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I want to wish you all a very Happy, Healthy, and prosperous New Year !!

With the NHC Championship less than 6 weeks away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #1 Bourbon Did It


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/1 - Happy New Year ! ( And happy unofficial birthday to all the horses !! )

 

Race  1

1.Friend of Liberty

2.Bobby's Song

3.Jc's Shooting Star

Happy "National Hangover Day" everyone !  #3 FRIEND OF LIBERTY bested half the field when going six wide in an eight horse race last out, and the ol' grey mare has a win & a placing from as many tries in "second off the layoff" outings. Gals' best work has come at this trip, and 19% barn is a nifty 6-11 w/2nd off the shelf optional dirt dashers at 20-1 or less ( $3, $5, $6, $24 & $4 x 2 ). Johnny up from Hallandale Beach today. #4 BOBBY'S SONG was extremely gutsy in besting slightly weaker at Philadelphia Park 2 1/2 weeks ago, and how do we not include someone coming in off that career best number. #5 JC'S SHOOTING STAR has ( bizarrely ) only broken from the outside but once in her 41 race resume', and that was a lively third when falling but a neck short. Pilot from the last score returns, and this one may move up a bit.

 

Race  2

1.Tammany Giant

2.Legion Storm

3.Bourbon N Rye

#2 TAMMANY GIANT has been a part of the super in 8 of 9, sheds 90 ounces, drops in from open company, and Toscano is an above average 2-10 with local runners of this ilk who crashed the fiesta less than 37 days ago ( $9 & $23 ). Mild choice. #3 LEGION STORM has a solid collection of speed figures, takes the biggest drop in the biz, and brings in tow a bullet breeze ( a positive sign for one who comes from a bit off the pace. Jockey/trainer combo connected with an easy winner here on Saturday. #6 BOURBON N RYE nearly went all the way in last & switches to a bug today.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 BOURBON DID IT may not do it today, as the "Miracle Man" Servis is 0-10 when giving his dirt sprinters the biggest drop in the biz off breaks of 69 days or more.

 

Race  3

1.Rose of Dublin

2.Big Brown Cat

3.Caralicious

This is the lowest level race they run on this circuit.  #4 ROSE OF DUBLIN can be forgiven the most recent, as the goo simply ain't this gal's deal. That being said, the three outings over a glib surface were legit enough, and gets an upgrade to Manny Man this afternoon. #4 BIG BROWN CAT has displayed improved speed from one start to the next, culminating with a solid showing versus open foes on 11/11. legit once again. #7 CARALICIOUS catches a fast track for just the second time and may jazz things up a bit.

 

Race  4 

1.Bronx Sandman

2.Hit It Once More

3.Backsideofthemoon

#5 BRONX SANDMAN ( perhaps an homage to Mariano Rivera, who used to come into the game to the sounds of "Enter the Sandman" ? ) shoots for the hat trick today, and Capuano more than doubles his normative 18% win rate with optional dirt stayers who scored 14-50 days ago. He's 8:3-2-1 in that regards, with the winners paying $3, $6 & $13. #1A HIT IT ONCE MORE has shown nothing in the last two, but owns a 5:2-0-2 mark right here, and eighth different rider from as many races is having a ( for him ) okay stand. #6 BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON was a late, late scratch the other day, but all must be well because son-in-law Velazquez gets the call today for a runner who excels over this oval. 

 

Race  5

1.Scorpion Bowl

2.Passporttovictory

3.Southern Fried Fun

#7 SCORPION BOWL ( just about the only type of football "Bowl" game they don't have ) has been a part of the superfecta in every dirt start to date, is 3:1-1-0 off a break, and is backed by an excellebt DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 1,826 days, Rice owns a nice 7-17 record with Ozone Park based allowance dirt sprinters off L/O's of 39-79 days ( 10-1 or < ). The mutuels for that sampling were $14, $7, $22, & $4 x 4, and Junior ( who has had some success with this one ) returns. #1 PASSPORTTOVICTORY had the four start winning streak snapped in the last, but it wasn't for a lack of trying, as the five year old was a solid runner up that day. From an itty bitty sampling. 'Miah is 2 fer 5 with 3rd off the shelf optional sprinters on the sand over this oval ( ITM in last ) w/ the winners returning $10 & $14. 4 for 4 mark from the pine --- 1-18 otherwise. ( We may flip flop these selections once the odds come out. ) #2 SOUTHERN FRIED FUN rounds out the top three. ( Which is another way of saying that we don't have anything clever to say. )

