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Profitable day for us here yeaterday, and you can toss in a successful "Beatable Favorite" and a $65 Ice Cold Double to boot !

As it's less than a month away, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve !!   The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day !  

With the NHC Championship less than 2 months away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/23 - Merry Christmas everyone !

 

Race  1

1.Arewehavingfunyet

2.Not About the Nail

3.Woundwithhereyes

#3 AREWEHAVINGFUNYET was a well clear runner up versus slightly tougher 25 days back, and the winner from that day returned to score again, upping the speed figure from 66 to 75 in the process. Should destroy these. #1 NOT ABOUT THE NAIL bombed out in the comebacker, but is a threat to hit the board if able to revert to the pre-layoff outings. #2 WOUNDWITHHEREYES has only beaten home nine in as many calls to the post, but we always go back up to three starts when assessing things, and this one's adjusted number from the 3rd back is honest enough. Wouldn't need much to close out the tri versus these. 

 

Race  2

1.Shiloh Lane

2.Pragmatist

3.Novus

#6 SHILOH LANE has yet to run over a fast track, but finds himself at his lowest level to date and has been gelded since the most recent. Today is this runner's first try off a legitimate layoff, and Sciacca ( 8% day to day ) is 2 fer 8 with his maiden claiming dirt dashers in the 53-130 day bracket at 24-1 or lower ( $10 & $22 ). #1 PRAGMATIST comes in today off a career best numero and is another dropping down a few notches. Winner from the most recent came back to get the job done once again. #4 NOVUS completes our troika of runners sliding down the ladder and has hit the board in both starts right here; logical.

 

Race  3

1.American Power

2.Joopster

3.Blessed Halo

#4 AMERICAN POWER is wheeled back in just 72 hours by Rice, who owns a crisp 5:3-1-1 mark when having runners return in 5 days or less ( < 2-1 ). Colt has the best collection of speed figures in the bunch, and has done well over this course. #6 JOOPSTER owns some nice speed, and apprentice ( who is represented by the son of the owner ) climbs aboard for the first time today. #2 BLESSED HALO is another zippy sort who finished second in the lone turf to dirt try. Jockey upgrade to Franco duly noted.  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  4 

1.Science Fiction

2.Big Mischief

3.Appreciate

#6 SCIENCE FICTION was a well beaten -- but well clear -- runner up in a nearly identical spot on November 18th, and the numero earned from that day lays over many in the allotment. Diodoro is a whopping 8 fer 14 with 3rd off the break maiden claiming dirt stock at 5-2 or lower, and go to rider returns. #8  BIG MISCHIEF has been laid up for two months after the Cox claim, but overall body of work says that this one needs to be included. Not digging the 9-5 price, but waddya gonna do? The #2 apparently didn't APPRECIATE something in the 10/3 event, so went MIA for a while, and breeding tells us she may take to glib going. 

 

Race  5

1.Oh Shea Can U See

2.Flatexcel

3.Felix in Fabula

#4 OH SHEA CAN U SEE has broken on top in four of the last five ( winning three of them ), so obviously the break is key. Gelding draws nicely, but as the front wraps went on in the latest, it would behoove you to take a peek pre race. #8 FLATEXCEL is another zippy sort who will obviously have to outbreak the above to have any shot whatsoever, but runner whistled two back when in for this price, and is a threat with the hot bug assigned. #2 FELIX IN FABULA outran his odds when confidently moved up in class for the first off the claim try, ( finishing 3rd at 17-1 ) and is brought back to that level today. Switch from Boulanger to Maragh may help a bit, as would a fast surface. 

 

Race  6 

1.Irish Banker

2.Star Sweep 

3.Abraxan (AE)

#12 IRISH BANKER split the field when last seen in a similar spot up in Togatown, and although the number came back a bit lowish that day, thiis one now catches a fast track for the second time, and sometimes these babies can improve by leaps and bounds. Check out that near bullet gate breeze on Wednesday. #9 STAR SWEEP hasn't shown much in the morning for today's bow, but is a January bred facing some younger foes, and is a half to a 5 for 24 dirt dasher who banked nearly 173K. #13 ABRAXAN (AE) is on the outside looking in, and even though this one has excellent speed #'s, we really don't like how she lacked punch in the last and will leave beneath here.  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Point to Remember 

2.Vincento

3.Mo Diddley 

#7 POINT TO REMEMBER has essentially improved over each and every of his seven calls to the post, and although a nibbler by rote ( recent placing behind a next out winner who improved two pts. in the subsequent score ) we're assuaged by the fact that Double J is a dapper 7:5-1-1 w/allowance dirt stayers who crashed the party 19-59 days back ( 3-1 or lower ). Fella appears solid. #3 VINCENTO shoots for the hat trick today and is 1 for 3 off the bench. #1 MO DIDDLEY got the job done the only time he went green to brown and owns enough speed to grab a slice of fruitcake. 

 

Race  8 

1.Always Sunshine

2.Recruiting Ready 

3.Runaway Lute

#4 ALWAYS SUNSHINE duked it out early on in the game when facing Grade 3 foes on Thanksgiving Day and faded a bit late in the game before finishing 3rd. Soon to be seven year old "horse" still has all his parts ( you hang in there, buddy boy ! ) and is reunited with his favorite pilot in Pennington. Slight edge in a wide open feature. #2 RECRUITING READY hasn't faced the starter in more than half a year, but has been working bullets down at Palm Meadows for the comebacker, and has tallied off the shelf in the past. #3 RUNAWAY LUTE rounds out the top three. 

 

Race  9 

1.Confederation

2.Nolinski

3.Ten Twenty Nine

Once again, I'd like to wish all our readers, followers, fans & friends a VERY Merry Christmas. Be safe and enjoy your seven fish salad, wherever you are... #1 CONFEDERATION had a slightly awkward sojourn in teh first try against winners, but is 3rd off the L/O while shedding some weight and adding blinks. Just may perk up. #8 NOLINSKI had no excuse when spitting the bit in the first off the claim try, but we'll give him a chance to make amends today for Gullo. #2 TEN TWENTY NINE hasn't been led over to the races in six flips of the calendar, but notorious nibblah totes the lightest impost of his career and has done okay work locally. 



Aqueduct       ( Current )   46-266   ( $453.70 )   Beatable Favorites     8-30  ( 27.3% )  Favorites Win %: 97-274   ( 35.4% )

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Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  13-78   ( $104.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 3-6   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 34-78     ( 43.6% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 58-365   ( $500.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 17-52 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 123-365  ( 33.7% )  +/-: -31.4% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2003-9764 ($16,765.00) Beatable Favorites : 295-1051( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3585-9859 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final):2088-10330 ($17,584.20)Beatable Favorites : 310-1119( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3748-10444( 35.9% )+/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017