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Just a couple of chalky winners on a day with three favorites and five second choices coming in.

As the day is today, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve!! The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day!  

With the NHC Championship less than 6 weeks away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #4 Bettor Bank On It


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/31 - Happy New Year's Eve - Be careful !!

 

Race  1

1.Cognac Cutie

2.Same Kinda Crazy

3.Tied Up

#1 COGNAC CUTIE ( cross entered at Philadelphia Park today, so check the changes ) is 4:1-1-0 in true "3rd off the L/O" attempts, and 10:4-1-1 when starting from the innermost three slots ( 24:5-4-4 from the four hole on out ). Best work has come at this trip, and we'll give this miss a tepid nod. #5 SAME KINDA CRAZY finished second in the lone try at a similar level and Manny Man sees fit to ride. #2 TIED UP is back in the Gullo barn and has enough speed to grab a share in this compact field. 

 

Race  2

1.Coolboy

2.Kid Chocolate

3.Bank Gala

#3 COOLBOY got smacked around a bit at the onset of the debut at the end of November, and takes a substantial drop today for an outfit who ( from a limited sampling ) is 2 for 4 when doing just that to their 2TS'ers @ < 11-1 ( $9 & $5 ). #2 KID CHOCOLATE is another who had some body contact in the last, and ( purportedly ) will be catching a fast track for just the second time. Another shot. #5 BANK GALA ( who WILL be scratched on Sunday, as we hear it ) earned a decent number first time out despite going seven wide, and can improve off that effort for Jimmy.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 BETTOR BANK ON IT more than fills the bill, as Barker is a grotesque oh-fer-36 with maiden claimers who were IN the money 24-63 days ago.

 

Race  3

1.Shape Shifter 

2.Karen's Gem

3.Theodosia

#1 SHAPE SHIFTER has been a part of the exacta in 6 of 7, is a poyfect 2 fer 2 @ the trip, bested a next out winner in last ( who increased the # from a 62 to 73 ), and Rudy is a hot Rod with first off the claim mid level dirt dashers who scored 38-76 days back ( 5-1 or less ), as he's a scintillating 11:8-3-0 w/that type ( positive ROI ). #5 KAREN'S GEM is 2 for 6 locally ( 1-8 at other venues ) and pick up a red hot Junior here. #6 THEODOSIA is 1 for 3 when breaking from the outside and pre-layoff pilot returns. 

 

Race  4 

1.Mazmania

2.Eight Minute Ellie

3.Midnight Sky

#1 MAZMANIA has closed out the tri in her last two starts @ this level, and the lone victory came right here. 8% Sciacca is 14% ( 5-35 ) when using this jock on any dirt sprinter who raced less than three weeks ago ( under 50-1 ), and look at the prices of the winners: $77, $10, $13, $30 & $24 ! #4 EIGHT MINUTE ELLIE has finished second in her last two over this oval and is logical once again. #7 MIDNIGHT SKY is 4:1-0-2 when beginning from the outermost two slots ( 5:0-0-2 from other posts ), and has never been entered this cheaply. As good a shot as any. 

 

Race  5

1.Chronos

2.Giant Sandy

3.Flash of Silver

#7 CHRONOS begins his working life today, and does so with some extremely nifty morning moves on display. Trainer is having a Gargan-tuan start to the winter meet ( 10:4-2-2 ), and this one has some decent sprinter's pedigree in the family tree. Mild selection in a heat where we were unable to eliminate anyone at first glance. #6 GIANT SANDY catches a fast track for just the second time ( we hope ) and gets in with a feather. Price addition. #5 FLASH OF  SILVER is a $5,000 bred animal who went for 100 large at Keeneland two years ago, and can now be yours for 30% of that. Not sure what we're getting here, but we'll chunk in, as there ain't nuttin' else to sink our molars into.  NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Cotton Candy Cutie

2.Exceed the Goal

3.Elegant Gem

#5 COTTON CANDY CUTIE was a dead game runner up at this level on December 13th, and this gal has a win and a placing the only two times she went one turn to two. Rodrigiez ( 19% on the norm ) is a juicy 8-19 with optional dirt stayers who crashed the fiesta less than three dozen days back. Local ledger stands out. #1 EXCEED THE GOAL has been a completely different animal since being transferred over to the Grossman barn, and although this one is going long for the 1st time today, we'd be remiss in excluding. #8 ELEGANT GEM shoots for the hat trick today, and those two scores were the only 2X dirt routes in her career. Extremely dangerous.  NOTE: AS OF 4:23 P.M. Saturday, we are flip flopping our top two choices.

 

Race  7

1.La Fuerza

2.Beachside

3.Pipes

Today's featured race is named after one of the most famous newspaper columnists in New York History ( who covered sports as well ), Damon Runyan. For some history on this man who died 72 years ago, feel free to go to this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damon_Runyon . #6 LA FUERZA has been a force in four of seven ( three of them stakes...one of them here ) and should be able to sit an ideal trip from the six slot. #5 BEACHSIDE shows a decent "Z" pattern in the last, when losing 4 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining double that from that point to the line, and the speed numeros have gone up, up, up, with each passing start. Barn goes to their go-to winter rider. #1 PIPES comes in today off a lifetime best numero and may have some value versus some bigger names. 

  

Race  8 

1.Taptaptap

2.Monaghan

3.Grammi Dance

The racing year comes to a close here, and we'd like to thank all those who follow us at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, and through the Yonkers site all year long. Furthermore, thanks to those who interact with us on Facebook, Twitter, and the Disqus commentary section. We hope we keep it interesting throughout the year, while aiding in your handicapping & wagering. Finally, thanks to those who have been generous in various charities ( most of them racing related ) along the way. We truly have the best & most loyal readers in the country...     #8 TAPTAPTAP will WINWINWIN today. ( We hopehopehope ! ) Grey gelding was switched over to the Ferraro barn before the most recent ( By the way, if you're looking for a trainer, he's as honest as they come -- 40 years and ZERO positives. Also, his stock more often then not, outrun their odds -- always a good sign for a conditioner. ) and put forth the best effort of his life when getting nosed for the place dough. Here's the kicker: 8% trainer is a whopping 45% ( 5 for 11 ) with 3rd off the layoff sand sprinters ( 31 days or less ) who crashed the party in the last & are 20-1 or less today ( with a tag ), and just LOOK at these prices -- $25, $39, $23, $11 & $47 !! Play of the day ! #9  MONAGHAN begins his professional work today, and although the morning moves don't quite get the pulse racing, was sired by an excellent dasher & draws well enough. #10 GRAMMI DANCE closes out our race, day, week, month, and year ! Please be safe tonight, enjoy the 'Odd Couple' marathon, and we'll see you in 2019 !!! 

 


Aqueduct       ( Current )   53-300   ( $485.60 )   Beatable Favorites     8-32  ( 25.0% )  Favorites Win %: 107-308 ( 35.4% )
( As of Monday morning )

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Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-82   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-82     ( 43.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 60-365   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-369  ( 33.9% )  +/-: -28.9% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2005-9768 ($16,782.90) Beatable Favorites : 296-1052( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3587-9863 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final):2090-10334 ($17,602.10)Beatable Favorites : 311-1120( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3750-10448( 35.9% )+/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017