NHC Championship less than 6 weeks away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Patriots https://petsforpatriots.org/ ( Giving our service members and veterans the unconditional love of a shelter pet who needs a home. ) Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 1/6

 

Race  1

1.Rogue Nation

2.Double Deep

3.Domain

#2 ROGUE NATION returned off the L/O in a big way, getting the job done while drawing away in convincing fashion. The numbers have improved with each start, and although the front wraps were added in the last, we're assuaged by the fact that this barn is a tidy 3 for 6 when stepping up locally based mid level dirt stock by 50% or more off a score ( $7, $4 & $6 ). #3 DOUBLE DEEP ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) has partaken in the exacta in three straight ( one of those a win versus slightly weaker last time out ), and is backed by a 4-12 trainer stat which has them winning at that rate with those fitting all this exact criteria off breaks of 15-31 days ( $3, $5, $4 & $32 ). #4 DOMAIN -- one half of the uncoupled Rice entry -- ( sigh...six horses, but four trainers ? ) shoots for the hat trick today, and you simply have to respect animals who beat winners in their first attempt.

 

Race  2

1.Chateau

2.Ragnar Lothbrok

3.Takeoff

#1 CHATEAU was sent to the shelf after being claimed from a disappointing effort back at the end of September, and apparently the respite did the trick as he got the diploma in his 16th try. Sometimes when the light bulb comes on it can stay on, and aiding the cause is the fact that the "Miracle Man" is a whopping 10:7-1-1 with 2nd off the layoff maiden breakers who scored 21-63 days back & are 6-1 or undah ( $4.30+ ROI ). #3 RAGNAR LOTHBROK was given a bit of a break after tiring in the most recent, and returns under a pilot who has done good work for this clan; can send or rate. #2 TAKEOFF has hit the board in 8 of 11 & will be entered for an all time low this afternoon.  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Our Honor

2.Bold Gem

3.Alrahaal

#1 OUR HONOR has hit the board in all three starts thus far, but the two layoff lines give us a little pause for cause today. That being said, 23% Rice nearly doubles that batting average with freshly claimed dirt dashers at this level off L/O's of more than 50 days . She's 9:4-2-2 in that area, with mutuels of $4, $7, $8 & $4 ). #7 BOLD GEM takes the biggest drop in the game and catches a fast track for just the 2nd time. #6 ALRAHAAL regressed appreciably second time out and is properly dropped back down to the claiming ranks here by McL. Obvious factor if able to get back to that sharp debut.  NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Captain Frost

2.Letzgometz

3.Durkin's Call

#3 CAPTAIN FROST dug the drop in class and/or the blinker addition to his liking in the most recent foray, as he went coast to coast like butter and toast on Monday & is wheeled right back by Rice who's 2 for 4 when doing that to her maiden breakers on the sand ( 15-1 or lower ). Junior had options here and he leaned this way. #4 LETZGOMETZ ( ugh ) positively blitzed maidens to the tune of $40 about three weeks back, and deserves your respect once again. #6 DURKIN'S CALL has improved with each and every start & is showing a bullet since the last.  NOTE: AS OF 11:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Tazmonian Devil

2.Awesome Adversary

3.Poker Game

#8 TAZMONIAN DEVIL has faced four next out winners from ten competitors ( over just seven different races ), and not only is that nothing to sneeze at, but either is the 392 Tomlinson for this one's second start at the trip and over a fast track. This is the only runner dropping in class here. Watch out. #5 AWESOME ADVERSARY gave an honest enough showing in the 12/14 try, and although Friedman wins just 9% of the time, he does in fact own a snazzy 8:4-1-1 mark with Ozone Park mdclm. sprinters on the sand who were 1-2-3 15-31 days back ( $4, $9, $6 & $8 ). #1 POKER GAME improved substantially from the first start to the second ( the big drop likely had something to do with it ) and gets a big time jockey switch while drawing snugly for today's flat mile.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO CHOICES.

 

Race  6 

1.Tayler's the Boss

2.Sweet August Lady

3.Fingerpaint

#2 TAYLER'S THE BOSS took the obligatory hike up the ladder for the first off the Kantarmaci claim, and by no means disgraced herself when closing out the triple at 23-1 on December 14th. Four year old has done okay work here, and 16% boss is a smart 9:5-2-2 with second off the purchase mid level dirt sprinters who were a part of the party in their last and are 10-1 or lower ( $7, $11, $3, & $8 x 2 ). #3 SWEET AUGUST LADY finds herself at her lowest level to date and ( from an itty bitty survey ) Brown owns a 3:2-1-0 ledger with AQU based mid level dirt animals off breaks of 48-96 days ( $17 & $6 ). #5 FINGERPAINT is scheduled to be shipped up here from Charles Town for this, and she owns a third place finish over the course.

 

Race  7

1.Shak's Hidden Gem

2.Diamond Princess

3.My Best Friend

#6 SHAK'S HIDDEN GEM has smartly been given a bit of a breather by Contessa after the last, and deservedly so, as the stakes try against open foes was simply too much too bear. As this one has done nothing but race on the sod, the time since has been spent getting more acclimated to the brown stuff. The jazzy move on New Year's Eve tells us that she's digging it just fine, thank you, and there's a sweet DRF Formulator stat in play. Over the last 60 months, 10% shedrow is a fat 7:5-0-1 when spotting high level runners with a tag for the first time ( 112 days or less ) at 7-1 or below on this circuit ( $7, $15, $5, & $9 x 2 ), and we'd love to see Double D sit a nice stalking trip off the speedsters. #2 DIAMOND PRINCESS had the hood slapped last out, and essentially went all the way to grab the sheepskin. Logical right back, but be aware that some horses regress in the second start after a positive equipment/medication change. #4 MY BEST FRIEND has done little wrong to date and gets in light off a solid effort.

 

Race  8 

1.Mascarello

2.Tribecca

3.Speightful Kitten

#7 MASCARELLO is winless on the dirt, but has made the super in 3 of 5 over this strip and rates the weakest and meekest of selections in a finale that we can't get a good feel for. #3 TRIBECCA received the unkindest cut of all after fading when last seen, and would not be surprised to see this one relaxing a bit more today. ( I know it would relax the hell out of me, that's for sure. ) #1 SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN comes in today off a career best figaro and drops a pound while sliding in eight slots. Lone dirt try over a fast track yielded a solid runner up finish, and may improve off of that.  NOTE: AS OF 11:39, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-1-8.

 


Aqueduct      ( Current )     2-26      ( $10.50 )     Beatable Favorite       2-3  ( 66.7 % ) Favorites Win %:    10-26  ( 38.5% )( As of Sunday Morning )

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Aqu Fall/Winter '( Final )   56-308   ( $498.60 )   Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )  Favorites Win %: 111-316 ( 34.2% )

Belmont            ( Final )   51-320   ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-83   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-83     ( 43.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017