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Quiet up top yesterday, but we were saved a bit by three exacta boxes of $15, $41 & $81, as well as a $227 Rolling Pick 3 & a successful Beatable Favorite ( of which we've secured another solid year ). 

As it's just days away, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve!! The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day!  

With the NHC Championship less than 6 weeks away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/29

 

Race  1

1.Brazen Prince

2.Angelo's Corner

3.American Wish

#7 BRAZEN PRINCE had bad action in the comebacker over at Philadelphia Park, but still managed to split the field against slightly weaker when showing a bit of a "Z" pattern that day. Colt draws the outside once again, and rates a slight advantage in a grotesque opener. #2 ANGELO'S CORNER displayed absolutely zilch in last ( with no palpable excuse ) and drops 40% off that "effort". Barn goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here, and we'll give him one more shot over a glib surface. #6 AMERICAN WISH hasn't shown much in the A.M.'s for today's bow, but is a half to a 1 for 2 dirt sprinter ( 15K ), and 361 Tomlinson figure is honest enough.

 

Race  2

1.Proud Zip

2.Professor Snape

3.Becker's Galaxy

#1 PROUD ZIP ( one half of the uncoupled Rudy Rod entry, as he probably got hustled a bit to help the race "go" ) drops down to an all time low today, and owns a 2 for 3 record at the trip ( 3-21 otherwise ) while also possessing a fair record here at The Big A. Barn ( from an itty bitty sampling ) is 2 for 5 when dropping runners like this by 50% or more ( $4 & $8 ). Another mild selection in yet another yucky heat. #2 PROFESSOR SNAPE is another taking the plunge today who also has a nice ledger locally, but man, those last two outings really give cause for pause. Examine real carefully pre-race. The soon to be 9 year old #6 BECKER'S GALAXY makes her 61st start today and is still cashing some checks here and there. The o'l grey gelding may last for a share.  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Saturdaynightfling

2.Discount Diva

3.Saratoga Sass

#2 SATURDAYNIGHTFLING has been beset by some layoff lines, but the lifetime nest numero came after one of them, and gal drops a touch in class this afternoon. Once agin, a meeeeeeeeeeeeek choice in a race that would make Bela Lugosi proud. #6 DISCOUNT DIVA begins her working life today for Rice, and gal is displaying a couple'a decent workouts on the ledger ( including a 46 flat at a private training center, if you can believe that ). Needn't be much to make an impression versus these. #5 SARATOGA SASS bested half the field at 42-1 on November 25th, and may catch a fast track for the first time today. Sensible addition.

 

Race  4 

1.Call Me

2.Big Thicket

3.Fun Prospect

#3 CALL ME was extremely gutty when winning off more than an eight month L/O two days after Thanksgiving ( his second win in three tries over the strip ), and we see no reason a repeat isn't within reach today -- especially with a subsequent bullet breeze over the Belmont training track. #5 BIG THICKET has yet to been entered this cheaply and is second off the shelf here. Horse excels at this dx. ( 3 for 7, compared to an 0 fer 4 record otherwise ), and the barn's go to rider sticks around. If you forgive the recent slop try, #6 FUN PROSPECT could be just that if able to get back to the penultimate foray.  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Alisio

2.G.T.Sonia

3.Effiemeister

#2 ALISIO ( one half of the uncoupled McL. entry, as the racing office was apparently working overtime in trying to fill races today ) is an "omnifig" ( as rare as the ivory billed woodpecker ) in that all ( both ) of her numbers supersede anything that anyone in the race has posted ( or will be able to post ). Lockola. #4 G.T. SONIA begins her working life this afternoon, and although the first ten workouts leave  alot to be desired, the one on Sunday seems honest enough. This is the first foal out of a dam who was 2-14 going short on the sand ( making only 23 large ) while being sired by an hombre who was 2 for 4 doing the same ( earned about 71 large in that regards ). #6 EFFIEMEISTER has a couple of sharp training sessions for today's debut ( including a 4th best of 66 move from the gate on December the 6th. This is the first runner out of a mommy who was 2-3 @ this dance ( making more than 100 big ones ) while the daddy was a goody who placed in his only go round at this dist.

