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Just one chalky winner on the card yesterday, but we werre backed up by a $26 Quinella Box, two exacta boxes of $47 & $45 ( along with a cold one for $15 ) and a triple box paying $138. 

As it's less than a month away, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve !!   The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day !  

With the NHC Championship less than 2 months away ( $3 million total prize money ), I am once again proud to announce that I will be donating 15% of any profits to 3 great charities --  Old Friends at Cabin Creek http://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/ ( benefiting retired horses ), Mercy Ships https://www.mercyships.org/ ( hospital ships that provide free lifesaving surgeries for people where medical care is nearly non-existent )  & Pets for Vets   ( providing a second chance to shelter dogs by rescuing, training, and matching them with American veterans who need a companion pet ). Feel free to match in whole or part !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #1 Tommy T


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/21

 

Race  1

1.Ivy's College Fund

2.Sandy Belle

3.Miss Marion

#3 IVY'S COLLEGE FUND was claimed when finishing last as the chalk back in October, but Levine has given her some time to recuperate from that lackluster effort, and gal was a solid runner up in one of two outings off the shelf. Meeeeeeekes of choices in a crummy opener. #1 SANDY BELLE is 2 for 3 here , 3 fer 8 at the trip, and totes the lightest impost of her career. Chance to rebound off the claim/layoff. #5 MISS MARION won by half'a dozen in the lone foray off a break and Junior hops on.  

 

Race  2

1.Trance

2.Americano

3.Saratoga Style

#1 TRANCE got up in time to snag the sheepskin about three weeks back, and given he Beyered just about the same in the bow, it's safe to assume that it wasn't an aberration. There ain't no world beaters here, and a repeat is well within reach. #3 AMERICANO regressed a bit in the first try vs. winners and can rebound against this assemblage. #2 SARATOGA STYLE is a bit light from a speed figure perspective, but sheds weight off a score ( which we always dig ), and although Contessa would've preferred this one not been moved up in last ( so he could've kept that maiden condition while in form ), he finds a soft spot for the obligatory hike.

 

Race  3

1.Fire Command

2.Mazmania

3.Malarkey

#4 FIRE COMMAND is one of several runners DiPrima has been sent from California recently, and this one has a touch of talent, as the six superfecta finishes from seven starts belies. Filly's lone win ( and lifetime best # ) came when sprinting on the sand, and although barn wins at a low rate, they know how to get speed out of their stock. Would be no surprise. #5 MAZMANIA is pretty much a chronic nibblah ( 25:1-3-3 ) but exits a race where four returnees have gone 2-1-0 in their subsequent outings ( three different starts ) with an avg. improvement of 3.7 points. #3 MALARKEY has fared well @ this trip and over this strip. 

 

Race  4 

1.Bel Cuore

2.Central Banking

3.Tousled

#2 BEL CUORE ( "Beautiful Heart" in Italian...dam was 'Hearted' ) got smacked around a bit in the first off the layoff try, ( when front wraps were added ) but can be forgiven that, as it was over a wet track as well. The good news, is that Nevin is heaven with second off the L/O maiden claiming dirt stock at 10-1 or less ( 8-44 days ) with an ROI of $2.50+. Double D a capable replacement for Manny Man, who lands on our second choice #7 CENTRAL BANKING. This firster has a bullet gate breeze on display fo the overture, so right off the bat, merits inclusion just because of that. Weaver ( from a small sampling ) is a dreamy  6:2-4-0 with first time starters fitting ALL these exact parameters ( any track ) with the winners returning $11 & $9. #9 TOUSLED hails from the underrated Jimmy Ferraro barn, and conditioner who's not known for his prowess w/maidens, has done extremely well over his last 33 starts with those under 50-1:( 5-10-3-5 ... the winners paid $4, $11, $14, $18 & $98...two placings were at 20-1 & 38-1...two showings at 16-1 & 34-1 ). Dismiss at your own peril.  NOTE: AS OF 1:16, DUE TO A LATE, LATE  SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  5

1.Pecan Pattie

2.Aikenetta

3.Wisconsin Night

#6 PECAN PATTIE ( Peppermint Pattie's sister? ) returned off the full length of a calendar sabbatical to whistle right here during Turkey week, and Gargan is a crisp 3 for 5 with 2nd off the shelf maiden breakers in dirt dashes at 14-1 or less ( $9 & $5 x 2 ). Love the draw. #1 AIKENETTA has done well at this dist., has a win & a showing in the lone two outings when starting from the wood, and lost by a neck in the only try carrying this weight ( or less ). #2 WISCONSIN NIGHT has yet to miss a super and should be right there once again.

