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Let's just make believe yesterday didn't happen, shall we ? 

With the NHC Championship less than 6 weeks away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #1 Eye Luv Lulu  Race 7 - #8 Fully Vested


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/5

 

Race  1

1.Causin' Trouble

2.Needs No Ice

3.Youmakemeblush

#7 CAUSIN' TROUBLE posted a 48.2 in the lone start over a fast track, and we like that this one progressed nicely in the second off the L/O try for Duggan. The blinkers are removed today and this one can make an impact if able to save some ground. #8 NEEDS NO ICE has closed the exacta in two straight and who are we to rock that proverbial boat? #1 YOUMAKEMEBLUSH has torched a lot of baccala thus far, and we'll keep using underneath until she can show otherwise.  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO SCRATCHES & THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-8-4.

 

Race  2

1.Playwright

2.Monteleone

3.Expert

#4 PLAYWRIGHT is a bit of a nibbler over the course of his career, but has done his finest work over the last septet, having won three outings ( all at this trip ). Gargan ( who's having a spectacular meet thus far ) keeps this one claim protected today, and ( from a limited sampling ) is 2 for 3 with locally based allowance dirt stock at this level who won < 38 days ago. We love when they drop weight off a win. #5 MONTELEONE has steadily improved over his last four and shoots for the hat trick today. Gelding digs this joint. #6 EXPERT has been a popular item at the claim box throughout his career ( been snagged in 4 of 5 ) and was recently re-claimed by Papa Englehart. Four year old has some nice tactical speed and draws well ( won the only time having broken from the outermost two slots ). 

 

Race  3

1.Winifred J

2.Delta Gamma

3.Cornetta's Choice

#1 WINIFRED J has a nice overall body of work, and despite burning some baccala in the most recent, gave it the ol' college try in last. We're assuaged by the fact that Barker ( 14% on the norm ) is 4:3-0-1 with maiden special weigh dirt sprinters who crashed the party less than 52 days ago ( 6-1 or less ). The winners in that sampling paid $13, $7 & $3, and we like that this one has rail experience. #7 DELTA GAMMA was a well beaten but well clear runner up at first asking, and while sensible here, will likely be overbet. #8 CORNETTA'S CHOICE has posted solid numeros in both starts to date, and note that they were against open foes. Stone takes the helm. 

 

Race  4 

1.Sonic Force

2.Mrs. Orb 

3.In Denile

#3 SONIC FORCE is a viable alternative to the other experienced runners in here, as they come with some question marks attached, and this one has the "Diamond in the Rough" theory in play ( one crisp work amidst a bevy of ordinary moves ). This one is the first dirt runner from a dam who was also unraced on the sand, but daddy won his only dirt foray, and of course the grand pappy needs no introduction. #8 MRS. ORB has partaken in the super in all of her starts over a glib surface & is extremely sensible once again. #1 IN DENILE is second off the break today and has worked extremely well since last seen.  NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-6-4.

 

Race  5

1.Reed Kan

2.Sudden Surprise

3.Still Krz

#5 REED KAN has gone pillar to post in four straight on the sand, and drops weight off a win for the SECOND straight time. Destroys these. #7 SUDDEN SURPRISE is a sensational 12 for 28 lifetime, 5 for 9 at the trip, and can complete the Hernandez/Hernandez exacta. #2 STILL KRZ is as good as any to round out the exacta in a heat where we really don't have any feel in regards to the "unders".  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO TEN TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-1-6.

 

Race  6 

1.Therisastormbrewin

2.Smooth Tales

3.Judge Stanton

Once again we'll be siding with a Charlie Baker firster to grab all the glory today, this time being the #7 THERISASTORMBREWIN. This is a February foal facing younger competitors today, and the 371 Tomlinson for the trip is purdy good. The last two workouts catch the eye, and this is a half to a 7 for 26 dirt sprinter. Mild choice. #2 SMOOTH TALES is another beginning his professional working life this afternoon, and despite the works being humdrum, sire Forty Tales was exceptional at this trip, and Manny hops on. #10 JUDGE STANTON has been performing admirably in the mornings for today's overture, and dam was 1-3 @ the dx. NOTE: AS OF 12:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 1:06, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-2-7.

 

Race  7

1.Stoney Bennett

2.Bon Raison

3.Have Another

#4 STONEY BENNETT has led in 18 of his last 20 official points of call since switching barns ( winning three of five ), and DO NOT let the move into open ranks dissuade you with this one, as he beat straight 50K claimers up at the Spa this year -- and that's just a notch below this level. From a minuscule sampling, Rice is a nice 2 fer 4 with third off the shelf Aqueduct sand sprinters at this level coming in off a win ( $4 & $11 ). #2 BON RAISON has a win and a placing the only two times he went from two turns to one, and that's enough reason for us to include -- especially at a decent number. #6 HAVE ANOTHER has been in the money in all three 2nd off the L/O attempts and gets a tremendous jockey upgrade here.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 FULLY VESTED doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-3-7.  NOTE: AS OF 1:08, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-7-2.

 

Race  8 

1.Pauseforthecause

2.Satisfy

3.Byself

#10 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE is but a length shy of a grand slam, ( with the lone blemish in a similar spot at Big Sandy on 10/20 ) and overcame an inside slot when fanning five wide to win right here in the latest. Lone try from an outside post resulted in a tally as well, and we'll give this one the nod. #9 SATISFY has been brought along slowly by the Hall of Famer Mott, and it appears to be bearing fruit, as this one has yet to miss an exacta finish in seven outings ( the majority of them wins ), and although a touch light in the speed figure dept., we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude. #8 BYSELF has a very strong record on the brown stuff, and that includes a runner up finish in the lone "2nd off the bench" go round.  NOTE: AS OF 12:47, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-8-10.

 

Race  9 

1.Won't Be Missed

2.Bobby G

3.Storm Scat

#8 WON'T BE MISSED hasn't shown much since making us look like superstahs up north last summer ( beaten just two home in five starts since ), but when it comes to runners at this level, sometimes you can get a solid price by finding a glimmer of hope in their last running line. In this one's case, we like that he bested half the field home in last at nearly 100-1, and earned a best career numero ( aside from the win ) in the process. What happened the last time he hung up a top number ( other than the win ) ? he won next time out !  8% clan more than doubles that rate ( 2-12 ) when going one turn to two with their dirt horsies available for purchase on the dirt who were OTB 13-31 days back ( $8 & $29 ). #6 BOBBY G lost by less than two & less than one in the only times stretching out like this, and now finds himself at his lowest level to date. Manny Man been slayin' it when riding for this outfit. #9 STORM SCAT gets in light. 

 

Aqueduct      ( Current )     1-17      ( $4.10 )       Beatable Favorite       0-1   ( 0.0 % ) Favorites Win %:    8-17     ( 47.1% )( As of Saturday Morning )

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Aqu Fall/Winter '( Final )   56-308   ( $498.60 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )  Favorites Win %: 111-316 ( 34.2% )

Belmont            ( Final )   51-320   ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-83   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-83     ( 43.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017