 

Race  6 

1.Sassy Agnes

2.Take Me To Hardoon

3.Little Song

#6 SASSY AGNES has yet to miss the exacta in five starts on the brown stuff ( the last quartet in stakes ), and despite immolating baccala at 1-2 in a similar spot a fortnight back, is the deserving choice here once again. #10 TAKE ME TO HARDOON made amends for the Frizette flop with a game showing behind the above at 15-1 next out, and although runners sometimes regress in the followup start to an equipment change, we'd be remiss in excluding. #3 LITTLE SONG was all out to get up by a honkah in the diploma earning effort a month ago, and although the # came back quite lowish, sometimes these  babies can improve by leaps and bounds, & the 376 Tomlinson figure tells us there's ample room for improvement. Anyway, it's 2:39 in the morning now, and I'm starting to see that squiggly line in my eye, so will shut this down and do the remaining troika on the morn...

 

Race  7

1.Miss Mimosa

2.Indy Union

3.Jump Ruler

#2 MISS MIMOSA fought the good fight in a two turn event down at Churchill six weeks back ( finishing 4th at 19-1 ) and cuts back to 1X here. The only other time that happened over a fast track resulted in a gutsy second place finish at Big Sandy, and there's a fantastic DRF Formulator stat in play as well. Over the last 60 months, Mott is a whopping 7 for 9 with Ozone Park based optional dirt stock off breaks of 28-50 days ( 13-1 or beneath ). The ROI for that sampling is sensational, of course, and note that Junior was aboard for the last win. #5 INDY UNION finished third in the lone "2nd off the shelf" try ( in a  Grade 2, no less ), and filly posted her career best fig and also owns a score when cutting back like this. #3 JUMP RULER finished 2nd in this race on 12/7, so why would we eliminate today, especially given the speed shown?

 

Race  8 

1.Caledonian

2.Mr. Buff

3.Testosterstone

#7 CALEDONIAN has hit the board in 7 of 11, despite never having been favored, and comes in today off a lifetime best performance over this oval. Considering that the prior two outings at The Big A yieled figures of just 69 & 58, the last race stands out all the more. Adding to all of this is the fact that Terranova is a terror with ungraded dirt sprinters in New York off absences of 27-54 days @ 20-1 or less. The mutuels for that sampling were $9, $23, & $5 x 3, and capable Dylan ( who had his choice of mounts here ) takes over. #2 MR. BUFF drops two pounds off a win and shoots for the hat trick. Logical. #4 TESTOSTERSTONE blew up the tote board when rallying on the outside to win an optional event a bakers dozen days back and will be going off at generous odds once again.  NOTE: AS OF 12:08, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-4-3.

 

Race  9 

1.Noble Behavior

2.Blessed Honour

3.Eddie Boy

#13 NOBLE BEHAVIOR has shown very little in her collection of outings to date ( has only beaten three home in five career starts ), but with maidens we go back anywhere in the P.P.'s to find something positive ( it helps to land some big prices a times ) as they're maidens for a reason, you know. That being said, the initial call to the post right here produced an adjusted speed figure of 53.4 ( at a higher level ), and there have been nothing but pre and post layoff starts since. What can spur this one forward today? Well, there's a nice 36 & 3/5th's move on Wednesday, and 11% clan is a nice 21:4-3-1 with maiden claimers on the dirt in the 21-126 day range at 60-1 or lower ( $46, $11, $30 & $7 ). #2 BLESSED HONOUR has improved over his last quartet and sheds nine pounds after displaying some early hoof in the most recent. Hmmmm...... #1 EDDIE BOY had an awkward onset to the career opener and deserves another shot.  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 13-7-1.

 


Aqueduct       ( Current )   49-283   ( $465.60 )   Beatable Favorites     8-31  ( 25.8% )  Favorites Win %: 103-291 ( 35.4% )
( As of Saturday morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  15-82   ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-7   ( 57.1% )     Favorites Win %: 36-82     ( 43.9% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 60-365   ( $518.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-53 ( 34.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 125-369  ( 33.9% )  +/-: -28.9% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2005-9768 ($16,782.90) Beatable Favorites : 296-1052( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3587-9863 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final):2090-10334 ($17,602.10)Beatable Favorites : 311-1120( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3750-10448( 35.9% )+/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017