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With the NHC Championship less than 6 weeks away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/4

 

Race  1

1.She'll Do

2.Excess Capacity

3.Fancy That

#2 SHE'LL DO put together smart back to back efforts to start out her career down at Delaware, and has since been transferred over to the Pletcher barn. When it comes to getting new horses in his shedrow and spotting them in a dirt sprint, ( 70-140 days ) he owns a 5 for 9 mark with the winners coming back $6, $8, $4, & $3 x 2. Race goes through her. #4 EXCESS CAPACITY my prove to be  anice claim by good guy Dave Duggan, as he saw fit to plunk down half a C-Note for this one on 12/9, and was happy that she only finished second that day, because now she's still eligible for this condition. DD keeps her protected against the claim today, and pre-claim pilot returns -- which we always dig. #3 FANCY THAT split the field in the Saratoga bow on their penultimate day, and Kiaran has brought this one back slowly since then, culminating with a crisp morning move last Thursday. Major threat if fully cranked.

 

Race  2

1.Pulsate

2.U R Not So Bad

3.Spun to Run

#5 PULSATE has posted two solid #'s to start things out in his working life, and accomplished such under two different sets of circumstances ( turf & dirt ), which we dig, as it sows versatility. Breeding says that neither result was an aberration, and as he's shedding some poundage today, is eligible to move forward. #3 U R NOT SO BAD was extremely disappointing in the most recent, but has eye cups added here, and inconsistent sort could be a zero or hero this afternoon. #2 SPUN TO RUN has improved with leaps and bounds in each & every start ( just missing by a half at 36-1 in last  ) and catches a fast track for the first time now.

 

Race  3

1.Solitary Gem

2.Diamond Jen Brady

3.Aly's All Out

These three and no more for all our rolling action... #6 SOLITARY GEM had a little trouble at the onset of last, but still managed to close out the tri versus slightly tougher, and ain't facing no worldbeaters. Lone win cam at the trip & over the strip. #4 DIAMOND JEN BRADY broke her maiden right here, and pre layoff jock comes back, despite the last two disappointments. #5 ALY'S ALL OUT flopped in the first try against winners, but hey, that ain't exactly an easy task, ya know? Gal now sheds some weight ( I'm jealous after the holidays ) and can make amends. 

 

Race  4 

1.Dizzy

2.Regal Retort

3.Whyishesolucky

Once again, we won't be going any deeper than this troika for all our bets. #2 DIZZY faded a little bit late in the game back in mid November, but takes the biggest drop in the game today and her best work has come over a glib surface. Three returnees from that affair have gone 1-1-0-1 in two separate starts next out, ( with all three improving & two of them hanging up a 66 and a 69 ) and you may get a touch of value here. #1 REGAL RETORT completed the triple in a slightly strung out field when debuting on December 9th for the As-Man, and gets a significant jockey upgrade for this. #4 WHYISHESOLUCKY is another one sliding down the ladder, and the overall body of work says to include. 

 

Race  5

1.Let Me Go First

2.Admiral Blue

3.Shamcat

#6 LET ME GO FIRST was up the track in the comebacker and is essentially halved in class today by Rudy Rod ( who also conditions our secondary selection ). Six year old is one for four in second off the layoff tries and has a pair of showings from as many times going from one turn to two. Slight edge in a tight affair. #4 ADMIRAL BLUE is 3:2-1-0 when stretching out from 1X to 2X and is reunited with Junior, who was astride for the last tally. #1 SHAMCAT rounds out the top three.

 

Race  6 

1.Shalako

2.Dublinthepleasure

3.E J's Legacy

#6 SHALAKO is a six year old making just his 26th lifetime start, so obviously, fitness has always been a bit of a question. That being said, gelding finds himself at his lowest level to date, and gets in light for the return. Nevin more than doubles her normative 19% batting average with mid level dirt dashers off hibernations of 184-368 days ( 15-1 or less ) as she's 1 fer 9 in that area with a flat bet profit. #2 DUBLINTHEPLEASURE drops way down this afternoon after running up the track on 12/16, and despite the ugly running line, Alvarado sees fit to ride. Why is that relevant? Well, he's won four of the last five for this clan, and at decent odds as well. #4 E J'S LEGACY may perk up back on a fast surface today.

 

Race  7

1.Papa Shot

2.Blugrascat's Smile

3.Storm Prophet

#4 PAPA SHOT has done some decent work over this oval ( 3:1-0-2 ) and shows a bullet breeze since being freshened up a bit. Meeeeeeek seleection in a race that we really have no feel of. Tread lightly. #2 BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE is 6:2-1-0 when breaking from the wood and is 5:1-0-2 when going short to long on the sand. #7 STORM PROPHET was last seen in a race where four comebackers have gone 4:2-0-1 next time out and has hit the board in his quartet of outings off a layoff; available for purchase for the first time, so expect all systems to be go.

 

Race  8 

1.Frosty Linz

2.Swift Vengeance

3.Mrs Vargas

Not the most appetizing of finales. #7 FROSTY LINZ may have a couple of ugly recent running lines, but let's look at the positives: Earned a decent fig in the lone "second off the L/O" attempt, has a bit of early zip, catches a fast track for only the 2nd time, and ( from a small sampling ) barn is 2 for 6 when adding the hood to dirt dashers off this kind of break ( $5 & $16 ). Demand value. #5 SWIFT VENGEANCE had an interesting sojourn when closing out the exacta in her first try off six flips of the calendar, and is cut in 1/2 off that effort. But here's the question: Where's Junior ? Mixed signals. #3 MRS VARGAS has the finest collection of #'s in the lot, but back to back L/O lines are giving us cause for pause ( or is it pause for cause? ) despite a slide down the class scale. Extremely strong if sound.

 

Aqueduct      ( Current )     1-9      ( $4.10 )       Beatable Favorite       0-1   ( 0.0 % ) Favorites Win %:    5-9     ( 55.5% )

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Aqu Fall/Winter '( Final )   56-308   ( $498.60 )    Beatable Favorites     8-33  ( 24.2% ) Favorites Win %: 111-316 ( 34.2% )

Belmont            ( Final )   51-320   ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-83   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-83     ( 43.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017