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Just a couple of chalky winners Saturday, but we had a few decent rolling Daily Doubles ( $97, $24 & $124 ).

As it's just days away, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve!! The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day!  

With the NHC Championship less than 6 weeks away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #5 Athwaaq


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Aqueduct - 12/30

 

Race  1

1.Ja's Malibu

2.Abraxan

3.Alphardini

#3 JA'S MALIBU showed some nice early speed before faltering in the overture, and could fare much better with that under her girthstrap if able to catch a flyer beneath a good "send" rider. Under normal circumstances, we would be all over the #2 ABRAXAN in this spot. Filly is an omnifig on paper, and we can't even realistically speculate that a firster can supersede what she's accomplished from a Beyer perspective. The bugaboo for us is that she's immolated a ton of money in the last two, ( one of those was from the pine ) and had positively no excuses in the last. Toss in 8% Sciacca, and we'll pass on the top end. #4 ALPHARDINI went for 8X the stud fee at auction, owns a couple of nice morning moves, and the dam ( who was 1 for 2 in dirt sprints, banking 31K ) has dropped runners who totaled an 11 for 52 mark in this kinda deal ( 321 large ). BIG shot.

 

Race  2

1.Kenyan

2.Zap Zap Zap

3.Haul Anchor

We're seeing the race as easy as 1-2-3 !  #1 KENYAN "saved ground to the upper stretch" when losing by 53 lengths in the latest ( ya gotta love a diligent chart caller ), but this one has always been an in and outer, & the start three back ( a score versus what we would consider similar ) was purdy sharp. Gelding has done his best work at this trip, and ain't facing much. #2 ZAP ZAP ZAP should be no worse than second in this spot ( for all you place punters ) given the affinity for the trip and strip as well as the collection of recent speed figs. Runner was recently claimed by a sharp lady in Diane Balsamo, and the race goes through 'Zap. #3 HAUL ANCHOR gets some much needed class relief this afternoon after beating just four home in his last six calls to the post, and even a win and a claim would have Rudy Rod in about a $3,000 hole here, so caveat emptor. 

 

Race  3

1.Ferraro Entry

2.Pier Forty

3.Scotty Brown

Both the #1 BEBE BANKER & #1A BANK GALA are backed by a 14:4-3-1 trainer stat which has Jimmy at exactly that with maiden special weight dirt dashers off breaks of 27 days or less ( 25-1 or < as well ). The winners in that study paid $45, $6, $4 & $13, and we're hoping that Luzzi can rate this one just off the pace while sitting in a pocket today. #7 PIER FORTY obviously has the last big fig staring atcha, and as it was at least 20% higher than the other dirt try, who knows where the ceiling is in that regards. #5 SCOTTY BROWN was a well beaten 4th in a strung out field 22 days back, but was doing excellent work just prior to that & rates a legit shot to rebound. 

 

Race  4 

1.Kantarmarci Entry

2.Deep Sea

3.Full Salute

#1A HAPPY FARM secure the place bread against slightly tougher last time out, and we like that he's still kept above the price claimed from two back. 16% shotcaller is a lively 6 fer 11 with second off the claim dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta off this kind of break & are 5-1 or under ( $11, $3, $7 & $8 X 3 ). The other half of the entry, #1 DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING is quite the warhorse who has maintained his early zip through 51 battles. #5 DEEP SEA is 2 for 3 right here and has hit the board in all three "second off the L/O" tries on the sand. Hard to fault those siding w/a runner who's partaken in the exacta in six straight. #6 FULL SALUTE is 4 for 11 at the trip, and what the hell's wrong with that? 

 

Race  5

1.Went With the Wind

2.Movie Store

3.Ruvies in Time

#2 WENT WITH THE WIND has won 2 of 3, has ascended the Beyer scale since starting things out, and The As-Man is a poyfect 3 for 3 with third off the layoff optional dirt stock over this oval ( $5, $5 & $6 ). Cohen heading down to Oaklawn soon, so expect him to try to make a solid impression on this barn ( who will have a contingent there ) before splitting the scene. #1 MOVIE STORE split the field in her first tango with winners here on 11/8, and has since been transferred over to Rudy's stable. $100,000 purchase is back in for a tag ( not sure I would've done that right now ), so take a peek pre race. #3 RUVIES IN TIME is another slowly figuring things out, and has worked very well since last seen. 

 

Race  6 

1.Emblazoner

2.Honey Graeme

3.Proportionality

#7 EMBLAZONER improved by more than 35% when stepping up in class for the maiden breaker off the bench on November 18th, and 'Miah owns a snappy 4 for 6 mark with that type in 2nd off the shelf tries at this level ( positive return on investment ). We love the draw and Franco returns. #2 HONEY GRAEME takes the mandatory step up in class today while sill in jail for the first off the purchase try, and sheds some lb.'s off the solid placing. #6 PROPORTIONALITY is 2 for 4 @ this dx. ( 1-13 at other trips ) and may last for a portion.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 ATHWAAQ fills the bill, as Rice is a woeful 0-17 with second off the claim allwance dirt stock who were IN the money last time out ( oddly enough ).

 

Race  7

1.Frostie Anne

2.Bonita Bianca

3.Pride of Saratoga

We have no read on this race whatsoever, so tread lightly.  #2 FROSTIE ANNE has a type of "declining" record over a fast track that we've grown to love ( 22:10-4-1 ) as it shows she has a schnoz for the line. Gal also digs this layout very much, as the nine ITM finishes from ten outings belie, and if you want a little more, she has a win & a showing from as many 1X to 2X forays over the brown stuff. Hungry rider has a shot at some big money here. #8 BONITA BIANCA ( a fantastic 7 for 15 lifetime ) has amazingly gone up and down the Beyer ladder in ALL of her career starts, so today should be a goodie, right? If only the game was that simple. 125 pounds is nothing to sneeze at, so we'll slide underneath. #6 PRIDE OF SARATOGA as good as any for the show dough.

 

Race  8 

1.Hot Mesa

2.Hot Sriracha

3.Over Salty

We are seeing today's finale as a 'hot' one, and foresee no more than our top two finishing in an exacta box fashion ( very rare for us to see it that clearly with how we go about things here ). We'll give the nod to #7 HOT MESA based on having the perfect stalking draw over our secondary choice #1 HOT SRIRACHA ( who will be piloted by a 13% bug who's 1-25 for a 25% trainer....hmmmmmm.... ). #4 OVER SALTY comes in today off ( albeit a low one ) a professional best # and is second off a hiatus for the first time. A 'hot and salty' tri to close things out ?

 


Aqueduct       ( Current )   51-292   ( $475.00 )   Beatable Favorites     8-31  ( 25.8% )  Favorites Win %: 104-300 ( 35.4% )
( As of Sunday morning )

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Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-82   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-82     ( 43.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 60-365   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-369  ( 33.9% )  +/-: -28.9% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2005-9768 ($16,782.90) Beatable Favorites : 296-1052( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3587-9863 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final):2090-10334 ($17,602.10)Beatable Favorites : 311-1120( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3750-10448( 35.9% )+/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017