 

Race  6 

1.Accabonac Harbor

2.Dontcallmefrancis

3.Rose of Dublin

#10 ACCABONAC HARBOR ( located right here in Long Island ) smacked into the starting apparatus at the onset of the debut back on the first of August, before showing nice early zip and fading after a half. As often happens with the babies, something went wrong that day or shortly thereafter, and gal was sent to the sidelines. Lasix is now part of the package as the biggest drop in the game is employed by Papa Englehart, who is a perfect 3 for 3 when going green to brown with his second timers going short ( $14, $6 & $10 ). Note that 6 of 7 returnees from that day hit the board next time out. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #4 DONTCALLMEFRANCIS ( a famous line from "Stripes" ! ) here, as there's a bullet gate breeze amidst a bevy of ordinary moves. Additionally. GG is 3 fer 6 with those fitting all these conditions ( any venue ) at 80-1 or less. The winners paid $11, $18 & $14, and there's a sub category of 2-3 for those on this strip. #1 ROSE OF DUBLIN can be forgiven two of the last three, as apparently she can't stand up in the goo, but the penultimate outing, however, tells us that she belongs.  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Fled

2.Can'tweallgetalong

3.Baseline

#6 FLED ( allegedly ) will catch a fast track today, and that will have been a first for the last 2+ years, as this one has ran over a wet surface the last half dozen outings ( and 6 of 8 ). That having been said, the career best number came over a glib surface, and fella finds himself at his lowest level to date. Slimmest of margins. #5 CAN'TWEALLGETALONG gamely bested slightly weaker in the most recent, and we see no reason to leave out of the mix today. #2 BASELINE has some speed and may last for a share.

 

Race  8 

1.American Lincoln

2.Thebigfundamental

3.Papa Zulu

#4 AMERICAN LINCOLN hasn't seen the scene since late July, but colt was an honest third in the only try off a break, and Rice is nice with locally based optional dirt sprinters off L/O's of 92-184 days ( 16-1 or lower ). She's 4 for 8 in that regards, and barn's winter go-to rider returns. #8 THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL was doing some excellent work last year, but the wheels came off for one reason or another, and nor returns with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. On that note, T.P. has won with half of his octet of similar starters in a dirt sprint ( 150 days or > ) w/mutuels of $6, $5, $3 & $4. We;ll never pass up an opportunity to incorporate Carol Cedeno ( #9 PAPA ZULU ) in the top three, as not only is she the best female rider in the country, but we've always felt she could hang with the upper echelon on any circuit -- if given a legit shot.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 TOMMY T fills the bill, as Bobby B is 0-16 in all pertinent categories. 

 

Race  9 

1.D J's Favorite

2.Cool as You Like

3.Our Girl Abby

#3 D J'S FAVORITE has been disappointing in the last three, so Linda makes this gal available for purchase for the first time today while enlisting Alvarado. Ho hum choice in an uninspiring finale. #1 COOL AS YOU LIKE was a well beaten 3rd behind two next out winners in the lone "third off the bench" foray, and has some speed while drawing the inside. #5 OUR GIRL ABBY shoots for the hat trick today ( both wins over this oval ( and is also a sensational 9:4-3-0 @ the dx. ; must use.  NOTE: AS OF 12:08, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Aqueduct       ( Current )   42-248   ( $416.10 )   Beatable Favorites     8-28  ( 28.6% )  Favorites Win %: 91-256   ( 35.6% )
( As of Friday morning )

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Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138  ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  13-78   ( $104.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 3-6   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 34-78     ( 43.6% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 58-365   ( $500.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 17-52 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 123-365  ( 33.7% )  +/-: -31.4% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2003-9764 ($16,765.00) Beatable Favorites : 295-1051( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3585-9859 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final):2088-10330 ($17,584.20)Beatable Favorites : 310-1119( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3748-10444( 35.9% )+/-:  -14.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017