 

Race  6 

1.Wisecrack

2.Stone Breaker

3.Lettercarrierhenry

These three and no more for all our rolling action... #4 WISECRACK bested half the field at big odds last time out and drops in class off that performance. Hopefully this one can get a tidier sojourn this afternoon for Contessa, who is 2 fer 4 when dropping his dirt sprinters like this at The Big A ( < 31 days ). #6 STONE BREAKER is confidently hiked up in class after a gutsy ( and well clear )runner up finish behind a next out winner on November the 29th. The winner improved in the Beyer dept. by 10% next time out, and the six total returnees averaged a two point regression in the speed figure department, so we can expect another solid effort from this one here. #5 LETTERCARRIERHENRY immolated some baccala up in the Lakes finale, but deserves another shot over a fast track, no?  NOTE: AS OF 12:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Baby Boss

2.Picco Uno

3.Fair Regis

Once again, we won't be using more any more than this troika for all our bets.  #6 BABY BOSS was in a super duper key race when last seen back in September, as ALL four returnees on the dirt ( one flopped on the grass ) found their way into the winner's circle. The average Beyer upgrade for that quartet was 17.5 pts., and while the layoff here makes the "key" factor a mite less appealing, it's definitely worth noting -- especially if the barn is bringing him back at 100%. This one has fired well fresh, is 3:2-1-0 near the "A" train, and 26% shotcaller is 3 for 5 with optional dirt runners going short off sabbaticals of 83-169 days ( $4, $6 & $6 ). Take it to the bank. #8 PICCO UNO will be led over by Jason "The Greatest Trainer In The History Of The World" Servis, who is 6 for 16 when putting them up for sale in a dirt sprint for the first time ( 49-97 days ) at < 30-1. Must use, especially as three of the seven comebackers got the job done next out, with an average Beyer improvement of 5.6 for the allotment. #3 FAIR REGIS has a nice "declining" mark of 17:5-4-3 on a fast track, and that's reason enough to toss in.  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Gates of Dawn

2.Family Biz

3.Mind Control

We waste no time with Kentucky Derby preps in 2019, as today's feature is the Jerome Stakes ( worth 10 points, I believe ) and some brief history of this event ( won six times by ol Banana Nose ), go right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Stakes . We have three sets of sold trainer stats, so let's get right to 'em in no frills fashion. #5 GATES OF DAWN: John Servis is 3 for 5 with ungraded sprinters on the brown stuff off absences of 1-2 months ( $2, $4 & $17 ). #2 FAMILY BIZ: Barker owns a 3 for 8 ledger with runners fitting this criteria at less than 22-1 ( $4, $9, & $15 ). #3 MIND CONTROL: Sacco is 3 for 5 w/this type at 11-1 or beneath ( 27 to 107 days ) with the winners coming back $7 & $24.

 

Race  9 

1.Gypsum Johnny

2.Dancetrack

3.Crafty Concorde

#5 GYPSUM JOHNNY has to seconds & a third from as many "third off the break" forays,, and has hit the board nearly 3/4's of the time @ the trip. Tossing in a small barn stat which has Rice winning 3 of 5 with their 3rd off the hiatus mid level dirt stock locally, and despite the last place finish on display, looms a solid threat. #4 DANCETRACK has been a part of the triple in 9 of 11 since arriving in the States, and should do just as well over a fast track as a wet one. Draws well for husband/wife combo. #6 CRAFTY CONCORDE ( 90th start today ) is an 11 year old still winning on the biggest circuit in the country, and that's damn cool. Hope this one has a nice home when all's said and done.  NOTE: AS OF 12:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

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Aqu Fall/Winter '( Final )   56-308   ( $498.60 )    Beatable Favorites     8-33  ( 24.2% )  Favorites Win %: 111-316 ( 34.2% )

Belmont            ( Final )   51-320   ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-83   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-83     ( 43.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2018 Final ) 60-366   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-366  ( 34.2% )  +/-: -29.1% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-6 (All Final): 85-568       ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-8 (All Final):2061-10077 ($17,281.50) Beatable Favorites : 304-1085( 28.0% )Favorite's Win %: 3698-10180 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2146-10645 ($18,100.70) Beatable Favorites : 319-1153( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3861-10767 ( 35.9% ) +/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017