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Just a couple of winners, a $7 quinella, and a $73 ice cold triple on a washout of a day.

As it's less than a month away, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve !!   The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day !  

With the NHC Championship less than 2 months away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #7 Annette's Humor


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/22

 

Race  1

1.Sweet Avery

2.Cottonwood Falls 

3.Cadeau de Paix

These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #4 SWEET AVERY has been a bit light from a speed figure aspect in the last two, but lone "3rd off the L/O" try yielded a gutsy ( and daylight clear ) runner up finish. Could pose a threat at a price if able to shake free early on. #3 COTTONWOOD FALLS will be your deserving favorite here, and justifiably so, given the solid last race figaro. Her race to lose. #1 CADEAU DE PAIX ( "Peace Offering" ) was a lively runner up off the bench in the most recent and cam move forward off that effort. 

 

Race  2

1.Halloween Horror

2.Truly a Moon Shot

3.No Distortion

#4 HALLOWEEN HORROR crushes. #1 TRULY A MOON SHOT drops in class, adds Junior, and may land a share despite Chad Summers being awful with those he has claimed. #2 NO DISTORTION has hit the board in two of three, and we often find ourselves landing on runners from this outfit.  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Sheza Diva

2.Mrs. Crews

3.Takecharge Mirella

#1 SHEZA DEVA ( and once again, the connections of Maymo/Kazdan ) made us look "Brilliant !" when going all the way at 15-1 at first asking about a month over in Queens, and you tell me why this one can't repeat today. #2 MRS. CREWS goes from a 14% conditioner to miracle man Diodoro today, and does so having never missed the exacta in any one turn event. Totally logical. #4 TAKECHARGE MIRELLA is back in with the gals today and has a touch of back class as well. 

 

Race  4 

1.Pioneerof New York 

2.Kathy's Cause

3.Miss Flambe

#10 PIONEEROF NEW YORK takes the biggest drop in the game today, and Casse is as classy as Freddie Blassie when doing that to dashers making this surface switch off breaks of 57 days or lower at 13-1 or <. He's 3 fer 5 in that regards, with the winners coming back $9, $7 & $8, and as this one was bred for $110,000, you'd have to assume it's all systems go. #4 KATHY'S CAUSE is another taking the plunge today, and this one closed out the tri in the lone dirt foray at 14-1. Stone hops on, and despite the frigid record with this barn of late, we'll chunk in. #5 MISS FLAMBE is confidently hiked up in the first start off the claim by Papa Englehart, and that;s reason enough to include.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 ANNETTE'S HUMOR doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  5

1.Let Me Go First

2.Someday Jones

3.Ironclad

#7 LET ME GO FIRST has a modicum of class and rates the meeeeeeeekest of selections in a race we have absolutely no read on. Sorry. #1 SOMEDAY JONES is 7 for 12 over a glib surface, and how the gosh-darn do we ignore a stat such as that? #2 IRONCLAD bested slightly weaker in the 11/16 event, and did so after being stepped up after the purchase, and we like the 25% rise in class once again. 3 for 6 mark at the distance pops off the page. 

 

Race  6 

1.Moo Lah

2.Coach Villa

3.True Gold

Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with the #8 MOO LAH ( doubtfully named after the old time wrestler, 'The Fabulous Moolah' ), as there is one crisp gate breeze ( a 3rd best of 153 deal on 11/18 ) amidst a bevy of ordinary workouts. Sire was a sensational 7 for 13 going one turn on the dirt, and as this one gets in light, could pose a big threat if able to break well. Nick Zito has fallen on some hard times of late, but #7 COACH VILLA is logical in this spot. Runner was a gamely and clear runner up against what we would consider similar company last time out, and 8% shotcaller is 3 for 5 ( $5, $11 & $21 ) with runners of this ilk off breaks of 22-42 days ( 10-1 or less ). Not surprising to see Cohen ride, as Zito will have a string at Oaklawn this winter, and that's where this rider'll be heading. #2 TRUE GOLD may move up with blinkers today. 

 

Race  7

1.P J Advantage

2.Suas

3.Smokin Platinum

#3 P J ADVANTAGE has a groovy type of "declining" record which we've grown to love ( 11:6-2-0 ) is 3 for 6 at the trip, and Barrow has that same mark with allowance dashers on the sand who have won off this type of break ( $8, $9 & $10 ). #13 SUAS came along nicely to close out the exacta in the most recent try, and Rudy Rod is a scintillating 9-20 with with Aqueduct based allowance dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 one to two fortnights ago & are 10-1 or undah today ( positive return on investment ). #4 SMOKIN PLATINUM has been a part of the super in 6 of 7 and has the eye cups slapped on today. 

 

Race  8 

1.Backsideofthemoon

2.Name Changer

3.Bal Harbour

Featured race of the day today is the Queens County, and as it's a highly competitive one, we'll shoot for a price. #5 BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON has been fairly steady throughout his career, and the soon to be seven year old ridgling has done excellent work both at this trip and over this strip. O'Brien charge is 2 for 3 when going one turn to two ( 2-28 otherwise ) and note that the hood is re-affixed this afternoon. #1 NAME CHANGER is an extremely consistent sort ( 16:7-1-4 ) who is also 5:2-0-2-1 off the shelf, 2 for 3 @ the dx., and won the only time when breaking from the pine. Hard to fault those taking a favorable view. #4 BAL HARBOUR shoots for the hat trick today and is 1 for 2 when going one turn to two.  NOTE: AS OF 3:31, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Wanna Be Regal

2.Catania Rose

3.Ramblin' Ma'am

We won't be going any deeper than this troika for all our bets. #4 WANNA BE REGAL hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but that effort ( losing by less than a length at boxcar odds ) was also off a break ( albeit a shorter one ). A bullet preceded that start as well --- just like today. #5 CATANIA ROSE is pretty much approaching professional maiden status these days, but there are a few decent running lines interspersed amidst the bad ones, and with maidens we go anywhere in their P.P.'s for value, as they're winless for  reason, you know. #8 RAMBLIN' MA'AM obviously must be included, given the last two figs and all, but we'll leave beneath as barn is a woeful 1 for their last 29 with all horses not named Mind Your Biscuits.  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE ARE TAKING THE #5 OUT OF OUR SELECTIONS AND PUTTING THE #14 3RD

 


Aqueduct       ( Current )   44-257   ( $430.70 )   Beatable Favorites     8-29  ( 27.6% )  Favorites Win %: 94-265   ( 35.5% )
( As of Saturday morning )

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                  Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  13-78   ( $104.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 3-6   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 34-78     ( 43.6% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 58-365   ( $500.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 17-52 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 123-365  ( 33.7% )  +/-: -31.4% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2003-9764 ($16,765.00) Beatable Favorites : 295-1051( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3585-9859 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final):2088-10330 ($17,584.20)Beatable Favorites : 310-1119( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3748-10444( 35.9% )+/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017